Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS Melbourne, FL

000 
WWUS52 KMLB 121635
SVSMLB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1231 PM EDT TUE JUN 12 2007

FLC127-121715-
/O.CON.KMLB.SV.W.0041.000000T0000Z-070612T1715Z/
VOLUSIA FL-
1231 PM EDT TUE JUN 12 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 PM EDT
FOR VOLUSIA COUNTY...

AT 1223 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE SEVERAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 
PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THE 
STRONGEST STORMS WERE LOCATED OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS WEST OF  
DAYTONA BEACH...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO PONCE 
INLET...NEW SMYRNA BEACH...EDGEWATER...AND OAK HILL.

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.
WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A
TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

PEA SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED IN DAYTONA BEACH AND A WIND GUST TO 42 
MPH WAS REPORTED AT DAYTONA BEACH AIRPORT.

LAT...LON 2940 8106 2926 8143 2876 8104 2893 8071

$$

KELLY

000 
WWUS52 KMLB 121718
SVSMLB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
115 PM EDT TUE JUN 12 2007

FLC127-121724-
/O.EXP.KMLB.SV.W.0041.000000T0000Z-070612T1715Z/
VOLUSIA FL-
115 PM EDT TUE JUN 12 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY HAS 
EXPIRED...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE SEVERE STORMS 
THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD WEAKENED AND ARE NOW LOCATED OVER OAK 
HILL AND EDGEWATER...MOVING SOUTHEAST. THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN 
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. NONETHELESS...HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG 
WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL CONTINUE IN SOUTHEAST VOLUSIA 
COUNTY THROUGH 2 PM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

LAT...LON 2940 8106 2926 8143 2876 8104 2893 8071

$$

KELLY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1205 PM EDT TUE JUN 12 2007

...NUMEROUS STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...

UPDATE...HAVE ADDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TO CWF AND ZFP.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY. EXPECT CONVECTIVE
LINE APPROACHING NORTHERN CWA TO CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHWARD INTO
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. GREATEST THREAT CONTINUES TO BE
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL...WITH A SMALL THREAT FOR AN
ISOLATED TORNADO MAINLY ALONG EASTERN PENINSULA WHERE BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS MOST LIKELY. SKYWARN NET WILL BE ACTIVATED FROM KMLB BY
1700Z.

.DISCUSSION...TODAY/TONIGHT...VORTICITY LOBES WITHIN CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PENINSULA AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ATMOSPHERE WILL
BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING
MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW. SOUTHWARD PROPAGATION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
AND DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT OF SEA/LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR CONVERGENCE/LIFT.

EXPECT SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ECFL THIS AFTERNOON...
BECOMING NUMEROUS ACROSS NORTHERN HALF LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING.
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE SHOULD PROPAGATE SLOWLY INLAND ACROSS COASTAL
COUNTIES...BUT WITH WESTERLY STEERING FLOW...EXPECT INTERIOR
STORMS/OUTFLOWS AND GULF COAST BREEZE BOUNDARY TO INTERACT WITH THE
ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE PENINSULA AFTER
20Z...RESULTING IN GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS. THIS
SCENARIO/TIMING IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT LOCAL 2.5/8KM WRF MODEL.
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND HAIL APPEAR TO THE BE THE GREATEST
THREATS...HOWEVER HIGH LOW-LEVEL HELICITY ALONG BOUNDARIES...
PRIMARILY NEAR THE EAST COAST...SUGGESTS A LOW TORNADO THREAT AS
WELL. CURRENT HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IN GOOD SHAPE. ZFP/CWF
INCLUDE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG STORMS...BUT MAY UPDATE AROUND MID DAY
TO EMPHASIZE SEVERE WIND/HAIL THREAT.

WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT...EVEN
THOUGH THE LOCAL AIR MASS WILL BE WELL WORKED OVER BY THEN...GIVEN
INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT NMRS IFR TSRA TO FORM AFT 18Z...AND LINGERING
WELL PAST 00Z. TAFS SHOW EARLIER START TIMES FOR INLAND AIRPORTS
GIVEN EXPECTED W-E MOVEMENT. STRONG WIND GUSTS (35KT+) AND HAIL
POSSIBLE WITH SOME STORMS TODAY...MOST LIKELY KDAB/KMLB/KVRB VCNTY
20Z-02Z.

&&

.MARINE...BOATING CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BENIGN...EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF SCATTERED CONVECTION. STORMS
MOVING OFFSHORE WILL POSE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT WITH WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 35KT AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS. OTHERWISE...LIGHT SYNOPTIC FLOW
TYPICAL FOR THIS OF YEAR WILL GENERALLY RESULT IN 2-3 FT SEAS.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SPRATT
LONG TERM/FIRE WX....PENDERGRAST
SVR WX/RADAR...KELLY/SHARP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
612 AM EDT TUE JUN 12 2007

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
122100-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM COCOA BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM COCOA BEACH TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
612 AM EDT TUE JUN 12 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

SUFFICIENT MOISTURE COUPLED WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA AND LAKE BREEZES
AND AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TODAY...WITH
AN INCREASED THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT AND INCREASING MID LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR
STORMS TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL...AND AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. FREQUENT TO
EXCESSIVE LIGHTING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORE INTENSE STORM
CELLS.

THE THREAT APPEARS TO BE PARTICULARLY HIGH FROM AROUND THE SAINT
JOHNS RIVER TO THE VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTY BEACHES.

...FLOOD IMPACT...

GIVEN THE BOUTS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED OVER
PARTS OF THE AREA SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE MONTH...MANY LOCATIONS
ARE BECOMING MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO TEMPORARY FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN
POORLY DRAINED LOW LYING AREAS. STORMS TODAY WILL BE EASILY CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING IN EXCESS IF TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL IN ONE HOUR...
WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING.

...MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...

A SQUALL LINE MOVING RAPIDLY OFFSHORE NORTHEAST FLORIDA WILL AFFECT
THE VOLUSIA COUNTY OFFSHORE WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. INTENSE LIGHTNING
STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER LAND TODAY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THE ATLANTIC
WATERS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY TO MID EVENING. STRONG WINDS
...LOCALLY HIGH SEAS...FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND HAIL
ARE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS TODAY. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
STORMS OVER THE ATLANTIC APPEARS TO BE NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
DECREASING COVERAGE OF STORMS FORECAST FROM THURSDAY INTO THIS
WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER. FORMAL ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN
MAY BE NEEDED...AS THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLOOKED ALL
OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS.
AS SUCH...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WATCH TO BE ISSUED TODAY.

CRISTALDI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1158 AM EDT TUE JUN 12 2007

FLZ041-044-141-121700-
COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
1158 AM EDT TUE JUN 12 2007

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING NORTHERN LAKE
AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES...

AT 1150 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG STORMS FROM 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF ORMOND BY THE SEA TO
31 MILES WEST OF LAKE GEORGE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH. THESE
STORMS HAVE HAD A HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE IN ST AUGUSTINE
EARLIER THIS MORNING.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STRONG STORM INCLUDE ORMOND BEACH...
DAYTONA BEACH...PIERSON....DELAND...PAISLEY.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH...WHICH CAN CAUSE
UNSECURED OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS OR CAUSE POWER
OUTAGES. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY AND MAY
CAUSE TEMPORARY FLOODING OF SOME ROADS. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL
THE STORM PASSES. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
FUNNEL CLOUDS.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF SMALL HAIL...PEA TO DIME SIZE...WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS.

PERSONS OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IN ENCLOSED BUILDINGS OR HARD
TOPPED VEHICLES.

KELLY