Red Flag Warning 6, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
346 AM EST TUE FEB 6 2007

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY...MID LVL CLOUDINESS PROGD TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY MID DAY WITH UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS ALSO THINNING BY
LATE AFTERNOON AS H2 JET AXIS SLIP SE FROM CENTRAL FL TWD LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL MOVE
SOUTH TWD THE NRN PENINSULA BY LATE IN THE DAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
BECOMING NNE/NE BY LATE AFTERNOON. SHOULD FINALLY SEE A GOOD DEAL
OF LATE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN SECTIONS. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LWR 60S FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA TO AROUND 70 DEGS
FOR MARTIN COUNTY. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT LIGHT RAIN CHANCE FOR
MARTIN COUNTY VERY EARLY THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT...SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL BISECT THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
SHOULD SEE SOME LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S FROM NW VOLUSIA AND ACROSS THE
NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS IN NRN LAKE COUNTY. WILL HOLD OFF ON PATCHY
FROST MENTION FOR FAR NRN SECTIONS WITH H9-H8 FLOW PICKING UP FROM
THE W/WNW TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS FAR NRN SECTIONS.

WEDNESDAY...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA AND WEAK
CONFLUENT FLOW IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL PROVIDE A SUBSIDENT
ATMOSPHERE. AFTER A CHILLY START WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S NORTHWEST AREAS TO MID/UPPER 40S EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
TREASURE COAST FORT PIERCE SOUTH...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO TOP OUT AROUND CLIMO VALUES.

THURSDAY...GUIDANCE SHOWING WEAK VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS THE GULF AND
SOUTHEAST. MOISTURE LESS THAN PREVIOUS RUN WHICH WOULD ACCOUNT FOR
THE ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE POP THURSDAY.

FRIDAY...INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS AND WEAK MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST SECTION/TREASURE COAST OF THE CWA
SUGGEST 20 POP MAX DURING THE DAY.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...BROAD TROUGHING ALOFT AND AND ONSHORE FLOW FROM
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND FLORIDA WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES MID/UPPER 60S NORTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS AND LOW TO MID
70S ALONG THE COAST.

MONDAY...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND ARE MODERATED
BY ONSHORE FLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND CLIMO VALUES OF LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...MID LVL CIGS FROM KOBE-KSUA WILL TREND SOUTHWARD THROUGH
18Z WITH BKN CIRRUS BECOMING SCATTERED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EAST
CENTRAL TODAY. SKC-FEW250 TONIGHT WITH LGT TO CALM WINDS AT AREA
TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...WILL KEEP ADVISORY FOR SEAS UP ACROSS GULF STREAM FOR THE
SRN OFFSHORE WATERS TIL MID MORNING (WHERE SEAS OF 5-7 FT CAN BE
EXPECTED EARLY)...THEN DECREASING WINDS/SEAS LATE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS SFC RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SWD TWD THE WATERS. WEDNESDAY-
SATURDAY...SURFACE RIDGE IN THE AREA SHIFTING LATE IN THE WEEK
WILL PRODUCE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW. GFS/S DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE GA/SC COAST LOOKS SUSPECT. ECMWF SOLUTION OF RIDGING AND
NORTHERLY WIND SURGE WORKING DOWN THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY
NIGHT LOOKS MORE PLAUSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WILL UPGRADE WATCH AREA TO A RED FLAG TODAY FOR NRN
INTERIOR SECTIONS WHERE MIN RHS WILL BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 25-35
PERCENT. NORTHERLY WINDS EARLY WILL VEER TO THE NNE/NE THIS AFTN.
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER DAY OF POTENTIALLY LONG DURATIONS OF RH/S
BELOW 35 PERCENT. MOISTURE LEVELS RECOVER ENOUGH THURSDAY-SATURDAY
TO KEEP MIN RH/S IN THE 40S THE REST OF THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  60  39  72  45 /   0   0   0  10
MCO  65  43  74  47 /   0   0   0  10
MLB  64  45  73  47 /  10   0   0  10
VRB  67  47  74  50 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
     SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN LAKE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN THE GULF STREAM UNTIL
     10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WATERS FROM COCOA BEACH TO JUPITER
     INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER
LONG TERM....WIMMER