Red Flag Warning 24, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
220 AM EST FRI MAR 9 2007

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY...WEAK VORT AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS NORTH OF
THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST WILL PRODUCE AN ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND
TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE CLIMO...WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 80 DEGREES
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. NAM-WRF SUGGESTS SOME PRECIP WILL FORM ACROSS
THE INTERIOR COUNTIES ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...THOUGH THIS IS
LIKELY OVERDONE. GFS IS THE PREFERRED MODEL BY HPC AND IS MUCH DRIER
WITH POPS AT OR BELOW 10 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL PVA WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE STATE...MAINLY
ENHANCING SHOWER ACTIVITY OFFSHORE. LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN TOO
WEAK TO ADVECT THESE SHOWERS BACK TOWARDS THE COASTLINE. INCREASED
CLOUD COVER COMBINED WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN MINS A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S NEAR ORLANDO THE
MID 60S ALONG THE TREASURE COAST.

SAT-MON...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE US EXCEPT FOR A SHORT
WAVE AND A BIT OF A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS MAINLY THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ON SHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE COASTAL
WATERS BUT THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN BY SUNDAY. CURIOUSLY
ENOUGH...SWELL CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE TO OVER 7 FEET...SEE MARINE
DISCUSSION BELOW.

TUE-THU...LOOKING WEST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATES SURFACE
CLOSED LOW WILL FORM OVER TEXAS AND THE NORTHWEST GULF. BEING CUT
OFF FROM THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE RATHER
SLOWLY EAST...JUST SOUTH OF THE LA COAST BY WED MORNING. THE SURFACE
FEATURE WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLE BY TIME IT DRIFTS INTO THE FLORIDA
COAST BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER
THE AREA BEGINNING WEDNESDAY EVENING...THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR...STRATOCU TODAY AND ALTOCU TONIGHT. NO
LOW CIGS OR SIGNIFICANT OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...ONSHORE FLOW MAY APPROACH 15 KT TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND AN INVERTED
TROUGH EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. INCREASING SWELLS WILL REQUIRE AN SCEC
HEADLINE FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH OVERNIGHT.

EAST WEST RIDGE EXTENDING EAST FROM THE CAROLINAS WILL KEEP A STEADY
ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BUT A DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW WEST OF BERMUDA WILL CINCH UP THE GRADIENT AND SEND A
TRAIN OF IMPRESSIVE SWELL FROM 5 TO 8 INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS...BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
RIP CURRENT THREAT WILL ALSO LIKELY BECOME HIGH FOR THE WEEKEND. THE
SWELL COMPONENT WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE MON- TUE...BUT MAY
REMAIN AT SCEC LEVEL...3 TO 5 FEET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OFFSHORE
WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WX...WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...RHS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  77  59  74  53 /  10  10  40  10
MCO  81  57  79  55 /  10  10  30  10
MLB  77  63  77  60 /  10  10  20  10
VRB  78  63  79  58 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...HIRSCH
LONG TERM....DECKER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
501 AM EST FRI MAR 9 2007

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
101015-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM COCOA BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM COCOA BEACH TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
501 AM EST FRI MAR 9 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
A 3 FOOT EAST SWELL WILL PRODUCE A MODERATE THREAT OF RIP
CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES TODAY. IF CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...SWIM
PARALLEL TO THE BEACH UNTIL THE CURRENT WEAKENS THEN SWIM TO
SHORE. CHECK WITH THE BEACH PATROL BEFORE ENTERING THE WATER AND
ALWAYS SWIM WITHIN SIGHT OF A LIFEGUARD.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
BOATING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT AS COMBINED SEAS
BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FEET. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
TONIGHT FOR THE AREAS NORTH OF COCOA BEACH BEYOND 20 NAUTICAL
MILES OFFSHORE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
BOATING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED. LARGE SWELLS WILL ALSO PRODUCE AN INCREASED
THREAT FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.