Red Flag Warning 1, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
425 AM CDT SUN APR 22 2007

.SHORT TERM...998 MB SFC LOW OVER SE CO AND ASSOCIATED STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LIFT NEWD INTO CNTRL AND SRN WI TNT
WITH THE CDFNT EXITING SRN WI DURING MON MORNING. MAJORITY OF
MODELS AGREE ON SYSTEM BEING DELAYED A BIT SO ONLY HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN FAR WRN CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT SLIGHTLY
INCREASED POPS MON AM. OTHERWISE SUNNY SKIES AND BREEZY SOUTH
WINDS WILL SUPPORT TEMPS NEAR 80 TODAY.

SHORTWAVE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT TRAVERSES ACROSS WI TNT BUT
DECENT 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH PWS AROUND
1.25 INCHES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY STILL WOULD SUPPORT LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS. MODELS ARE STILL DEPICTING AN INITIAL BAND OF
SHOWERS/TSTORMS ALONG LEADING EDGE OF PVA IN THE EVENING WHILE A
STRONGER AREA OF TSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE SFC
LOW AND VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND MOVE ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN WI AFTER
06Z. LACK OF CAPE...SPEED OF SYSTEM AND LATE TIMING OF LARGER
AREA OF TSTORMS WILL LIMIT RAIN TOTALS.  HEAVIEST QPF ALONG LOW
TRACK OVER WRN AND NRN CWA WITH 0.40-0.65 INCHES POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE
LIGHTER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. SVR THREAT WILL BE VERY LIMITED DUE TO
MLCAPES UNDER 500 J/KG.

.LONG TERM...
GFS AND ECMWF IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR TUE-THU...BRINGING A LARGE
UPPER LOW AND SFC LOW EWD OUT OF THE ROCKIES ON TUE...MOVING ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY ON THU. THIS SUPPORTS A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE SRN
CWA THROUGH AT LEAST WED WITH LESSER CHANCES IN THE NORTH. CLOUDS...RAIN
AND E-NELY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS COOL.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THROUGH 14Z WITH WINDS FROM 210
DEGREES BETWEEN 38 AND 42 KNOTS AROUND 1000 FEET AGL. THEN THRU
02Z MODERATE SURFACE WINDS FROM SOUTH 14-17 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 27
KNOTS. VFR CONDITIONS XPTCD THRU 02Z WITH VSBYS P6SM AND SOME SCT TO
BKN CIRRUS. AFT 02Z VSBYS P6SM WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 40 FEET.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AFTER 02Z WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS REDUCED TO LESS THAN 3 MILES IN
HEAVIER STORMS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

20/20/17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
443 AM CDT SUN APR 22 2007

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-230945-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
443 AM CDT SUN APR 22 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN WISCONSIN MAINLY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT WEST OF A LINE FROM MONTELLO TO MADISON TO MONROE.
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST FROM LATE THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING DUE TO BREEZY SOUTH WINDS...WARM
TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

LMZ643>646-665-230945-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE-
NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE TO WIND POINT-
WIND POINT TO WINTHROP HARBOR ILLINOIS-
WISCONSIN ADJACENT OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN TO MID LAKE-
443 AM CDT SUN APR 22 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

ZAJDEL
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX