Red Flag Warning 63, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
314 AM EST SAT NOV 10 2007

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE JUST NORTHWEST OF THE REGION IS KEEPING THE
LAND BREEZE GOING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS HAS
CONTINUED THE CONVERGENCE JUST OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST AS MORE NNE
FLOW IS PRESENT OVER THE GULF STREAM...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP AND DRIFT SOUTHWEST...BUT THEY HAVE ALL BEEN DISSIPATING
BEFORE REACHING THE COAST. WOULD EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE TODAY
AS CONVERGENCE DOES NOT LESSEN A GREAT DEAL...AND WITH LAND BREEZE
EXPECT MOST ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS MORNING.

THE BIG PICTURE SHOWS A REINFORCING SHORTWAVE ROTATING INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH THIS MORNING WHICH WAS INDUCING SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED
BY THE MODELS FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM
THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN FL TODAY...BUT EVEN AHEAD OF
THIS BOUNDARY A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL...ALLOWING SEA
BREEZES TO DEVELOP ALONG BOTH COASTS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL ONCE
AGAIN CLIMB TO AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.

THE COLD FRONT WASHES OUT AS IT MOVES TOWARDS SOUTH FL
TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AS 1028 MB SFC HIGH BUILDS DOWN THE EAST
COAST. THE UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS OFFSHORE AS WELL AND LEAVES BEHIND
MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE FL PENINSULA AND GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE
EARLY WEEK PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW A MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
REGIME TO DEVELOP GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO AN EASTERLY FLOW IN TIME.
THINK THAT SUNDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY OVER LAND AS PWATS ARE STILL
VERY LOW...BUT THINK A FEW SHOWERS MAY FORM OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS
DUE TO COLD ADVECTION OVER THE GULF STREAM AND ASSOCIATED
INSTABILITY. BY MONDAY PWATS INCREASE TOWARDS 1 INCH AND JUST ABOVE
ON TUESDAY...AND WITH A 15 KT OR SO NE TO E FLOW A FEW SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS JUST ABOUT ANY TIME AS
THEY ROLL ONSHORE FROM THE ATLANTIC. NOTICEABLE TEMPERATURE CHANGES
ARE IN STORE THIS PERIOD...AS THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING A
GRADUAL WARMUP IN NIGHT TIME TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION...WITH THE
WARMEST DAYTIME HIGHS ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN INTERIOR AND
WEST COAST. NIGHT TIME LOWS MAY STRUGGLE TO DROP BELOW 70 RIGHT ALONG
THE EAST COAST THIS PERIOD DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW.

BY THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PARTS OF THE WEEK...A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH
MAY TRY TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH BEING SQUASHED TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE
FL PENINSULA. THIS WILL LEAVE US IN A LIGHT FLOW REGIME WITH DAILY
SEA BREEZES AND ASSOCIATED ISOLATED CONVERGENCE SHOWERS IF THIS
PATTERN HOLDS AS INDICATED BY THE GFS...THOUGH A QUICK PEAK AT THE
00Z ECMWF SHOWS A MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH WITH A STRONG HIGH
BUILDING IN BEHIND IT...LEADING TO NE FLOW AGAIN. WILL NOT MAKE MANY
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS A RESULT OF THIS UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS S FLA. FEW SHRA MOVING S NEARING
PALM BEACH COAST BUT DISSIPATING BEFORE MOVING ONSHORE. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE IN A PERSISTENT NNW DRAINAGE WIND FLOW. A
SUBTLE SHIFT TO NNE EXPECTED AFT 18Z E COAST TERMINALS AS A WEAK SEA
BREEZE SETS UP. AT KAPF...THE LIGHT NNE DRAINAGE WIND BECOMES NNW
AFT 18Z IN A SEA BREEZE AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERAL NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE VERY LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY TO AROUND 15 KNOTS BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE. FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NE AND THEN E
WHILE RUNNING IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE ACROSS THE GULF STREAM.
SEAS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TO 5 TO 6 FEET MUCH OF THIS PERIOD
BEFORE WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY AS LIGHTER FLOW REGIME TAKES
HOLD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DIFFICULT FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN INTERIOR AGAIN TODAY.
PARTS OF GLADES, HENDRY, AND COLLIER COUNTIES SAW DEWPOINTS DROP
INTO THE 46 TO 48 RANGE YESTERDAY GIVING RHS 35 PERCENT OR LESS FOR
AN HOUR OR TWO MOST PLACES. DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING AROUND
50 MOST PARTS OF THIS AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS UPSTREAM OBS SHOW SOME DRIER AIR POISED TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION TODAY...THOUGH THE NAM DOES NOT SHOW THIS HAPPENING
UNTIL PEAK HEATING HAS PASSED. THINK THE NAM HAS THE RIGHT IDEA BUT
MAY BE A LITTLE SLOW GIVEN THE DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS ON TBWS
00Z SOUNDING LAST NIGHT...BUT EVEN STILL WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE
UPPER 70S IT WILL BE TOUGH TO MEET RFW CRITERIA FOR MORE THAN A FEW
HOURS TODAY...UNLESS DEWPOINTS CRASH LOWER THAN YESTERDAYS LEVELS.
THEREFORE AFTER COORDINATING WITH TBW...WILL NOT ISSUE AN RFW AT
THIS POINT...BUT RHS WILL LIKELY DROP TO OR JUST BELOW 35 PERCENT
FOR 2 TO 3 HOURS TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  80  59  77  66 / -  -  -  -
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  63  79  69 / -  -  -  -
MIAMI            80  63  80  66 / -  -  -  -
NAPLES           78  56  80  61 / -  -  -  -

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE: STRASSBERG
FIRE: STRASSBERG/JR
AVIATION: JR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
432 AM EST SAT NOV 10 2007

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-102145-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
431 AM EST SAT NOV 10 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.