Red Flag Warning 33, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
937 AM EDT SUN APR 1 2007

.UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED TO MORNING UPDATES. FCST WINDS
HAVE BEEN A LITTLE RELUCTANT TO RESPOND TO WEAKENING GRADIENT.
WITH THIS IN MIND, HAVE ALREADY UPDATED THE RISK OF RIPS TO HIGH
FOR ALL OF PALM BEACH COUNTY COAST. CURRENTLY, WINDS HAVE BEEN
BEGINNING TO VEER MORE TO THE SE AND THIS INDICATIVE ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY WITH CLOUD MOTION AND ALSO THIS MORNINGS 12Z MFL
SOUNDING. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A WEAKENING TREND FOR RIP CURRENTS
BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MARINE ZONES LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.
ALSO LOOKING AT THE SOUNDING STRONG CAP PERSISTS AT AROUND 6K SO
SHRA ACITIVITY SHOULD STILL BE AT A MINIMUM WITH PWAT REMAINING
BELOW .75 AND THE K INDEX IN THE NEGATIVE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 810 AM EDT SUN APR 1 2007/

UPDATE...EXPANDED THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TO INCLUDE THE
ENTIRE PALM BEACH...BROWARD...AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTY COAST. THE
JUPITER WEB CAM SHOWS WELL-FORMED RIPS THIS MORNING AND STILL A
SMALL SWELL SHOWING UP...BUT PROBABLY ONLY 1-2 FT. JUST TALKED WITH
OCEAN RESCUE AT MIAMI BEACH AND THEY HAVE RIPS OUT THERE THIS
MORNING AND HAD SEVERAL RESCUES YESTERDAY...MAINLY WITHIN A FEW
HOURS OF THE AFTERNOON LOW TIDE. HE EXPECTS ANOTHER DIFFICULT DAY
TODAY GIVEN THAT LOW TIDE IS IN THE AFTERNOON AGAIN TODAY. BASED ON
THIS INFO...WILL BE ISSUING A SPECIAL WX STMT WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS TO HIGHLIGHT THE RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG OUR ATLANTIC BEACHES.
/GREGORIA

PREV DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE CENTER CURRENTLY WEST OF BERMUDA
WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST AND WEAKENS THROUGH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST AND MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE BY MONDAY
SINCE A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BLOCK ANY MOVEMENT TOWARDS US. BUT BY
MID WEEK, THIS RIDGE MOVES SOUTH AND FLATTENS AND THEN A SHORT WAVE
STARTS TO DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO FLORIDA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MAKE ITS WAY TO THE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION LATER THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL START MOVING
MUCH SLOWER THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA THAN EARLIER EXPECT ACCORDING TO
THE LATEST GFS. THE MID LEVEL TROUGHING STARTS TO DIG IN FURTHER ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL SEND THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE
AREA EARLY SATURDAY.

POPS WILL BE ALMOST NIL UNTIL THE FRONT REACHES THE AREA THURSDAY.
HAVE NOT CHANGED THE FORECAST FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY BUT EXTENDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS COOLER
AND DRY.

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH THE EASTERLY TO EAST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
AS WELL.

MARINE...MAINLY SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH SEAS 4 FEET OR LESS. AS THE FRONT NEARS THE AREA THURSDAY,
WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AND TO THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHWEST AREAS.

FIRE WEATHER...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO THE UPPER
30 PERCENTILE RANGE THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE 20 FOOT WINDS
STAYING UNDER 15 MPH OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST AREAS.
SOUTHEASTERLIES SHOULD HELP BRING MOISTURE IN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THERE MAY BE LOW HUMIDITY CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT WEEKEND WHEN THE
FRONT PUSHES WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

LONG TERM...30/KOB
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...57/DG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
754 AM EDT SUN APR 1 2007

FLZ063-066>075-020000-
GLADES-HENDRY-PALM BEACH WESTERN-PALM BEACH EASTERN-
WESTERN COLLIER-EASTERN COLLIER-WESTERN BROWARD-
BROWARD METROPOLITAN-WESTERN DADE-DADE METROPOLITAN-
MAINLAND MONROE-
754 AM EDT SUN APR 1 2007

...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY TODAY AT THE BEACHES OF
PALM BEACH, BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES DUE TO A STEADY
ONSHORE WIND OF AROUND 15 MPH. SOME OF THE RIP CURRENTS WILL BE
STRONG. THUS, SWIMMING IS NOT ADVISED. THIS IS A DANGEROUS
SITUATION. RIP CURRENTS ARE THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED KILLER
IN FLORIDA. STAY SAFE BY STAYING OUT OF THE WATER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE MONDAY AND OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. SO ALTHOUGH RIP CURRENTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK, THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS WIDESPREAD AND STRONG AS THEY ARE THIS WEEKEND. SWIMMERS
SHOULD CONSULT LIFEGUARDS BEFORE ENTERING THE WATER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

GREGORIA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
947 AM EDT SUN APR 01 2007

FLZ068-072-074-012200-
PALM BEACH EASTERN FL-BROWARD METROPOLITAN FL-DADE METROPOLITAN FL-
947 AM EDT SUN APR 01 2007

...ANOTHER DAY OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC
BEACHES...

OCEAN RESCUE REPORTED RIP CURRENTS OCCURRING AT MIAMI BEACH THIS
MORNING. WEB CAMS AT JUPITER INLET IN PALM BEACH COUNTY SHOW WELL
DEVELOPED RIP CURRENTS OCCURRING THERE. THUS...RIP CURRENTS ARE
AFFECTING THE PALM BEACH...BROWARD...AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTY BEACHES
AT THIS TIME.

SUSTAINED EAST WINDS OF AROUND 15 MPH COMBINED WITH A LOW TIDE
BETWEEN 2 AND 3 PM WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE RIP CURRENTS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...STRONG RIP CURRENTS
ARE LIKELY. OCEAN RESCUE REPORTED SEVERAL RESCUES YESTERDAY. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...SWIMMING IS
NOT ADVISED TODAY. THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION. RIP CURRENTS ARE
THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED KILLER IN FLORIDA. STAY SAFE BY
STAYING OUT OF THE WATER.

A RIP CURRENT IS A 10 TO 30 YARD WIDE CHANNEL OF WATER THAT CAN PULL
EVEN A STRONG SWIMMER FROM NEAR OR INSIDE THE SAND BAR INTO DEEPER
WATER. RIP CURRENTS ARE THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED KILLER IN
FLORIDA. STAY SAFE BY STAYING OUT OF THE WATER.

IF CAUGHT IN THE SEAWARD PULL OF A RIP CURRENT DO NOT ATTEMPT TO
MOVE DIRECTLY TOWARD SHORE. INSTEAD, MOVE SIDEWAYS ACROSS THE RIP
CURRENT UNTIL THE PULL EASES. AN ALTERNATE METHOD OF ESCAPE IS TO
LET THE RIP CURRENT PULL YOU SEAWARD 50 TO 100 YARDS WHERE THE FORCE
WEAKENS THEN SWIM TOWARD THE BEACH AT AN ANGLE AWAY FROM THE CURRENT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION VISIT THE MIAMI NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

GREGORIA