Red Flag Warning 29, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
250 PM EDT MON MAR 26 2007

.DISCUSSION...
AT THE SURFACE...AN EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WHILE A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO
SIT IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.  OVERALL...THIS WILL
RESULT IN TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR THE FORECAST AREA...WITH GENERALLY
DRY WEATHER AND VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN DAILY TEMPERATURES.  SHORT
TERM GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO UPPER RIDGE FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AS AN
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER TEXAS WEAKENS AND SPREADS EASTWARD ACROSS
THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS. THIS WILL OCCUR
SIMULTANEOUSLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A VERY WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
FROM THE NORTHEAST...AND SHOULD RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY GREATER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY RISE ONCE AGAIN IN THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AS ANOTHER POWERFUL UPPER LOW
MIGRATES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND EMERGES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THUS...EXPECT SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...
WITH MOST OF THE AREA...ASIDE FROM THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COASTAL
REGION...REMAINING DRY. AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH CUTOFF UPPER
LOWS...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS/ECMWF EXHIBITS
CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE CENTRAL PLAINS UPPER
SYSTEM WILL EJECT EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN BY SUNDAY...AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS
VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS COMBINATION WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH A BRIEF CEILING AT
AROUND 2800 FEET MAY OCCUR THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN EASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD AND BE A LITTLE BREEZY DURING THE
DAY MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL MAINTAIN AN SCEC STATEMENT FOR THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...AS SEAS ARE STILL RUNNING AROUND 6 FEET
AND EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE 15-20 KNOT
RANGE. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. GULF STREAM SEAS MAY APPROACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA ONCE AGAIN BY SATURDAY...AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL CONTINUE FALLING INTO THE 35-40
PERCENT RANGE ACROSS INTERIOR LOCATIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER...DURATION APPEARS TO BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN...WITH
NO HEADLINES OR FIRE WEATHER WATCH ISSUED AT THIS TIME. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND...AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  70  80  69  80 / -  10 10 -
FORT LAUDERDALE  71  81  71  82 / -  10 10 -
MIAMI            70  80  70  82 / -  10 10 -
NAPLES           64  85  66  86 / -  -  -  -

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

LONG TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...18/GR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
406 AM EDT MON MAR 26 2007

FLZ063-066>075-262350-
GLADES-HENDRY-PALM BEACH WESTERN-PALM BEACH EASTERN-
WESTERN COLLIER-EASTERN COLLIER-WESTERN BROWARD-
BROWARD METROPOLITAN-WESTERN DADE-DADE METROPOLITAN-
MAINLAND MONROE-
406 AM EDT MON MAR 26 2007

...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AGAIN TODAY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST...
...A RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED INTO THIS WEEKEND...
...SEAS OF 7 FEET POSSIBLE IN THE GULF STREAM THIS MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: THE EASTERLY FLOW THAT HAS CREATED THE HIGH RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. THIS FLOW WILL BEGIN TO SLIGHTLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT,
BUT A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL STILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH TONIGHT. RIP CURRENTS ARE
ESPECIALLY STRONG AND NUMEROUS AT TIMES OF LOW TIDE WHICH ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN 8 AND 9 AM AND BETWEEN 9 AND 10 PM ALONG
THE EAST COAST. THIS IS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION FOR
SWIMMERS. PEOPLE ARE NOT ADVISED TO INTER THE WATER, DUE TO THE
DANGER POSED BY RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE EAST COAST.

WAVES: WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY AND SLIGHTLY DECREASE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW WAVE
HEIGHTS TO DECREASE TO BELOW 7 FEET THIS MORNING IN THE GULF STREAM, BUT
WAVES OF 5 TO 6 FEET WILL STILL BE FOUND IN THE GULF STREAM WATERS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND
ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE. THIS WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE
FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEK AND
POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.