Flash Flood Warning 99, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
356 AM CDT TUE MAY 8 2007

.SHORT TERM...
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THIS
FORECAST. THE SLOW-MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN SONORA
MEXICO/SOUTHERN AZ BORDER WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST TODAY. IN
ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM... A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN INTACT AS SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER
60S CONTRIBUTE TO PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SOME 150-200% OF NORMAL.
GIVEN THE ABNORMALLY HIGH AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST
TEXAS TODAY. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH
TONIGHT. SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON APPEARS BEST ALONG AND
SOUTH OF ROUGHLY A GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS TO GARDEN CITY LINE.
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED LINE WILL BE SOUTH OF A
STATIONARY FRONT AND WILL LIKELY HAVE THE BEST INSTABILITY ALONG
WITH ADEQUATE SHEAR TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ANY STORM THAT
DEVELOPS AND PROPAGATES ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED FOR POTENTIAL TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH PROBABILITES
FOR THIS WILL LIKELY REMAIN LOW. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGH
THROUGH TONIGHT AND WE HAVE GENERALLY GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE VALUES.

.LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD
THE CWA WEDNESDAY.  THE SYSTEM WILL EJECT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING.  THE PRIMARY LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY 06Z
THURSDAY.  WINDS ALOFT WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW.

THE UPPER LOW WILL INTERACT WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY.  SOME OF THE STORMS MAY
APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH DEEP SHEAR VECTORS IN THE 40 TO 50 KT
RANGE AND 700 TO 500 LAPSE RATES IN THE 6 TO 7 DEG C/KM RANGE.  THE
MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WITH PWATS OF 1
TO 1.5 INCHES OVER MOST OF THE AREA...HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS.  WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE CWA THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF THE REGION...RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN
TO DECREASE.  GRADUALLY DECREASED POPS OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY WITH THE PRECIPITATION ENDING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS DRYER AIR INTO THE
AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL WEDNESDAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER...RAINFALL
AND A COOL AIRMASS OVER THE CWA.  A WARMING WILL BEGIN THURSDAY AS
THE COOL AIRMASS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND A THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE REGION.  AFTER HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S
WEDNESDAY...THE HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 80S AND 90S THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              68  56  69  55  /  80  70  70  30
CARLSBAD NM                67  54  75  55  /  80  50  40  10
DRYDEN TX                  80  62  75  59  /  70  60  40  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           73  58  73  59  /  80  70  50  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          63  47  70  54  /  70  50  30  10
HOBBS NM                   66  53  73  55  /  90  60  50  10
MARFA TX                   72  50  70  46  /  70  60  40  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    70  55  70  56  /  80  70  60  20
ODESSA TX                  70  55  71  56  /  80  70  60  20
WINK TX                    73  56  76  56  /  80  70  50  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...CENTRAL LEA COUNTY...
     EDDY COUNTY PLAINS...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY...
     NORTHERN LEA COUNTY...SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 3 AM CDT /2 AM MDT/ EARLY THIS MORNING TO
     7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     ANDREWS...BIG BEND AREA...BORDEN...CRANE...DAVIS/APACHE
     MOUNTAINS AREA...DAWSON...ECTOR...GAINES...GLASSCOCK...
     GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...HOWARD...LOVING...MARFA PLATEAU...
     MARTIN...MIDLAND...MITCHELL...PECOS...PRESIDIO VALLEY...
     REAGAN...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...SCURRY...
     TERRELL...UPTON...VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR...WARD...
     WINKLER.

&&

06/54

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
408 AM CDT TUE MAY 8 2007

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-090915-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-
GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-
PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
408 AM CDT TUE MAY 8 2007 /308 AM MDT TUE MAY 8 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM REMAINS WEST OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO. THIS LOW WILL INTERACT WITH RICH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA. THE MAIN THREATS
WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...HOWEVER ISOLATED TORNADOES
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE AREA. THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

AS THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN WEDNESDAY. THESE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING ESPECIALLY OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN AND THE WESTERN LOW
ROLLING PLAINS. SEVERE WEATHER WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN WEDNESDAY
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY END WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TODAY. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO BE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING.
SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY OFFICIALS SHOULD MAKE PREPARATIONS
FOR A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENT.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
752 AM CDT TUE MAY 8 2007

NMZ028-081345-
EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
652 AM MDT TUE MAY 8 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR NORTHEASTERN EDDY COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF LOCO HILLS AT
652 AM MDT...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

GUSTY WINDS... SMALL HAIL... HEAVY RAIN... AND DEADLY LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
843 AM CDT TUE MAY 8 2007

NMZ029-033-081445-
CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-
743 AM MDT TUE MAY 8 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR NORTHERN LEA COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 26 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TATUM AT 743
AM MDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

GUSTY WINDS TO 55 MPH... SMALL HAIL... HEAVY RAIN... AND DEADLY
LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
917 AM CDT TUE MAY 8 2007

TXZ074-080-081515-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-MARFA PLATEAU-
917 AM CDT TUE MAY 8 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR NORTHWESTERN PRESIDIO AND
WESTERN JEFF DAVIS COUNTIES.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES WEST OF VALENTINE AT 917 AM
CDT...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

SMALL HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

SEEK SHELTER IF THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH YOUR LOCATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
959 AM CDT TUE MAY 8 2007

TXZ059-081600-
LOVING-
959 AM CDT TUE MAY 8 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR LOVING COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES WEST OF SLASH RANCH AT 959
AM CDT...MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH.

GUSTY WINDS... SMALL HAIL... HEAVY RAIN... AND DEADLY LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1121 AM CDT TUE MAY 8 2007

TXZ058-081715-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
1121 AM CDT TUE MAY 8 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR CENTRAL REEVES COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTH OF TOYAH AT 1121 AM
CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

GUSTY WINDS... SMALL HAIL... HEAVY RAIN... AND DEADLY LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1230 PM CDT TUE MAY 8 2007

TXZ061-062-081830-
ECTOR-MIDLAND-
1230 PM CDT TUE MAY 8 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR ECTOR AND MIDLAND COUNTIES.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED FROM 7 MILES NORTH OF GOLDSMITH TO
16 MILES WEST OF PENWELL AT 1230 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...HAIL TO THE SIZE OF MARBLES...AND VERY HEAVY
RAIN ARE LIKELY.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT TUESDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS.

SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AND NO WARNINGS ARE ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.

GUSTY WINDS... SMALL HAIL... HEAVY RAIN... AND DEADLY LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE.