Severe Thunderstorm Warning 178, NWS St. Louis, MO

000 
WWUS53 KLSX 130318
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1017 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2007

MOC205-130400-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0178.000000T0000Z-070813T0400Z/
SHELBY MO-
1017 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
FOR SHELBY COUNTY...

AT 1015 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM MAUD TO BETHEL...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11
MILES WEST OF SHELBINA TO 17 MILES NORTH OF SHELBINA...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDE...SHELBINA 
...HUNNEWELL...AND EMDEN.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR
PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME
OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO
AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

LAT...LON 3997 9211 3994 9231 3977 9230 3962 9228
      3962 9221 3966 9215 3968 9185 3993 9185

$$

GKS

000 
WWUS53 KLSX 130356
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1055 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2007

MOC205-130405-
/O.EXP.KLSX.SV.W.0178.000000T0000Z-070813T0400Z/
SHELBY MO-
1055 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SHELBY COUNTY EXPIRES AT 1100
PM CDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED SOUTHEAST OF THE 
COUNTY.

ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...AND A SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM.

LAT...LON 3997 9211 3994 9231 3977 9230 3962 9228
      3962 9221 3966 9215 3968 9185 3993 9185

$$

GKS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
848 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2007

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS AND RELATED PRODUCTS AS WELL AS THE HWO TO
REFLECT SEVERE MCS CURRENTLY MOVING ESEWD ACROSS S CNTRL IA/NWRN
MO. PROPAGATION VECTORS...850 THETA-E LINES AND AXIS OF HIGHEST
INSTABILITY FROM THE LATEST RUC RUN IS THAT THE MCS WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SEWD INTO AREAS NORTH OF I-70 BETWEEN 0230-07Z. WHILE THE
MCS WILL BE ENCOUNTERING SLIGHTLY LESS INSTABILITY AND SHEAR AS IT
MOVES INTO THE CWA...PARAMETERS WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR IT TO
PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND MAYBE SOME HAIL...ESPECIALLY W OF THE
MS RIVER LATE THIS EVENING. CLOUD DEBRIS WILL ALSO LIMIT VIEWING
OF THE METEOR SHOWER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES AS THE
HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

BRITT

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER HOT DAY. HEAT INDICES HAVE REACHED 105-110 IN MANY AREAS.
THEY WOULD BE HIGHER, BUT DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 50S
SOUTH OF ST. LOUIS. OF INTEREST FOR TONIGHT IS A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX WHICH HAS MOVED INTO FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON.
CAPES ARE NOW OVER 7000 OVER THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF IOWA AND MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE PRETTY HIGH OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI. IT LOOKS
LIKE THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD TOGETHER TIL 10PM TO MIDNIGHT. SPC
HAS EXTENDED THE SLIGHT RISK AREA INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND
THEIR THINKING IS THAT THIS WILL HOLD TOGETHER FOR AWHILE. I HAVE
INCREASED THE CHANCES TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT THIS EVENING WITH A LOW
CHANCE OVERNIGHT.

OUR HEAT HIGHLIGHTS REMAIN THE SAME...KEEPING THE EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE WARMEST DAY
SHOULD BE TUESDAY. UNSURE WHAT WILL HAPPEN THIS WEEKEND. EARLIER
MODELS POINTED TO MORE CLOUDINESS AND LESS HEAT AS NORTHWEST FLOW
PRESSES FURTHER SOUTH TO OUR EAST...BUT MODELS STILL DIVERGE SO I
HAVE GONE WITH SOMEWHAT LOWER TEMPERATURES BUT WENT ABOVE
GUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY ON THURSDAY. WITH A SECOND COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH TOWARD OUR AREA LATE THIS WEEK WE SHOULD SEE A 30 TO
35 KNOT WESTERLY FLOW AT 850MB I LOOK FOR COMPRESSION AND MORE
HEATING THAN THE MODELS SUGGEST. DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHER
PREFRONTAL AS WELL AND THIS SHOULD HELP HEAT INDICES TO BE QUITE
HIGH.

PEDIGO

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...WK CDFNT OR AT LEAST PREFRONTAL TROF EXTDS FM
NWRN MO SE THRU E CNTRL MO ATTM. SFC WNDS HAVE BCM MAINLY NLY AT
THE TAF SITES. SFC WNDS WL BCM LGT THIS EVNG...THEN VEER ARND TO A
E-NELY DIRECTION ON MON AS THE SFC HI CURRENTLY CNTRD OVR MN MOVES
E-SEWD THRU WI AND INTO WRN MI. FEW-SCT HI BASED CUMULUS CLOUDS OVR
MUCH OF THE CWA WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVNG WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HTG. HI LVL CLOUDINESS WILL SPREAD E-SEWD INTO UIN AND COU
LTR THIS EVNG FM MCS OVR ERN NEBRASKA AND WRN IA. WILL KEEP TAFS
DRY FOR NOW...BUT IF MCS HOLDS TOGETHER LTR THIS EVNG AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HRS AND IT BGNS TO MOVE MORE SEWD MAY NEED TO
INCLUDE TSRA IN THE UIN TAF AND EVEN POSSIBLY THE COU TAF FOR LT TGT.
SHOULD BE FEW-SCT DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS LT MON MRNG AND AFTN AT
THE TAF FCST PTS.

GKS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY FROM COMBO OF LOW
10HR FUEL MOISTURE IN THE 5-6PCT RANGE...TEMPS OVER 100F MOST
LOCATIONS...AND MIN RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 25PCT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

            ST LOUIS (KSTL)   COLUMBIA (KCOU)   QUINCY (KUIN)
TODAY           106/1881         105/1999         105/1036
MONDAY          103/1936         104/1936         105/1936
TUESDAY         102/1936         105/1936         104/1936
WEDNESDAY       104/1936         108/1936         102/1936

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR AUDRAIN-
     BOONE-CALLAWAY-COLE-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-GASCONADE-IRON-
     JEFFERSON-KNOX-LEWIS-LINCOLN-MADISON-MARION-MONITEAU-MONROE-
     MONTGOMERY-OSAGE-PIKE-RALLS-REYNOLDS-SHELBY-ST. CHARLES-ST.
     FRANCOIS-ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-STE. GENEVIEVE-WARREN-
     WASHINGTON.

IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ADAMS IL-
     BOND IL-BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-
     JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-
     MONTGOMERY IL-PIKE IL-RANDOLPH IL-ST. CLAIR IL-WASHINGTON
     IL.

&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
838 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2007

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-131200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX-LEWIS-
SHELBY-MARION-MONROE-RALLS-PIKE-BOONE-AUDRAIN-MONITEAU-COLE-OSAGE-
CALLAWAY-MONTGOMERY-LINCOLN-GASCONADE-WARREN-ST. CHARLES-FRANKLIN-
ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-JEFFERSON-CRAWFORD-WASHINGTON-
ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-
838 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2007

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AREAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 TONIGHT. A STRONG COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THESE AREAS DURING THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING
THUNDERSTORMS WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. IN ADDITION...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SOME HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE DANGEROUSLY HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...RESULTING IN HEAT INDEX LEVELS
PEAKING BETWEEN 105 AND 110 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON. LITTLE RELIEF
FROM THE HEAT IS EXPECTED AT NIGHT. AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IS
IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE WARNING PRODUCT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF INTERSTATE
70 MONDAY NIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1

BRITT