Severe Thunderstorm Warning 147, NWS St. Louis, MO

000 
WWUS53 KLSX 182243
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
543 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2007

MOC183-219-182253-
/O.EXP.KLSX.SV.W.0147.000000T0000Z-070618T2245Z/
ST. CHARLES MO-WARREN MO-
543 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN WARREN AND
WESTERN ST. CHARLES COUNTIES EXPIRES AT 545 PM CDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND NO LONGER 
APPEARED TO BE SEVERE. 

LAT...LON 3872 9126 3855 9120 3860 9078 3888 9088

$$

TILLY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
258 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2007

.DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SASKATCHEWAN THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE LOW ACROSS EASTERN MN AND SOUTHEASTERN NEB INTO
THE TX PANHANDLE. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON
TUESDAY WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR.

UPPER SHORT WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO NORTHEAST TX THIS
MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN MO BY THIS EVENING. THE GFS,
UKMET AND NAM HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT PAST SEVERAL RUNS WITH THIS
FEATURE. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH KS FORECAST IN
THE MIDDLE 30S. POPS WILL BE CATEGORICAL ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN FORECASTING DRIER AIR
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. EARLY IN THE WEEK. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS
SYSTEM WILL COVER THE AREA OF THE COUNTRY FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE GFS, UKMET AND NAM ARE INDICATING A SHORT
WAVE WILL ROLL OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY AND INITIATE A MCS. THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS FORECAST A
MORE POTENT SHORT WAVE WILL ROLL DOWN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. ITS A LONG WAY DOWN THE ROAD BUT WILL
INCLUDE LOW POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.
THE GFS FORECASTS A MCS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THURSDAY EVENING AND THEN ROLL SOUTHEASTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE GFS AND EUROPEAN ARE VERY SIMILAR FOR THE WEEKEND IN EXPANDING A
MONSTER HIGH IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE. BY SUNDAY MORNING, BOTH MODELS
FORECAST A 592-594 GPM HIGH AT 500 MBS CENTERED OVER THE 4 CORNERS.
SYSTEM WILL COVER ABOUT HALF THE COUNTRY. BY MONDAY MORNING, BOTH
MODLES FORECAST A 594-596 GPM H5 HIGH CENTERED OVER KANSAS CITY.
850 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE 20-22C ACROSS THE AREA BY MONDAY.
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A HOT TIME IN THE OLD TOWN AT NIGHT.

TPS
&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS PCPN TIMING AND
CHANCES. APPEARS THERE WILL BE THREE MAIN CHANCES AFFECTING THE
AREA THRU THE VALID TAF PERIOD. FIRST IS OCCURRING OVER THE AREA
NOW...WITH A BAND OF SHRA FROM KIRK-KSTL-KMDH. THIS IS EXPECTED BY
THE MODELS TO WEAKEN OVER TIME AS IT PUSHES NEWD. THE NEXT AREA OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITH VORT MAX...WHICH USED TO BE THE OLD
CUTOFF OVER THE SRN PLAINS...AS IT MOVES NEWD INTO THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. SHOULD SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDER WITH THIS FEATURE. THE FINAL AREA OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH
THE CDFNT ITSELF AS IT PUSHES THRU THE FA LATE THIS EVENING AND
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MOSTLY SHRA EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE WITH
A SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDER. SOME LO CLOUDS...WHERE THE MAIN AREA
IS LOCATED OVER WRN MO AND ERN KS AND ERN OK...EXPECTED TO ADVECT
INTO THE KUIN/KCOU AREAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY
INTO THE KSTL/KSUS AREA LATER TONIGHT. WITH A RATHER SHARPLY
DEFINED CDFNT THOUGH...CLOUDS EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT WITH FROPA OR
SHORTLY AFTER...AROUND 07Z AT KUIN...10Z AT KCOU...12Z AT
KSTL/KSUS. AFTER THIS...LOOK FOR FEW IF ANY CLOUDS ON TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE...SOME GUSTINESS TO THE WINDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AS OCNL HOLES IN THE CLOUDS ALLOW ABILITY TO TAP 20-25KT 500M AGL
WINDS.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
328 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2007

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-191200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX-LEWIS-
SHELBY-MARION-MONROE-RALLS-PIKE-BOONE-AUDRAIN-MONITEAU-COLE-OSAGE-
CALLAWAY-MONTGOMERY-LINCOLN-GASCONADE-WARREN-ST. CHARLES-FRANKLIN-
ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-JEFFERSON-CRAWFORD-WASHINGTON-
ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-
328 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER
A SMALL PORTION OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY
THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
414 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MANCHESTER              38.59N 90.51W
06/18/2007                   ST. LOUIS          MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            THREE LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF
            CLAYTON AND KIRKSVILLE ROAD.

&&

RPRZYBYLINSKI