Flash Flood Warning 2, NWS Elko, NV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
207 PM PDT WED JUL 25 2007

.SYNOPSIS...ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL COMBINE TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME DRIER AIR MOVING
INTO WESTERN NEVADA BY FRIDAY WILL LIMIT THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO EASTERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS CWA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE
INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH AS SHORTWAVE STARTS TO
MOVE THROUGH. PWS OVER 1 INCH AND STORM MOVEMENT LESS THAN 10KTS
WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WITH FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. SHOULD
SEE SOME CLEARING AGAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH NORTHERN ZONES LIKELY
REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE NIGHT EXCEPT WESTERN HUMBOLDT
COUNTY WHERE SOME DRIER AIR WILL BE ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST.

DO NOT EXPECT AS ACTIVE OF A DAY TOMORROW WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO
THE NORTH AND NOT MUCH OF A SHORTWAVE TO AID IN CONVECTION MOVING
THROUGH.  WILL STILL HAVE PWS AROUND AN INCH EASTERN HALF OF CWA
AND SHOULD SEE MORE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AT LEAST EAST OF A KEKO-
KTPH LINE.  HIGHS WILL BE WARMER TOMORROW THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS WITH THE WARMEST LOCATIONS BEING IN HUMBOLDT COUNTY WHERE MID
TO UPPER 90S ARE LIKELY WHILE EASTERN ZONES WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
THE 80S WITH MORE CLOUDS AND DEEPER MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE. DRIER
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN ACROSS MUCH OF CWA THU NIGHT AND FRI
WHICH WILL DECREASE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EVEN MORE.  ONLY KEPT
TOOK OUT MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER HUMBOLDT AND AREAS MAINLY
NORTH OF I-80 IN ELKO COUNTY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW MORE
DEGREES FRIDAY WITH SOME AREAS IN THE WEST GETTING BACK TO 100+
DEGREES WHILE EASTERN ZONES SHOULD GET UP NEAR 90. JMG
&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO REMAINING OVER THE EASTERN 1/2 TO 2/3 OF
THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING WITH IT
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE CONTINUED THREAT OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3S OF THE CWA AFTERNOON
PWS THROUGH THE LONG TERM ARE EXPECTED TO BE FLUCTUATE BETWEEN 0.50
AND 0.85. THESE VALUES SUGGEST THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRANSITION
BACK TO DRY FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...WITH ASSOCIATED QPF AMOUNTS
LOWERING BELOW A TENTH OF AN INCH. KEPT THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF
HUMBOLDT COUNTY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS MID-LEVELS ARE DRIER
DUE TO THE MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW. AFTERNOON HIGHS AND
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR NORMAL TO
ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ROOD
&&

.AVIATION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. SOME STORMS MAY
BECOME STRONG WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO
BELOW ONE MILE...SMALL HAIL...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY
HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING QUITE AS MUCH ACTIVITY AS TODAY. ROOD
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE IS NOW IN PLACE ACROSS NRN AND
CNTRL NV SO EXPECTING STORMS TO BE WET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH SLOW STORM MOVEMENTS AND HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
WITH THE MANY RECENT BURN AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL KEEP THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS AFTN AND EVENING ACROSS NRN NEVADA. DRIER AIR
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO ZONES 451 ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL LIMIT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO ISOLATED. HOWEVER ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. LESS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY
WITH DRIER AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION.  THE BEST CHANCE GOING
INTO THE EXTENDED FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. JMG
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR
NORTHERN NEVADA FROM 12 PM PDT TO 8 PM PDT TODAY.