Wind Advisory 15, NWS North Platte, NE

000 
WWUS73 KLBF 032038
NPWLBF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
338 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2007

NEZ004-022-032145-
/O.CAN.KLBF.WI.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-070504T0000Z/
SHERIDAN-GARDEN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GORDON...RUSHVILLE...OSHKOSH
238 PM MDT THU MAY 3 2007

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTH PLATTE HAS CANCELLED THE
WIND ADVISORY. 

SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW THE ADVISORY LEVEL. 


$$
CDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
256 AM CDT THU MAY 3 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
11-3.9 SATELITE INDICATE MOISTURE IS WORKING NORTH FROM KS. OBS
INDICATE THAT THE LOW STUFF IS UP TO KHYS. ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN ONTARIO IS BUILDING SOUTH...PRESSURE IS FALLING
ACROSS THE CWA AS THE UPPER TROUGH GETS CLOSER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE PATTERN TO BEGIN TO UNFOLD TODAY AND LAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO
THE WESTERN CONUS RESULTING IN SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT. MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE CWA FROM BOTH THE GULF AND
FROM THE PACIFIC. FOR TODAY...STRATUS ADVECTING NORTH FROM KS IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE EAST.
TIME HEIGHTS SHOW THIS MOISTURE BECOMES FAIRLY DEEP...UP TO AROUND
H6...BY 18Z. WEAK DPVA AND INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW
SHRA. THIS ACTIVITY IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MERGING UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES OVER TX. ACROSS THE WEST...WARMER TEMPS AND WINDY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE ZONES WITH NO STRATUS AND A
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. WILL BE ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY
FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF 26KT THIS AFTERNOON. WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND THE WARMER TEMPS...SB
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE. WITH INITIATION OF CELLS WEST
OF THE CWA EXPECTED...SOME STORMS MAY MAKE IT INTO THE WEST BEFORE
00Z. IF CELLS ARE SEVERE WEST OF THE CWA...THEY SHOULD BE ABLE TO
MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY WITH STRONG ADVECTIONS TAKING PLACE.
OVERNIGHT...THE LLJET IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE CHANCES
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. H85 WINDS OF 30-35KT HOWEVER IS
NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE SO THINK THAT THE INTENSITY OF THE STORMS
WILL BE LIMITED. PROBLEM WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS
THAT TSRA CHANCES WILL BE HIGH...BUT THE LOCATION OF THE SEVERE
STORMS AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL DEPEND ON THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
THAT WILL SLOWLY TRACK FROM WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
ALSO HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON TEMPS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE MESOSCALE
FEATURES PRODUCED IN THE MODELS DUE TO ALL OF THE EXPECTED
CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...H3 JET STRUCTUCE IS VERY DIFFERENT
BETWEEN THE NAM AND THE GFS BY FRI NIGHT..WITH MORE OF A N-S
ORIENTATION IN THE GFS WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A MORE WESTERLY
POSITION OF THE SURFACE FRONT. FOR NOW...AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF
HWY 83 ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE THE HIGHEST RISK OF SEVERE STORMS AND
SOME FLOODING RAINS. ECMWF AND GFS LINGER THE SOUTHWEST H5 LOW
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. IN FACT...THE ECMWF BRINGS THE
REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW THROUGH WED EVENING. HAVE GONE WITH HIGH
POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MAINTAINED CHANCES THROUGH MON. AREA
IS OUTLOOKED THROUGH SATURDAY AND SEVERE HAS BEEN INCORPORATED
INTO THE GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SRLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME
SCATERED TO BROKEN MVFR CEILINGS TO ENTER SOUTHERN...FOLLOWED BY
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH
ALONG PORTIONS OF TWEB ROUTE 098 FROM KVTN-KCDR. ADDITIONAL STRONG
WINDS WILL OCCUR ALONG TWEB ROUTE 264 FROM KOGA-KBFF.

FOR TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF TWEB
ROUTES 098...264 AND 274. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AS A FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTS ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR NEZ004-022.

&&

JMC/CLB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
319 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2007

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-031200-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
319 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2007 /219 PM MDT WED MAY 2 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A SURFACE FRONT AND DRY LINE WILL SET UP ON THE HIGH PLAINS
THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND A FEW ISOLATED STORMS MAY BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGER HAIL AND WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 60 MPH.
AGAIN BY LATE FRIDAY...INSTABILITY AND THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILES
ACROSS THE BOUNDARY WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. ALSO...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN MAKE ITS WAY EAST...REDUCING THE
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/LBF(ALL LOWERCASE)

SPRINGER/13