Flash Flood Warning 42, NWS North Platte, NE

000 
WGUS73 KLBF 131730
FFSLBF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1225 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2007

NEC029-101-111-135-132045-
LINCOLN NE-PERKINS NE-CHASE NE-KEITH NE-
1125 AM MDT WED JUN 13 2007

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM MDT(345 PM
CDT) FOR KEITH...CHASE...PERKINS AND WESTERN LINCOLN COUNTIES...

AT 1121 AM MDT...NORTH PLATTE DOPPLER RADAR AND LOCAL LAW 
ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING FLASH 
FLOODING OVER PERKINS...CHASE AND WESTERN LINCON COUNTY. MOVEMENT OF 
THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN VERY LITTLE OVER THE PAST HOURT. 
HIGHWAY 23 HAS BEEN REPORTED CLOSED FROM GRANT NEBRASKA TO HOLYOKE 
COLORADO. AS MUCH AS 8 FEET OF WATER HAS BEEN REPORTED OVER HIGHWAY 
23 BETWEEN THOSE LOCATIONS.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO ENDERS
RESERVOIR STATE RECREATION AREA...WAUNETA...LAMAR...IMPERIAL...ENDERS
AND CHAMPION

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE 
WARNED AREA.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE THE POWER OF FLOOD WATERS. ONLY A FEW INCHES OF
RAPIDLY FLOWING WATER CAN QUICKLY CARRY AWAY YOUR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 4035 10202 4035 10135 4072 10133 4070 10079
      4139 10066 4137 10203

$$

JWS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
311 AM CDT WED JUN 13 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
SEMI STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO. EXTENSIVE SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITH ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO KEEP INHERIT FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL TODAY AS SATURATED GROUNDS TO
GET MORE RAINFALL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE CONUS TO LINGER
IN THE NEAR TERM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AT THIS TIME SHOWS UPPER LOW
OVER NRN NM DRIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST AS POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. TODAY THE H5 LOW IS FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF WHILE
LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN WILL KEEP PRIMARY UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
THURSDAY BEFORE IT DRIFTS SOUTH BEYOND. THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
FEEDING INTO THE PLAINS WILL KEEP EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS IN THE
PICTURE AS RFC 3HR FFG THROUGH EVENING INDICATES AROUND A HALF
INCH OF RAIN REQUIRED FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA ESPECIALLY IN CHASE...HAYES...PERKINS...KEITH
AND LINCOLN COUNTIES. RAINFALL REPORTS FROM CHASE COUNTY INDICATE
OVER 11 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE CHAMPION AREA.

THIS MORNING FLOODING CONCERNS LINGER WITH DRIER AIR POSSIBLY
WORKING INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST THAT WOULD CUT DOWN ON RAINFALL
POTENTIAL. FURTHER NORTHEAST INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL POTENTIAL TODAY. MODELS ARE
GENERATING MORE THAN ENOUGH RAIN WITH THE SLOW BREAKDOWN IN THE
BLOCKING PATTERN FOR AREAS EAST OF 83 TO GET RAIN THURSDAY AS THE
DEFORMATION ZONE SHIFTS EASTWARD SLOWLY. THURSDAY THE SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED WITH THE UPPER CLOSED LOW TO
DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS OKLAHOMA. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL THEN BECOME
LESS DEFINE AND WASHOUT AS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WANS
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTHWEST.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST
WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE 90S FOR THE START OF THE
WEEKEND. GUIDANCE NUMBERS MAY BE TOO WARM FRIDAY GIVEN THE MASS OF
WATER WOES EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST INTO THE PANHANDLE.

FOR THE LONG TERM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY FEW CHANGES MADE A RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN AND UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WEST THAT WILL
LEAD TO TIMING ISSUES WITH WAVES LIFTING OUT TO ENHANCE LIFT FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE START OF THE NEW WORKWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY ALONG THE ERN PTNS OF TWB ROUTES 098...274 AND 264. VFR AND
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE WRN PTNS OF THOSE ROUTES. FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY IMPROVE WEST TO EAST TODAY BUT THE DRIER
AIR AND IMPROVED FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ONLY VERY
SLOWLY EAST.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NEZ005>010-025>029-
036>038-056>059-069>071-094.

&&

19/CLB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
518 AM CDT WED JUN 13 2007

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-141030-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
518 AM CDT WED JUN 13 2007 /418 AM MDT WED JUN 13 2007/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING AND THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY EVENING TODAY ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM PRODUCING THE HEAVY RAINFALL IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY EAST AND
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION WITH RAIN...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

AS LITTLE AS A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IN LESS THAN AN HOUR WILL
PRODUCE FLOODING ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THUS IF THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP...CONGREGATE AND BECOME NUMEROUS...SERIOUS FLOODING WILL
DEVELOP. RESIDENTS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA SHOULD REMAIN AT A HIGH
STATE OF READINESS AS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IS HIGH TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE

CDC