Flash Flood Warning 85, NWS Wichita, KS

000 
WGUS73 KICT 020156
FFSICT

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
852 PM CDT WED AUG 1 2007

KSC053-105-167-020715-
LINCOLN KS-RUSSELL KS-ELLSWORTH KS-
852 PM CDT WED AUG 1 2007

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 AM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN ELLSWORTH...SOUTHERN RUSSELL AND WESTERN LINCOLN
COUNTIES...

AT 849 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED THUNDERSTORMS  
WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER THE WARNED AREA...SPOTTERS IN THE AREA 
REPORTED VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES OF 3 INCHES PER HOUR

AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE 
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WARNED AREA. THIS IS A 
DANGEROUS FLOODING SITUATION

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

TO REPORT FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY
YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN
WICHITA.

LAT...LON 3868 9903 3868 9846 3881 9808 3914 9818
      3888 9877 3887 9903

$$

JAKUB

000 
WGUS73 KICT 020453
FFSICT

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1148 PM CDT WED AUG 1 2007

KSC053-105-167-020715-
LINCOLN KS-RUSSELL KS-ELLSWORTH KS-
1148 PM CDT WED AUG 1 2007

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 AM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN ELLSWORTH...SOUTHERN RUSSELL AND WESTERN LINCOLN
COUNTIES...

AT 1145 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS STILL REPORTED SOME 
FLOODING PROBLEMS ACROSS THE WARNED AREA...DUE TO EXCESSIVE RUNOFF 
FROM THE EARLIER HEAVY RAINFALL. THE EXCESSIVE RUNOFF WILL CONTINUE 
TO CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...COUNTRY ROADS...AS 
WELL AS FARMLAND ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

LAT...LON 3868 9903 3868 9846 3881 9808 3914 9818
      3888 9877 3887 9903

$$

JAKUB

000 
WGUS73 KICT 020716
FFSICT

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
216 AM CDT THU AUG 2 2007

KSC105-020726-
LINCOLN KS-
216 AM CDT THU AUG 2 2007

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR WESTERN LINCOLN COUNTY...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS
AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO
RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...
PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 3901 9848 3885 9847 3887 9810 3914 9818

$$

KETCHAM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
336 PM CDT WED AUG 1 2007

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERNS...
DEJA VU...CONVECTIVE CHANCES/TRENDS THRU MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...

VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS HAS RESULTED IN A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING...WITH WEAK
MVC DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA POSSIBLY AIDING
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS. OTHERWISE...THE BETTER
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHWARD MOVING WEAK COLD
FRONT ACROSS NEBRASKA TONIGHT...AS A MORE VIGOROUS UPPER TROF MOVES
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS ON THURSDAY...BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
DESPITE RATHER WEAK WINDS ALOFT...THE GIVEN MODEST INSTABILITY AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION ALONG IT...INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING NORTH
ON FRIDAY. RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND VERY SLOW
MOVEMENT WILL AGAIN PORTEND TO LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. THERE
IS SOME CONCERN FOR A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL KANSAS INTO THURSDAY...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO GO WITH A FLOOD WATCH JUST YET.

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TURNS TO THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE OZARKS.
A SHORTWAVE WILL TOP THE MIGRATING RIDGE ON SATURDAY WITH WEAK
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...BEFORE BACKING TO THE
SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY. THE ADVERTISED WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
AND SLIGHT DRYING AT LOW LEVELS WOULD AGAIN SUGGEST THE INCREASE
IN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION/CAP ACROSS THE AREA UNDER THIS RIDGE.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED MIGHTILY IN THIS REGARD ALL
SUMMER LONG...WHICH LAST WEEKS DRY FORECAST FOR THIS WEEK HAS SO
DEMONSTRATED. THIS IS PROBABLY DUE TO A STRONG CLIMO BIAS WHICH
HAS NOT TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT THE UNUSUALLY GREEN/WET SOIL CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THOUGH THERE IS SOME REASON GLEAN TO
LOWER POPS IN THE LATTER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST...IT IS QUITE
LIKELY THAT THE DRYING/WARMING PROCESS WILL BE SLOWER...AND AM
VERY HESITANT TO KEEP SHOWING A DRY DAY 5 TO 7 PERIOD AS WE HAVE
FOR SOME TIME. THEREFORE...FORECAST COLLABORATION EFFORTS WERE
SOMEWHAT SUCCESSFUL IN GETTING BUY-IN ON AT LEAST ISOLATED MENTION
OF LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WILL
ALSO STAVE OFF THE CENTURY MARK TYPE READINGS JUST YET...THOUGH
HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY REACH OR EXCEED THIS VALUE IN THE COMING
DAYS.

DARMOFAL

&&

.AVIATION...
WEAK MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS REMAINS FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA DOWN OVER
CENTRAL/EASTERN KS THIS AFTERNOON. AS AFTERNOON
HEATING/INSTABILITY INCREASE AND CAP DISINTEGRATES...ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL TS MAY DEVELOP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN
OUR AREA. WILL CARRY CB CLOUD GROUP IN TAFS TO ACCOUNT FOR
ISOLATED COVERAGE. LATER TONIGHT...CONVECTION ALONG APPROACHING
COLD FRONT FROM NEBRASKA INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO MAY SURVIVE AS
FAR SOUTHEAST AS RSL TAF SITE...SO CARRYING A VCTS OVERNIGHT
THERE. MVFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG POSSIBLE EARLY THURSDAY AM MAINLY
IN SOUTHERN TAF SITES DUE TO LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT AND LOW
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    71  91  72  91 /  20  20  20  20
HUTCHINSON      70  90  71  90 /  30  30  30  20
NEWTON          71  91  72  90 /  20  30  30  20
ELDORADO        70  91  71  91 /  10  20  20  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  92  72  92 /  10  20  20  10
RUSSELL         70  88  70  89 /  40  50  50  30
GREAT BEND      70  89  70  90 /  30  40  40  20
SALINA          71  90  72  91 /  30  40  40  30
MCPHERSON       70  90  71  91 /  30  30  30  30
COFFEYVILLE     69  93  70  92 /  10  20  20  10
CHANUTE         69  92  70  91 /  10  20  20  20
IOLA            69  92  70  91 /  10  20  20  20
PARSONS-KPPF    69  93  70  92 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
413 PM CDT WED AUG 1 2007

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-022215-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
413 PM CDT WED AUG 1 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS WIDELY SCATTERED ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. AN ISOLATED
STRONG STORM IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS...WITH WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL. HOWEVER THE MAIN
RISK WILL REMAIN LOCALIZED BUT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WHICH
COULD RESULT IN MINOR LOW-LAND FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KANSAS. WHILE AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM IS POSSIBLE...THE MAIN RISK WILL
CONTINUE TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH MINOR LOW-LAND FLOODING
POSSIBLE.

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST...BUT WILL
BECOME MORE ISOLATED...FROM SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS...WHICH WILL OCCUR
PRIMARILY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

HEAT INDICES WILL REACH OR EXCEED 100 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

KED

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
545 PM CDT WED AUG 1 2007

KSZ032-012330-
RUSSELL-
545 PM CDT WED AUG 1 2007

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR RUSSELL COUNTY...

AT 541 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PARADISE...OR 16 MILES NORTHWEST OF
RUSSELL...AND MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THIS STORM INTENSIFIES AND
BECOMES SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

JAKUB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
720 PM CDT WED AUG 1 2007

KSZ033-020100-
LINCOLN-
720 PM CDT WED AUG 1 2007

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR LINCOLN COUNTY...

AT 717 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF LINCOLN...OR NEAR LINCOLN...
AND MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

GUSTY WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

JAKUB