Flash Flood Warning 28, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1245 AM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS...MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST IS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE SQUALL LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS...WITH WIND GUSTS TO 50
MPH AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE. THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. WITH
TIMING UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...WENT WITH VICINITY THUNDER FOR
KCNU ONLY.

SCHRECK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 830 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2007/

MESO UPDATE...
CURRENT MCS CLUSTER AFFECTING RUSSELL...BARTON...ELLIS...RUSH
COUNTIES APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING ALONG A W TO E OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
THAT EXTENDS FROM WEST CENTRAL THRU CENTRAL KS. 30-35 KT SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WITH MLCAPES TO 2000 J/KG INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN PART OF
SOUTH CENTRAL KS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...ALONG WITH
INCREASED WIND CONVERGENCE INTO THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. CORFIDI VECTORS
SUGGEST EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD PROPAGATION WITH THIS CLUSTER POSSIBLY
REACHING I-135 BY 04 OR 05Z. INCREASING LOW LEVEL HELICITY AND
0-1KM SHEAR ALONG WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON HAVILAND...LAPS
RUC40 SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CONTINUE LIKELY WITH
LARGE HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF I-135.
DAMAGING WIND THREAT A BIT ENHANCED THIS EVE WITH 0-3KM SHEAR
VECTORS OF 30-35 KT.

JMC

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2007/

UPDATE FOR AVIATION SECTION...

AVIATION... 00Z TAFS RSL/SLN/HUT/ICT/CNU
WIDELY SCATTERED TS LIKELY WEST OF INTERSTATE 135 THIS EVENING AS
850 LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA.
STRONGEST LIFT PROGGED 05Z THRU 12Z IN CENTRAL KS PER GFS /NAM-
WRF. SO ORGANIZED CONVECTION POSSIBLE IN THAT TIME WINDOW. WILL
THEREFORE CARRY TEMPO TS GROUPS AT RSL/SLN/HUT 05Z-10Z.
UNCERTAINTIES EXIST REGARDING CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS AND IMPACT
ON HEATING FRIDAY...SO WILL ONLY CARRY VCTS OR VCSH AT TAF SITES
BEYOND 12Z FRIDAY DESPITE COLD FRONT IN AREA.

JMC

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2007/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS FOCUS ON SEVERE THUNDERSTORM/HEAVY
RAIN/FLOODING POTENTIAL TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

RATHER COMPLEX SCENARIO EXPECTED TO UNFOLD TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE BREAKING OUT ACROSS
WEST/NORTHWEST/NORTHERN KANSAS AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA IN ZONE OF
850-700MB WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. ANTICIPATE THIS
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO MOVE/DEVELOP EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...WITH MORE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE FARTHER SOUTHWEST
OVER WESTERN/SOUTHWEST KANSAS...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND COLD FRONT
ENCROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN AND WESTERN KANSAS PER SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE.

ANTICIPATING A RATHER ACTIVE NIGHT...WITH ONE OR MORE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES PROGRESSING ACROSS KANSAS...AIDED BY STRONG LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY. THINKING CURRENT
ACTIVITY OVER NORTHWEST/NORTHERN KANSAS MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS BY THIS EVENING...WITH MORE ACTIVITY POSSIBLY
MOVING/DEVELOPING INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS LATER TONIGHT. GIVEN
FAIRLY SATURATED GROUNDS OVER MAINLY CENTRAL KANSAS...DECIDED TO GO
WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH 7PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 1PM FRIDAY FOR
RENO...HARVEY AND MARION COUNTIES ON NORTHWESTWARD. CONDITIONS ALSO
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...ESPECIALLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT
GENERALLY WEST OF THE TURNPIKE...GIVEN AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
INCREASING INSTABILITY. MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. IN FACT...GIVEN PERPENDICULAR ORIENTATION OF 700-500MB WINDS
AND DECENT 0-3KM SHEAR...THINKING ONE OR MORE FORWARD PROPAGATING
COMPLEXES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ENHANCING DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING...LOCATION AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
ANY THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX(ES). ADDITIONALLY...STORMS SHOULD BE FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE (ESPECIALLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT) WHICH MAY TEND TO DECREASE
WIDESPREAD VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...FELT IT PRUDENT TO
ISSUE THE WATCH GIVEN 3 HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE OF ONLY 1.5 INCHES
ACROSS CENTRAL KS.

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...WITH BOUNDARY
SLOWING DOWN SOMEWHERE OVER THE TURNPIKE/FLINT HILLS. DECIDED
AGAINST EXTENDING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH PAST 1 PM GIVEN THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE UNCERTAINTY...BUT CONTINUED HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL CONTINUE HEAVY RAIN THREAT. STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR
POSSIBLE GENERALLY ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF THE TURNPIKE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...ESPECIALLY IF SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION OCCURS.

LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY
CONTINUING TO ROTATE SOUTHEASTWARD ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER
MIDWEST LOW SHOULD RESULT IN CONTINUED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MAINLY SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWING DOWN OR MAYBE
EVEN STALLING ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER...COULD BE LOOKING AT
CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS
ON FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY.

THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT BY SUNDAY...AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN
BREAKING DOWN WESTERN CONUS RIDGE IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY
COMING ONSHORE. STILL QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD BETWEEN VARIOUS MODELS
AND GFS ENSEMBLES...BUT CONSENSUS IS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS BY WEDNESDAY...WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
POSSIBLY INCREASING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

KLEINSASSER

AVIATION...
COMPOSED FOR THE 18Z TAFS AT 1128 AM CDT...NOT A LOT OF TAF
CONCERNS FOR THE FIRST 6 HOURS AS WARM AIR IN THE MID LAYERS
KEEPING THINGS CAPPED. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
AFTER 06Z/FRI ACROSS CEN KS NEAR KRSL AND KHUT AND POSSIBLY KICT.
WOULD PREFER TO GO WITH VCTS AFTER 06Z IN CEN KS UNTIL WE SEE
WHERE THIS COMPLEX WILL TRACK. CERTAINLY COULD SEE SOME +TSRA AND
VARIABLE WINDS GUSTING TO 35 TO 45 KNOTS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    61  81  61  83 /  50  20  20  10
HUTCHINSON      59  82  60  82 /  30  10  10  10
NEWTON          60  81  60  82 /  40  20  10  10
ELDORADO        62  80  60  82 /  50  20  20  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   63  81  61  83 /  50  30  20  10
RUSSELL         55  81  59  82 /  20  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      56  81  60  83 /  20  10  10  10
SALINA          57  81  59  82 /  30  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       59  81  60  82 /  30  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     63  80  61  82 /  50  40  20  10
CHANUTE         63  80  61  81 /  50  30  20  10
IOLA            63  80  61  81 /  50  30  20  10
PARSONS-KPPF    63  80  61  81 /  50  40  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ032-033-047>052-
067-068.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
426 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2007

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-012230-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
426 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE OR DEVELOP INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY
BE SEVERE...PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 80 MPH...AND
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS. ADDITIONALLY...AREAS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE...WHICH MAY LEAD TO MORE FLOODING
CONCERNS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MORE
DETAILS ON THE FLOODING POTENTIAL.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD STAY CONFINED TO AREAS
GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE MAINLY BEFORE 1
AM. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CONTINUE ALL NIGHT...AND
MAY REACH INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS. ADDITIONALLY...A FEW
STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

CONTINUED STRONG STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL...GUSTY
WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY...AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PROGRESSES ACROSS THE AREA. REFER
TO THE LATEST FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE FLOODING
POTENTIAL.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS. THE THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN
AND LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
FOR AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE.
ADDITIONALLY...REPORTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND FLOODING
WOULD BE GREATLY APPRECIATED.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

REC/BDK/ADK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
222 AM CDT FRI JUN 01 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0218 AM     TSTM WND DMG     GEUDA SPRINGS           37.11N 97.15W
06/01/2007                   SUMNER             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SVERAL TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN IN GEUDA SPRINGS ALSO A
            BARN WAS MISSING MOST OF ITS ROOF

&&

MJR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
224 AM CDT FRI JUN 01 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0218 AM     TSTM WND GST     ARKANSAS CITY           37.07N 97.04W
06/01/2007  E65 MPH          COWLEY             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL TREE LIMBS DOWN, POWER OUT IN ARKANSAS CITY,WINDS
            WERE SUSTAINED AT 60 TO65 MILES AN HOUR FOR AROUND 10
            MINUTES.

&&

MJR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
229 AM CDT FRI JUN 01 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0227 AM     TSTM WND GST     10 E ARKANSAS CITY      37.07N 96.86W
06/01/2007  E65 MPH          COWLEY             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MJR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
239 AM CDT FRI JUN 01 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0209 AM     TSTM WND DMG     ARKANSAS CITY           37.07N 97.04W
06/01/2007                   COWLEY             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS LARGE TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN ACROSS MUCH OF
            THE CITY. SEVERAL ROOFS BLOWN OFF OF HOMES AND SEMI
            TRACTOR TRAILOR BLOWN OFF THE HIGHWAY.

&&

CDJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
240 AM CDT FRI JUN 01 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0235 AM     TSTM WND GST     15 ENE ARKANSAS CITY    37.15N 96.79W
06/01/2007  E75 MPH          COWLEY             KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

JMC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
243 AM CDT FRI JUN 01 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0242 AM     TSTM WND GST     HOWARD                  37.47N 96.26W
06/01/2007  E60 MPH          ELK                KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

MJR