Flash Flood Warning 13, NWS Fort Worth, TX

000 
WGUS74 KFWD 132225
FFSFWD

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
424 PM CST SAT JAN 13 2007

TXC161-349-140030-
NAVARRO TX-FREESTONE TX-
424 PM CST SAT JAN 13 2007

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CST FOR
FREESTONE AND NAVARRO COUNTIES...

AT 421 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED 
CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN FROM EAST OF EUREKA...TO FAIRFIELD. HEAVY RAIN 
EXTENDED SOUTHWEST INTO LIMESTONE COUNTY. MOVEMENT WAS NORTHEAST AT 
35 MPH.

THIS REMAINS A DANGEROUS FLOOD SITUATION. WIDESPREAD FLOODING HAS 
BEEN REPORTED...WITH ROADS CLOSED IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NAVARRO 
COUNTY...AND NORTHERN FREESTONE COUNTY. AVOID TRAVEL IF AT ALL 
POSSIBLE.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE FLOODING 
OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...COUNTRY ROADS...AS WELL AS FARMLAND 
ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

FLOODING IS OCCURRING. IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER 
GROUND IMMEDIATELY. RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD 
TAKE IMMEDIATE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT 
ATTEMPT TO CROSS SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH 
BY FOOT OR BY AUTOMOBILE.

LAT...LON 3180 9649 3182 9672 3208 9689 3232 9641
      3231 9632 3215 9611 3210 9612 3208 9607
      3187 9600 3189 9596 3179 9599 3175 9588
      3169 9586 3169 9579 3163 9579 3143 9624

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1200 PM CST SAT JAN 13 2007

.AVIATION...
1200 PM CST

AWWDFW THROUGH 3 PM FOR DFW. MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IF FZDZ IS
SIGNIFICANT THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO UPDATE DFW OPS.

MODERATE/HEAVY PRECIP WILL AFFECT DALLAS COUNTY FIRST FEW HOURS OF
NEW TAF. PRIMARILY -FZDZ WITH IFR CIGS AND BR FOR DFW/FTW/AFW. CIGS
AND VSBY WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE...LIFR CIGS TO PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT. FUTURE TAF ISSUANCES WILL FURTHER FINE-TUNING TIMING AND
PARAMETERS WITH NEXT ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIP LATE TONIGHT. HEAVY
PRECIP LOOKS TO BE AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY...LIGHTNING IN ADDITION TO
HEAVY ICING WILL LIKELY REQUIRE EXTENDED AWW SUNDAY FOR DFW/DAL.

THANKS TO CWSU ZFW FOR COORDINATION. 25

&&

.UPDATE...
1125 AM CST

FREEZING TEMPERATURE LINE CURRENTLY NEAR A GAINESVILLE...DFW...TO
LAMPASAS LINE AT THIS TIME.  FIRST SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR HAS LOST SOME
OF ITS MOMENTUM...BUT HAS STILL MANGED TO MOVE THROUGH ALL OF NORTH
TEXAS AS OF 11 AM.  ARCTIC AIR REINFORCEMENT (MOST EVIDENT FROM THE
LOWER DEW POINTS)...CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AT
THIS TIME... WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH AND SHOULD ENTER INTO NORTH
TEXAS THIS EVENING. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON WILL
FALL EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FREEZING LINE...NEAR AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35.  IN THE SUB FREEZING AIR...MAINLY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SLEET
IN THE DEEPER COLDER AIR NEAR THE RED RIVER.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE NEXT IMPULSE OF ENERGY OVER THE FAR WEST
TEXAS.  THIS LIFT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
IMPACTS WITH THIS SECOND ROUND OF PRECIPITATION COULD BE FAR GREATER
DUE TO SEVERAL HOURS OF TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING AND MORE ROAD
SURFACE BECOME ICE COVERED.

WILL LEAVE CURRENT WARNINGS/WATCHES AND ADVISORIES IN PLACE FOR NOW.
NO UPDATES NEEDED.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
540 AM

AWFUL WEATHER TODAY FOR AVIATION...OR ANYTHING ELSE FOR THAT MATTER.
MAY HAVE 2-4 MORE HOURS AT DFW/DAL BEFORE FZRA SETS IN.  EXPECT
FZRA/RA/VCTS TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING...BUT TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON
AS FIRST SHORTWAVE EXITS.  SHALLOW FRONTOGENESIS/ISENTROPIC ASCENT
OVER FRONT WOULD SUPPORT -FZDZ/BR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH VSBYS FLUCTUATING BETWEEN MVFR/VFR...BUT CIGS LIKELY HOLDING AT
IFR OR WORSE.  NEXT SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE REACHING THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND HAVE SHOWN 2SM FZRA COMING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT
IN ALL TAFS.  ALSO INCLUDED A VCTS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LAPSE RATES
WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS.  COULD BE SOME HEAVY FREEZING
RAIN AND DE-ICING OPS AT DFW MAY HAVE TO BE SUSPENDED COMPLETELY
SUNDAY MORNING.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND AMEND TAFS AS NEEDED.

TR.92

&&

.DISCUSSION...
450 AM CST

SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z MONDAY)...
ONE OF THE MORE INTERESTING FORECASTS IN QUITE SOME TIME. WINTER
WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINS WITH POSSIBLE FLOODING...ALL IN ONE
PACKAGE. WILL BE BRIEF DUE TO TIME CONSTRAINTS BUT WILL TRY TO
COVER ALL THE BASES.

FIRST...THE WINTER WEATHER. WE HAVE EXPANDED THE ICE STORM WARNING
SLIGHTLY EAST AND SOUTH AS THE FREEZE LINE CONTINUES TO SLIDE
FASTER AND FARTHER THAN MODELS DEPICTED AND WE EARLIER THOUGHT.
WE ALSO EXTENDED THE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TIME PERIOD. THE GFS HAS NOT HANDLED
THIS EVENT VERY WELL WHILE THE NAM HAS BEEN CLOSER...ESPECIALLY
WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES...SO WE HAVE FOLLOWED THE NAM TEMP
GUIDANCE. WHERE IT IS FREEZING NOW...WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
SIGNIFICANT WARMUP FOR 48 HOURS SO THERE WILL BE LITTLE
IMPROVEMENT IN ICE PROBLEMS. WE EXPECT THE FREEZE LINE TO TRAVEL
SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE EAST AND SOUTH TODAY BUT NOT FAR...PARTIALLY
DUE TO HEAVY RAINS (MORE ABOUT THAT LATER). THIS AREA MAY WAFFLE
BACK AND FORTH FROM JUST BELOW FREEZING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE...HENCE
WE WILL CONTINUE THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN THIS AREA.

IT WILL NOT RAIN CONTINUOUSLY THE NEXT 48 HOURS BUT WILL COME IN
WAVES AS UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES TRAVERSE THE REGION. THE
FIRST...COMING OUT OF THE BIG BEND AREA...WILL AFFECT THE AREA
TODAY. THE SECOND ONE...PROGGED TO EJECT NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...COULD PRODUCE EVEN MORE PRECIP THAN TODAYS. SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY SHOULD SEE THE LAST WAVE OF ENERGY TO BRING WINTER PRECIP.

WITH THIS ADDITIONAL LIFT...THERE WILL BE AREAS OF HEAVY
RAIN...JUST WHAT WE DONT NEED FALLING INTO FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
ICE ACCUMULATION IN THE WARNING AREA WILL BE BAD TODAY...BUT WE
EXPECT IT TO BECOME WORSE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.  BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS MONDAY...WE WILL LIKELY SEE A NUMBER OF POWER
OUTAGES AFFECTING QUITE A FEW NORTH TEXANS.

IN ADDITION...THESE HEAVY RAINS WILL WARM THE SURFACE
AIR...SLIGHTLY...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE FREEZE LINE TO RETROGRADE
SLIGHTLY...THEN SURGE BACK AFTER THE RAINS END. THUS SOME
AREAS...MAINLY THOSE IN THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AREA...MAY
ALTERNATE BETWEEN LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND HEAVY RAIN.

TO THE EAST OF THE ICE STORM WARNING...WE EXPECT HEAVY RAINS AND
POSSIBLE FLOODING WITH TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE AND
THREE INCHES...WITH ISOLATED FOUR INCH AMOUNTS. BASICALLY...THE
AREA NOT IN THE ICE STORM WARNING IS IN A FLOOD WATCH.

LONG TERM DISCUSSION (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
MODELS ARE HITTING AT A FINAL BAND OF PRECIP MONDAY MORNING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA AS MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS OVERSPREADS THE AREA.
THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ACROSS THE SE
CWA WHERE MORE MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE.  WE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH FOR THE COUNTIES SE OF THE ICE WARNING AND FREEZING RAIN
ADV FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY PERIOD.  FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE MODES BEFORE ACTIVITY FINALLY
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA BY TUESDAY.  RIGHT NOW WE ARE NOT SURE
IF WARNING CRITERIA WILL BE MET...BUT THE WATCH IS A HEADS UP FOR A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OR WINTER STORM WARNING WHICH CAN BE BETTER
ASSESSED BY THE LATER SHIFTS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY COLD WITH A COUPLE NIGHTS OF TEENS IN THE
OUTLYING AREAS MON-TUE.  MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY GRADUALLY MODIFY AS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.  SOME HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES EARLY IN THE
WEEK...BEFORE HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS SPREAD BACK INTO THE ENTIRE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL BE AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH...WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIP THURSDAY NIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY.  THE GFS IS INDICATING FREEZING RAIN...BUT GIVEN
THE WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT...HAVE KEPT PRECIP ALL LIQUID AT THIS
TIME. WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN POSSIBLE...DAY TIME TEMPS WILL REMAIN
RATHER CHILLY...BUT LOWS SHOULD COME UP INTO THE MID 30S.

42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  31  30  30  24  32 / 100 100 100  60  40
WACO, TX              35  32  35  29  33 / 100 100 100  80  60
PARIS, TX             37  30  32  24  33 / 100 100 100  60  30
DENTON, TX            30  29  30  23  31 / 100 100 100  40  30
MCKINNEY, TX          32  29  31  24  31 / 100 100 100  60  30
DALLAS, TX            31  31  31  25  32 / 100 100 100  60  40
TERRELL, TX           37  32  32  27  34 / 100 100 100  60  50
CORSICANA, TX         42  33  35  29  32 / 100 100 100  80  60
TEMPLE, TX            39  33  36  29  32 / 100 100 100  80  60

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ091>094-100>104-115>120-129>133-141>144-156-157.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ095-105>107-121>123-134-135-145>148-158>162-174-175.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ107-122-123-135-146>148-158>162-174-175.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ095-105-106-121-134-145.

&&

79/25
06/91/77/20

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
551 AM CST SAT JAN 13 2007

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-141200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
551 AM CST SAT JAN 13 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ARE
BRINGING A MIXTURE OF WEATHER TO NORTH TEXAS TODAY THAT WILL LAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY...THE WESTERN HALF WILL SEE WINTER
PRECIPITATION TODAY...WHILE THE EAST WILL SEE HEAVY RAINS.

FREEZING RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED IN AN ICE STORM WARNING AREA
TODAY...GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A
BONHAM...DALLAS...MERIDIAN...LAMPASAS LINE. TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS
BETWEEN ONE QUARTER AND ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE. ALONG AND JUST TO
THE EAST OF THIS AREA...A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
ICE ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH.

ALL OF NORTH TEXAS TO THE EAST OF THE ICE STORM WARNING AREA IS
UNDER A FLOOD WATCH. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE AND THREE
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED FOUR INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALL OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH
TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG AND PRODUCE SMALL
HAIL...VERY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE WINTER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY
WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM FINALLY MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. THE ICE
STORM WARNING AND THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY. A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE REGION FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE IN EFFECT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALL OF NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY. SOME
OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG AND PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...VERY HEAVY
RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ISOLATED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THROUGH TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
120 PM CST SAT JAN 13 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0118 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 S CORSICANA           32.01N  96.47W
01/13/2007                   NAVARRO            TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FLOODING ON SECONDARY ROADS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST PART
            OF COUNTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
146 PM CST SAT JAN 13 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0136 PM     FLASH FLOOD      8 SE GROESBECK          31.44N  96.44W
01/13/2007                   LIMESTONE          TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FLOODING CONTINUING ALONG F.M. 937 SOUTHEAST OF
            GROESBECK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
200 PM CST SAT JAN 13 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0156 PM     FLASH FLOOD      ROSEBUD                 31.07N  96.98W
01/13/2007                   FALLS              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER OVER ROADS NEAR ROSEBUD...AND NEAR GOLINDA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
202 PM CST SAT JAN 13 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0201 PM     FREEZING RAIN    LEWISVILLE              33.04N  96.98W
01/13/2007  E0.05 INCH       DENTON             TX   PUBLIC

            ICE ACCUMULATING ON TREES/GRASS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
310 PM CST SAT JAN 13 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     FLASH FLOOD      WORTHAM                 31.79N  96.46W
01/13/2007                   FREESTONE          TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FLOODING CONTINUING ON SECONDARY ROADS IN
            STREETMAN/WORTHAM/TEAGUE AREA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
311 PM CST SAT JAN 13 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0308 PM     FLASH FLOOD      RICHLAND                31.93N  96.43W
01/13/2007                   NAVARRO            TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            CREEKS OUT OF BANKS...SECONDARY ROADS FLOODED EAST/SOUTH
            PARTS OF COUNTY