Severe Thunderstorm Warning 286, NWS Atlanta, GA

000 
WWUS52 KFFC 201713
SVSFFC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
113 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2007

GAC045-201730-
/O.CON.KFFC.SV.W.0286.000000T0000Z-070720T1730Z/
CARROLL GA-
113 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 130 PM EDT
FOR CARROLL COUNTY...

AT 110 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CLEM...
MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS
OF THE INDICATED COUNTY.

IF YOU SEE WIND DAMAGE...LARGE HAIL OR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING...WAIT
UNTIL AFTER THE STORM HAS PASSED...AND THEN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE TOLL FREE AT 1 8 6 6 7 6 3 4 4 6 6.

LAT...LON 3369 8509 3365 8533 3343 8503 3355 8481

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1130 AM EDT FRI JUL 20 2007

.UPDATE...
THE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED TO REFLECT THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH THAT WAS JUST ISSUED. CURRENTLY THERE IS AN E-W ORIENTED
LINE OF STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AL/GA THAT IS STRENGTHENING AND
SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWARD. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS STILL OVER AL BUT
EXPECTING IT TO GROW INTO NW AND WEST CENTRAL GA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 AM EDT FRI JUL 20 2007/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAIN PROBLEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LOW POPS PROGGED BY THE MAV/MET
GUIDANCE. GIVEN YESTERDAYS CONVECTION AND THE ISOLATED CONVECTION
CURRENTLY GOING ON...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS TROPICAL AND
UNSTABLE...NOW ADD TO IT THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO GEORGIA
TODAY...LIKELY POPS STILL LOOK GOOD FOR THIS AFTERNOON. LIKELY
POPS MAY BE NEEDED IN THE EXTREME NORTH THIS MORNING AS THE
CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER TENNESSEE DRIFTS SOUTHWARD AND COULD BE
INTO THE STATE BY DAYBREAK. THE FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL GA BY
TONIGHT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO NORTH GA ENDING THE PRECIP FROM
THE NORTH AND THE SREF DATA IS ALSO IN AGREEMENT. THE NEXT PROBLEM
IS THE H5 LOW THAT APPEARS OVER VIRGINIA SATURDAY NIGHT ON THE GFS
AND NAM. HOWEVER THE SREF KEEPS A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
WITH NO CLOSED LOW. IT IS VERY UNCLIMO FOR THIS CLOSED LOW TO
DEVELOP OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD IN JULY BUT NOT UNHEARD OF.
IF THIS DOES OCCUR IT WILL ALSO POOL COLDER AIR ALOFT...SOME OF
WHICH DRIFTS INTO NORTHEAST GA SUNDAY AND THIS COULD BRING A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEAST GA DURING DAYTIME HEATING. AT
THIS POINT WILL ADD A 20 POP IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. PERSISTENCE ON TEMPS TODAY...MAV HAS BEEN WAY TOO WARM
PER LOCAL BIAS TABLES.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM IS A BIT MESSY MODEL-WISE AS THE GFS LIFTS THE H5 LOW
NORTHEAST BUT KEEPS A WEAK TROUGH FROM NEW ENGLAND TO SOUTHERN
LA...AND THEN RE-DEVELOPS THE H5 LOW OVER WEST VIRGINIA AND DROPS IT
TO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA BY FRIDAY MORNING. MREF DATA
INDICATES A TROUGH...BUT NO CLOSED LOW. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT...THE
PROXIMITY TO THE CLOSED LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE LONG TERM BEGINNING MONDAY.
IF THE MREF IS CORRECT AND THE TROUGH STAYS OVER US OR JUST TO OUR
WEST THEN WE WILL HAVE A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGING UP
GULF MOISTURE AND A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
SO EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF CONVECTION
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH THE LONG TERM. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
NEAR CLIMO.

AVIATION...
AFTER SOME FOG THIS MORNING AT THE NORMAL LOCATIONS DUE TO LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THURSDAYS RAIN...THE ISSUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL
BE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. BIG PROBLEM FOR TODAY IS TIMING OF THUNDER.
GOING FORECAST WITH VCTS AT MOST SITES FOR THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING
TIME FRAME LOOKS GOOD...WITH TEMPO THUNDER AND MVFR SKY IN FOR THE
MOST CONVECTIVE TIME PERIOD. AS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...WINDS AT
METRO SITES SHOULD SWING AROUND TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          92  66  90  65  86 /  60  20  10  10  10
ATLANTA         88  68  88  67  86 /  60  20  10   5  10
BLAIRSVILLE     80  58  82  57  81 /  70  20  10   5  20
CARTERSVILLE    85  64  89  61  86 /  70  20  10   5  10
COLUMBUS        95  72  92  69  92 /  50  40  10   5  10
GAINESVILLE     89  66  87  66  84 /  60  20  10   5  10
MACON           94  70  92  67  92 /  50  40  10   5  10
ROME            88  64  92  60  90 /  70  20   5   5  10
PEACHTREE CITY  89  64  89  60  87 /  60  30  10   5  10
VIDALIA         95  71  92  69  89 /  40  40  20   5  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

01/01

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
555 AM EDT FRI JUL 20 2007

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-211000-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
555 AM EDT FRI JUL 20 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF EXTENDS INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. A COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN TENNESSEE
THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH DURING THE DAY TODAY...AND
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE.

.DISCUSSION...
A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT IS MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MODERATE TODAY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA...WITH CAPES RANGING FROM 1000 TO 2000 AND LIFTED INDICES
FROM MINUS 2 TO MINUS 4. THE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA SATURDAY
AND ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1011 AM EDT FRI JUL 20 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 S ROCHELLE            31.92N 83.46W
07/19/2007                   WILCOX             GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGER RECEIVED REPORTS OF SEVERAL TREES DOWN
            AND TWO DELIVERY VEHICLES BLOWN OFF ROADWAYS SOUTH OF
            ROCHELLE.

&&

SBK