Flash Flood Warning 508, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1240 PM CDT FRI AUG 17 2007

.AVIATION...I-35 CORRIDOR TERMINALS OCNL MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING AFTER 00Z
VFR AND AFT 06Z MVFR CIGS REDEVELOPING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AFTER 14Z LCLY LOWERING VSBYS. KDRT TERMINAL VFR CIGS AROUND 4 THSD
AGL WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LOCALLY
LOWERING CIGS AND VSBYS TO MVFR BECOMING AFTER 03Z VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1219 PM CDT FRI AUG 17 2007/

UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO RAISE MAX TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES DUE TO A
LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1034 AM CDT FRI AUG 17 2007/

UPDATE...
LATE THIS MORNING THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN WAS
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER CROCKETT COUNTY. THE 12Z SOUNDINGS AT DRT
AND CRP WERE UNCAPPED WITH PWS OVER 2 INCHES SO WE EXPECT
CONVECTION TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS SFC TEMPS REACH CONVECTIVE
TRIGGER TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. THUS WE WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE CURRENT CONFIGURATION OF THE FFA. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
COPIOUS RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE ACROSS THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND TEXAS HILL COUNTRY...AREAS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY
OF THE CENTER OF ERIN. ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FCST.
GRIDS AND TEXT PRODUCTS UPDATED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT FRI AUG 17 2007/

DISCUSSION...
REMNANTS OF ERIN CONTINUE TO EFFECT THE HILL COUNTRY THIS
MORNING. THE CENTER OF THE LOW IS NEAR EDWARDS COUNTY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN DECREASING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT
STILL SEEING LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWEST. THIS WILL KEEP SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE
HILL COUNTRY UNDER THE GUN FOR TODAY. A DEEP CONNECTION OF
MOISTURE REMAINS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY INTO THE GULF.
DAYTIME HEATING AND OBVIOUS INSTABILITY WILL PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THUS...WILL CONTINUE THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING. AT THIS POINT...SEE NO
NEED TO EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

REMNANTS OF ERIN WILL REMAIN OVER TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
CENTER OF THE LOW WILL TRACK UP THROUGH THE HILL TOWARDS THE
PANHANDLE. HOWEVER...WITH HIGH PW VALUES AND AN UNSTABLE
AIRMASS...CHANCES OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK...JUST AS THIS UPPER LOW
MOVES INTO MEXICO ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE. THIS WILL CONTINUE
THE CHANCES OF RAIN FOR THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

CURRENT TPC TRACK FORECAST INDICATES HURRICANE DEAN JUST
NORTHWEST OF THE YUCATAN ON TUESDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON
WHERE IT MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. REGARDLESS IT STANDS TO BE POWERFUL HURRICANE...AND LIKELY
AFFECTING DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              90  76  86  76  93 /  80  50  50  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  88  75  87  74  92 /  80  50  50  20  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           88  77  92  77  93 /  70  70  40  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       89  77  87  77  92 /  70  50  40  20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...
CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...
GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...
KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...
UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.

&&

13/02

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
549 AM CDT FRI AUG 17 2007

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-181100-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
549 AM CDT FRI AUG 17 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. NUMEROUS TROPICAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN...LOCATED OVER THE
WESTERN TEXAS HILL COUNTRY...WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLASH FLOODING TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. GENERAL RAIN AMOUNTS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME SCATTERED ON SATURDAY...
CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
903 AM CDT FRI AUG 17 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 AM     HEAVY RAIN       13 NE FREDERICKSBURG    30.40N 98.72W
08/17/2007  M6.55 INCH       GILLESPIE          TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            6.55 INCHES SINCE MIDNIGHT.

&&

DC