Flash Flood Warning 490, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1010 AM CDT FRI MAR 30 2007

.DISCUSSION...
JUST UPDATED THE FORECASTS FOR TORNADO WATCH 92...VALID UNTIL 6 PM
THIS EVENING. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST REASONING AND BASIC
FORECAST TODAY. EXPECT THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT TO LAST THROUGH 6 PM
AND GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF U.S. 290...INCLUDING METRO
AUSTIN. ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
SOME MINOR FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING AND
EVENTUALLY RIVER FLOODING TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CDT FRI MAR 30 2007/

AVIATION...
A VERY MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS S TX ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING
UPPER TROF WILL RESULT IN IN SCT SHRA/TSRA OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING.
SHRA/TSRA INCREASING ACROSS S CENTRAL TX WITH SOME STORMS SVR
CONTAINING LARGE HAIL. IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM THE WEST WILL
NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 31/12Z AS THE UPPER TROF SWINGS BY AND A
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO S TX.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT FRI MAR 30 2007/

DISCUSSION...
WET AND STORMY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. DUE TO THE SLOW-MOVING NATURE OF THE
UPPER LOW, HEAVY RAINFALL IS A MAJOR CONCERN THROUGH THE NEXT
24-30 HOURS. DUE TO THIS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FROM 7 AM CDT TODAY THROUGH
7 AM CDT SATURDAY MORNING. AREA WIDE RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH MID-
DAY SATURDAY WILL AVERAGE 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. WHILE FLASH FLOODING IS THE PREDOMINANT
WEATHER CONCERN...HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD...POPS WILL DECREASE FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH ONLY SLT CHC POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE CWA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PEAK IN THE 80S ON
SUNDAY. THE WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL DIP INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER SLOW-MOVER...AND MAY LEAD TO A RENEWED
CHANCE FOR FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS. AT THIS POINT...HAVE POPS BACK
IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT THIS SCENARIO COULD
EASILY CHANGE AS THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM BECOMES MORE WELL-DEFINED
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED BY MID-WEEK...BRINGING
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN EARLY APRIL NORMALS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              76  59  73  58  87 / 100  90  60  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  75  62  73  52  84 / 100  90  60  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           77  63  82  62  87 /  70  60  10  -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       77  61  76  59  86 /  90  90  60  10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...
COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...
GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...
LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...
VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.

&&

26/02/13/10/05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
511 AM CDT FRI MAR 30 2007

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-311015-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
511 AM CDT FRI MAR 30 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THE IS A SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...HEAVY
RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE HILL
COUNTRY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT. THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.