Flash Flood Warning 455, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
451 AM CDT THU AUG 16 2007

.DISCUSSION...
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ERIN
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...
AS TROPICAL STORM ERIN MOVES FROM THE COASTAL BEND TO THE
SOUTHERN PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TO
THE WEST PART OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.
INDICATED FLASH FLOOD WATCH THRU FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE
AREA AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY AND THE ADDITIONAL
SUMMER RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE RUNOFF TO LOW LYING AREAS
AND RIVERS AGAIN...AS WHAT HAPPENED IN JUNE AND JULY.
KEPT WIND ADVISORY FOR LAVACA...DEWITT...KARNES AND ATASCOSA
COUNTIES THRU THE EARLY EVENING...AREAS THAT WILL BE CLOSE
TO THE CENTER OF ERIN...TO THE NORTH OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM...
AS IT MOVES INLAND ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS.  ADJUSTED WINDS IN
FORECASTS FOR ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BASED ON THE TRACK OF
ERIN AND ITS FORWARD MOVEMENT TO THE WEST...NORTHWEST THROUGH
TONIGHT. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN
MODERATED DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY AND FRIDAY.

BY SATURDAY ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL LINGER WITH WEAKNESS IN
HEIGHT FIELD ALOFT TO MENTION CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE CONDITIONS DEVELOP OVER
THE AREA FROM THE WEST SUNDAY SO SHOWED SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.  A SLOW TRANSITION TO MORE STABLE CONDITIONS
SHOWS UP FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THEN HEIGHT FIELD ALOFT
BEGINS TO WEAKEN AGAIN IN THE MID TO LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
AS A RESULT SHOWED SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON FOR THE MID TO LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              87  76  88  77  90 / 100  90  80  70  50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  87  75  88  77  91 / 100  90  80  70  50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           89  76  84  77  95 /  60  90  80  70  50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       85  76  87  77  91 / 100  90  80  70  50

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
ATASCOSA...BASTROP...BEXAR...CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...FAYETTE...
FRIO...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...LAVACA...LEE...
MEDINA...TRAVIS...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...BANDERA...BLANCO...BURNET...
DIMMIT...EDWARDS...GILLESPIE...KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...LLANO...
MAVERICK...REAL...UVALDE...VAL VERDE...AND ZAVALA COUNTIES.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
ATASCOSA...DE WITT...KARNES...LAVACA.

&&

08/03/DC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
519 AM CDT THU AUG 16 2007

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-171100-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
519 AM CDT THU AUG 16 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME NUMEROUS AND PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN MOVES
INLAND. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR ALL OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL STORM ERIN WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
INTO FRIDAY. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN
TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.