Flash Flood Warning 362, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
659 AM CDT SAT JUL 21 2007

.AVIATION...
CIGS AOB 1000 FT THRU 15Z WITH MVFR VSBYS FROM PATCHY
FOG/HAZE AND LIGHT RAIN WITH SCT SHRA AND TSRA.  CIGS
1 THSD TO 2 THSD BKN TO OVC AFTER 15Z WITH OCNL SHRA
AND TSRA. CIGS 3 THSD TO 6 THSD BKN FROM 19Z TO 03Z
WITH SCT SHRA AND TSRA. CIGS LOWERING AGAIN TO AROUND
1 TO 2 THSD BKN BY 04Z TO 06Z AND BECOMING CIGS 800 TO
1200 FT OVC FROM 07Z TO 12Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CDT SAT JUL 21 2007/

..WET AND DANGEROUS WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND...

DISCUSSION...
PERIODS OF RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION TODAY BEFORE DECREASING AFTER SUNSET. GROUNDS ARE ALREADY
THOROUGHLY SATURATED FROM RAINFALL THE PAST FEW DAYS (RECORDED
OVER 8 INCHES YESTERDAY HERE AT THE OFFICE) SO ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN
WILL BE QUICK TO RUNOFF. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO...THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WILL BE EXTENDED LATER THIS MORNING. WILL LIKELY SEE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS REACHING 3 TO 4 INCHES BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE
BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

THE RAIN THREAT WILL SHIFT TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA DURING
THE EVENING...WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF AFTER MIDNIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS A LITTLE DRIER AS
RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WILL STILL SEE SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY...BUT WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT UPON
DIURNAL HEATING. DRIER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE BEGINNING
OF THE WEEK...BUT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL STILL CARRY AT
LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
TIME FRAME DUE TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE...NORTH WINDS
ALOFT...AND MOIST UNSTABLE AIR THROUGH THE MID LEVELS.

THE RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN BY MID-WEEK AS THE
UPPER RIDGES INFLUENCES WEAKEN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A RENEWED POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING LATE IN THE
WEEK.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
DUE TO THE RAINY AND OVERCAST CONDITIONS. A SLIGHT WARMING TREND
IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEKEND...BUT DAYTIME HIGHS STILL LOOK TO BE
3 TO 5 DEGREES BELOW MID JULY NORMALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              82  71  92  73  93 /  70  20  40  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  82  70  92  70  91 /  70  20  40  20  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           83  73  93  75  93 / 100  60  20  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       82  72  91  73  93 /  70  20  30  20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...
CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...
GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...
KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...
UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.

&&

25/08

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
526 AM CDT SAT JUL 21 2007

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-221100-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
526 AM CDT SAT JUL 21 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT.  OCCASIONAL RAIN WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TODAY
THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE HILL
COUNTRY.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY.  THIS WILL LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING OF FLOOD PRONE AREAS...ON ROADS AND
AT LOW WATER CROSSINGS.  WHEN WATER COVERS THE ROAD...
TURN AROUND DONT DROWN.

.DAY TWO SUNDAY...
A MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE FOR MAINLY DAYTIME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY...DIMINISHING
BY THE EVENING HOURS.  SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

DAY THREE...MONDAY...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WEST PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EAST PART OF THE AREA.

.DAYS FOUR THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A FAIRLY WET JULY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DAYTIME TO EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.