Flash Flood Warning 256, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

000 
WGUS74 KEWX 291056
FFSEWX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
555 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2007

TXC137-291330-
EDWARDS TX-
555 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2007

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 AM CDT FOR
EDWARDS COUNTY...

AT 554 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 
PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING OVER THE WARNED AREA. CITIES IN THE WARNED AREA
INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO CARTA VALLEY AND ROCKSPRINGS.

IT IS HARD TO RECOGNIZE THE DANGERS OF FLOODING AT NIGHT. IF FLOOD
WATERS RISE ACT QUICKLY. DO NOT STAY IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED
AREAS...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR
LOCAL NEWS MEDIA FOR THE LATEST FLOOD INFORMATION.

DO NOT DRIVE WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD. TWO FEET OF RUSHING WATER
CAN CARRY AWAY MOST VEHICLES...INCLUDING SUVS AND PICKUPS. TURN
AROUND DONT DROWN.

LAT...LON 3012 9977 3011 9978 3009 9982 3010 9997
      2999 10001 2963 10012 2963 10069 3021 10067
      3028 9983

$$

000 
WGUS74 KEWX 291240
FFSEWX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
739 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2007

TXC137-291249-
EDWARDS TX-
739 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2007

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR EDWARDS COUNTY...

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER EDWARDS COUNTY THIS MORNING. RAIN 
AMOUNTS WILL TOTAL UP TO ONE QUARTER INCH.

LAT...LON 3012 9977 3011 9978 3009 9982 3010 9997
      2999 10001 2963 10012 2963 10069 3021 10067
      3028 9983

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1208 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2007

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE
BALCONES ESCARPMENT OVERNIGHT AND OVER THE DRT AREA BY DAYBREAK.
GULF MOISTURE WILL CREEP NORTHWARD TO SUPPORT ENHANCED CONVECTION
BY DAYBREAK, BUT UNTIL THEN, MOST ACTIVTY WILL FORM OUT OF THE MID
LEVELS. CLOUDS AOA 6000 FT APPEAR TO BE THICKENING ON SATELLITE
FOG IMAGERY, SO WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF LOW CIGS AND FOG UNTIL
AFTER 9Z. WITH A STABLE OUFLOW LEFT BEHIND FROM THE MCS THAT MOVED
OVER AND SOUTH OF SAT EARLY THURSDAY, WILL LEAVE THE CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS VAGUE FOR LATER UPDATES TO CLARIFY. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
SUPPORT LOTS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS BY AFTERNOON WITH DECREASING
CONVECTIVE TRENDS AGAIN BY FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 953 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2007/

UPDATE...
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAINED OVER THE HILL COUNTRY ALONG A WEAK
SURFACE TROF THIS EVENING...AND AIRMASS REMAINS FAIRLY STABLE
OVER MOST OF THE CWA AT THIS TIME. LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER THE EASTERN
CWA CONTINUE TO SHOW A SWLY DIRECTION AT THE LOWER LEVELS BUT
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME S TO SELY AND INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT...
WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE & FOCUS FOR DEVELOPING CONVECTION
EXPECTED ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER THE HILL COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. 00Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SIGNIFICANT
QPF BULLS-EYES OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND ADJACENT AREA OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS...SO NO CHANGES AND CONTINUING FLASH FLOOD WATCH
THRU 4 PM FRIDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2007/

AVIATION...
SUBSIDENT AIR FLOW FROM IN THE WAKE OF THE DYING MCS ACTIVITY
SHOULD MAKE FOR ALMOST AREA-WIDE VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER PART OF THE HILL
COUNTRY AND AREAS WELL EAST OF THE AUS AREA. IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
COULD DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS MANY AREAS DUE TO LIGHT WINDS
AND ABUNDANT GROUND MOISTURE, BUT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE
COMMON. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD RECOVER BY DAYBREAK AND REGENERATE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA FRIDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2007/

UPDATE...
MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER POPS FOR THE EVENING AS AIRMASS HAS
STABILIZED MOST AREAS. HOWEVER THE WESTERN CWA HAS TEMPERATURES IN
80S TO NEAR 90 ALONG WITH A SURFACE TROF THAT WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING WITH SPOTTY HEAVY RAINS. MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS ATMOSPHERE
RECOVERS AND SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE GULF RESUMES WITH THE
SURFACE TROF OVER THE WESTERN CWA POSSIBLY ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL...THEREFORE HAVE LIKELY POPS/HEAVY RAINFALL FROM
THE ESCARPMENT/I35 CORRIDOR INTO THE HILL COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2007/

DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON THE MID LEVEL N/S SHEAR AXIS OVER TEXAS WAS GENERALLY
ALIGNED ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR FROM LAREDO TO GAINESVILLE. SATELLITE
AND RADAR LOOPS DEPICT A COUPLE OF MCVS CENTERED NEAR SAN ANTONIO
AND OVER NORTH TEXAS. THE MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER TEXAS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NEEDLESS TO
SAY RAIN WILL REMAIN IN THE FCST FOR OUR CWFA THROUGH NEST WEEK.

CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WAS
BEGINNING TO WANE. HOWEVER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WERE DEVELOPING ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RAIN SHIELD WHERE CONVECTIVE
TEMPS HAVE BEEN REACHED. THE STORMS ALONG THE PERIPHERY MAY PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAINFALL.

MODEL SOLUTIONS ONCE AGAIN BRING AN MCS OVER NORTH TEXAS SOUTHWARD
INTO OUR CWFA LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS
HAVE THE RAIN BOMB OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA ON FRIDAY.
THE MODELS SHIFT THE BEST CHANCE OF TORRENTIAL RAINS SOUTHWEST
TOWARDS THE DEL RIO AND EAGLE PASS AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE EXACTLY WHERE THESE RAIN BOMBS
WILL OCCUR...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL OF THE
CWFA THRU 4 PM CDT FRIDAY.

THIS CONTINUES TO BE A VERY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              71  86  71  89  73 /  60  40  40  40  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  70  87  70  88  71 /  60  40  30  40  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           73  87  72  88  74 /  50  70  60  70  50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       72  83  72  88  74 /  60  70  40  40  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...
COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...
GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...
LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...
VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.

&&

01/18

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
441 AM CDT THU JUN 28 2007

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-291100-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
441 AM CDT THU JUN 28 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THIS EVENING WILL PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND SOME HAIL.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
CAUSE FLASH FLOODING ALONG CREEKS...STREAMS...RIVERS...AND
AT LOW WATER CROSSINGS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A WET LATE JUNE TO EARLY JULY RAINFALL PATTERN IS EXPECTED.
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND STRONG WINDS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY.