Flash Flood Warning 37, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1251 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT ON THE WAY WITH FLOODING AND SEVERE
WEATHER POSSIBLE.

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PAINTS THE PICTURE THIS MORNING AS
SIGNIFICANT UPPER JET ON THE ORDER OF 135KTS PUNCHING ONTO THE WEST
COAST. AREA PROFILER NETWORK SHOWING H5 JET OF 55KTS NOW PUSHING INTO
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH SFC PRESSURES
RESPONDING...ALREADY FALLING TO 995MB ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO.
THIS SEEMS TO BE SETTING UP A DECENT WARM FRONT ALONG THE
KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING AS WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO
THE SOUTH ACROSS MOST OF THE KANSAS OBSERVATION STATIONS. 00Z UPPER
AIR SOUNDINGS OUT OF KFWD AND KOUN REVEALING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS
ALREADY BEGUN ITS RAPID NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT AS EXPECTED WITH H85
DEWPOINTS ALREADY AT 12-13C. IN ADDITION...H85 PROFILER DATA SHOWING
45 KT LLJ AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS AIDING ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND RESULTANT CONVECTION ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR. ISENTROPIC ASCENT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND STRENGTHEN
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THEREFORE...RAIN
SEEMS A GOOD BET AND HAVE UPPER POPS TO 100 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT. WITH
CONTINUED AID OF ISENTROPIC LIFT...LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVERSPREADING
THE REGION...DECENT LAPSE RATES...AND INCREASING JET DYNAMICS...SOME
OF THE STORMS WITHIN WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME CAN CERTAINLY REACH
SEVERE CRITERIA DURING THE DAY TODAY.

BY MID AFTERNOON...MID LEVEL JET WILL HAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF
UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...RESULTING
IN A NEGATIVE TILT TO THE TROUGH AXIS TAKING SHAPE. THIS SHOULD BRING
THE NOSE OF THE JET ACROSS THE MIDWEST BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
WITH HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUING TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. EXPECTING
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE WHICH IS PROGGED
TO SET UP ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THERE REMAINS
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL DEPICTION OF THE DRYLINE LOCATION AND
THIS COULD HAVE SOME IMPACTS TO SEVERE POTENTIAL. IF A FURTHER EAST
AND NORTH SOLUTION OF THE SFC LOW AND DRYLINE POSITION
SOLIDIFIES...AN INCREASED THREAT FOR LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SVR
CONVECTION IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. ATTM...IT APPEARS MAIN FOCUS OF
STRONGER CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO
WESTERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. THIS IS GENERALLY WHERE SPC
HAS DRAWN THE MODERATE RISK AREA AND AGREE WITH THIS ASSESSMENT. WITH
COLDER MID LEVEL TEMPS OVERSPREADING THE REGION...LAPSE RATES SHOULD
STEEPEN WITH THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY. IN
ADDITION...WITH STRENGTH OF THE WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM ALONG WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND SUBSEQUENT LOW LCL
HEIGHTS...A TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST. MAIN CAVEATS TO THE SVR
POTENTIAL WILL BE WITH AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION AND TIMING OF
CONVECTION. WITH SUCH A PRONOUNCED WAA REGIME TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP WILL BE LIKELY.
THEREFORE...ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND ADDITIONAL HEATING WILL ONLY
ADD TO THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. TIMING REMAINS THE OTHER CONCERN AS MOST
INTENSE STORMS WILL LIKELY NOT REACH THE CWA UNTIL TONIGHT WHEN
NOCTURNAL ISSUES WILL BE PRESENT. THEREFORE...THE SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES WOULD BE POSE THE HIGHEST THREAT OF SEVERE BY THE EVENING
HOURS...ALTHOUGH AGAIN SEEMS MAIN ACTION WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA.

OTHER MAJOR ISSUE WILL BE WITH FLOODING CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. GPSMET PRECIPITABLE WATER THIS MORNING SHOWING VALUES
CLOSING IN ON 1.5IN WITH OVER 2IN NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS. THIS WOULD SUPPORT EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AND A
THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING. THE MAIN CAVEAT WILL BE FAST STORM MOTIONS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS JET DYNAMICS INCREASE. HOWEVER...OVERALL
COVERAGE WOULD SEEM TO OFFSET THIS ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING
STORMS. THEREFORE...CONTINUED WITH FLASH FLOOD WATCH WHILE ADDING A
FEW COUNTIES ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI WHERE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
REMAINS FAIRLY LOW.

PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING EFFECTIVELY ENDING RAIN CHANCES MOMENTARILY.
UPPER SYSTEM BECOMES MORE VERTICALLY STACKED ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA
BY TOMORROW WITH THE CHANCE FOR WRAP AROUND PRECIP TO AFFECT THE
REGION. WITH COLD TEMPS ALOFT OVERSPREADING THE AREA...ANY ADDED
INSTABILITY THAT DEVELOPS THURSDAY WOULD POSE A THREAT FOR THUNDER.
NOT COMPLETELY SOLD ON THIS IDEA SO KEPT ONLY ISO THUNDER WORDING FOR
THE TIME BEING.

CONTEMPLATED A WIND ADVISORY AS DRY SLOT SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA
ALLOWING HIGH DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO OCCUR WITH 35 TO 40KT H85
WINDS. THIS WOULD NOT QUITE REACH CRITERIA BUT WILL LEAD TO GUSTY
CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION...CLOUD COVER FROM UPPER LOW WILL INHIBIT
DEEPER MIXING AND OFFSET SOME OF THE WIND SPEEDS.

DEROCHE

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS HAVE GIVEN WAY AT THE TERMINAL
SITES TO VARIABLE CIGS AND VISIBILITIES AS RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
ROLE THROUGH THE REGION. CURRENT THOUGHTS ARE THAT THE STORMS WILL
FINALLY BEGIN TO CLEAR THE TERMINAL SITES BY 03Z/18. TILL
THEN...CIGS...VISIBILITIES...AND WEATHER TYPE WILL BE VARYING
RAPIDLY AS RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH. LIFR
CONDITIONS MY OCCUR UNDER THE STRONGEST OF STORMS...BUT THE
LIKELIHOOD OF ANY SPECIFIC TERMINAL EXPERIENCING THESE CONDITIONS
FOR ORE THAN A BRIEF PERIOD LOOKS VERY SMALL. OTHERWISE...WATCH FOR
STRONG WINDS FROM THE WEST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM
THURSDAY MORNING.

CUTTER

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM THURSDAY FOR MOZ001-MOZ002-
    MOZ003-MOZ004-MOZ005-MOZ006-MOZ007-MOZ011-MOZ012-
    MOZ013-MOZ014-MOZ015-MOZ016-MOZ020-MOZ021-MOZ022-MOZ023-
    MOZ024-MOZ028-MOZ029-MOZ030-MOZ031-MOZ032-MOZ037-MOZ038-
    MOZ039-MOZ043-MOZ044-MOZ053.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM THURSDAY FOR KSZ025-KSZ057-KSZ060-
     KSZ102-KSZ103-KSZ104-KSZ105.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
116 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-181100-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-
PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-
RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-
CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
116 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY DURING THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THE STRENGTH OF
THE STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED WIND FIELDS...SOME OF THESE STORMS
MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN
BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ISOLATED
TORNADOES AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. AREAS
MOST THREATENED BY SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
50...JUST NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT IS STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL
MISSOURI THROUGH SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A DRYLINE ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF SUFFICIENT SUNSHINE IS
ACHIEVED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS...THEN THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...INCLUDING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL EXIST...MAINLY SOUTH OF AN OLATHE KANSAS TO SEDALIA
MISSOURI LINE.

OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH THE THREAT
FOR TRAINING STORMS COULD AFFECT A LARGE PART OF THE OUTLOOK AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WITH ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS AND HIGH RIVER
LEVELS...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND OR RIVER
FLOODING TO OCCUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED FOR AREAS IN LINN COUNTY KANSAS AND
BATES MISSOURI FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL
SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED FARTHER NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

CUTTER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
150 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

KSZ060-171930-
LINN-
150 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR LINN COUNTY UNTIL 230 PM CDT...

AT 147 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BLUE MOUND...OR
21 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MOUND CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

WITH THE ONSET OF THESE STORMS...BRIEF SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO
LOCALLY 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  BLUE MOUND BY 155 PM CDT.
  MOUND CITY BY 205 PM CDT.
  6 MILES NORTHWEST OF PLEASANTON BY 215 PM CDT.

PERSONS IN BATES COUNTY MISSOURI SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AS SEVERE WIND
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ONCE THIS LINE MOVES INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THAT COUNTY. WARM AND HUMID AIR HAD LIFTED NORTH INTO BATES
COUNTY...AND WILL ENABLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO REACH THE
SURFACE. A WARNING FOR BATES COUNTY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED IN THE
NEXT 20 TO 30 MINUTES.

BOOKBINDER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
229 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

MOZ053-172030-
BATES-
229 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR BATES COUNTY UNTIL 330 PM CDT...

AT 224 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM PLEASANTON TO
HUME...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS...ALONG WITH BRIEF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL THAT THIS LINE OF STORMS COULD STRENGTHEN...SO PERSONS IN
THE FOLLOWING AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  RICH HILL BY 245 PM CDT.
  BUTLER BY 255 PM CDT.
  ADRIAN BY 300 PM CDT.

THE TOWNS OF WORLAND...AMORET...FOSTER...AMSTERDAM...PASSAIC...
ROCKVILLE AND BALLARD ARE ALSO IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS.

BOOKBINDER