Flash Flood Warning 28, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
530 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2007

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO DEAL WITH HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL THROUGH
TODAY...AND TEMPERATURES.

UPPER LEVEL SHEAR ZONE CONTINUES TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FROM
OKLAHOMA...THROUGH EASTERN KANSAS...INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI. REGIONAL
RADARS INDICATED THE PRIMARY CIRCULATION WAS CENTERED OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK BOUNDARY WAS FOUND
ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN ARKANSAS. 850MB PROFILER DATA CONTINUED TO
DEPICT GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND
WESTERN MISSOURI.  WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHED FROM THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
BACK INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. HOURLY RADAR PRECIP ESTIMATES OF THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS INDICATES RATES BETWEEN A HALF AND ONE INCH
PER HOUR.

DECIDED TO KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH SIMPLE THIS MORNING AND EXTENDED THE
ENTIRE WATCH THROUGH 00Z. HOWEVER...I THINK THE BEST FORCING AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE WATCH
TODAY. DID NOT TRIM THE COUNTIES ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI YET DUE TO
THE ONGOING PRE-DAWN PRECIPITATION...BUT THESE LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY
BE DROPPED BY AFTERNOON.  AS SAID BEFORE...AT LEAST SOME WEAK TO
MODERATE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE AFFECTING
EAST-CENTRAL KANSAS AND WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
WITH PW VALUES APPROACHING 1.8 INCHES...SHOWERS WILL BE EFFICIENT
RAIN PRODUCERS. POPS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM CATEGORICAL ACROSS OUR
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...TO SLIGHT OR NO POPS OVER NORTHERN
MISSOURI...WHERE DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR HAS WORKED INTO THAT REGION.
TONIGHT MODELS HINT AT THE SHEAR AXIS/UPPER ENERGY SLOWLY SAGGING
SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL LIKELY END THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE EDGE OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT QPF AS
DEPICTED BY THE GFS AND NAM IS NOT VERY FAR SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA.  THEREFORE...TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE RE-EVALUATED TODAY TO
DETERMINE IF A FEW COUNTIES IN THE WATCH NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO
THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A CHALLENGE...WITH
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...I LOWERED HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES. THIS MAY STILL NOT BE LOW ENOUGH IF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
PERSISTS ALL DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR
NOW...GRIDS HAVE UPPER 70S TOWARD THE IOWA BORDER AND LOWER 70S
SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.

FOR SUNDAY...CONFINED SOME LINGERING CHANCE POPS TO A FEW COUNTIES
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AREAS. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD STAY DRY AS THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO DRIFT FURTHER SOUTH AND DRIER MID-LEVEL
AIR OVERSPREADS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL ONLY SLOWLY WARM AS
EAST/SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW PERSISTS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE
GRIDS.  NEXT FRONT STILL LOOKS TO AFFECT THE REGION DURING THE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WAS COVERED WELL BY
THE LOW CHANCE POPS ALREADY IN THE GRIDS. BEFORE THE FRONT
ARRIVES...HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

SAW

&&

.AVIATION...

RAIN HAS MOVED NORTH TO THE KANSAS CITY AREA. THE RAIN HAS MOVED
NORTH JUST ABOUT AS FAR AS IT WILL GO. THE CONCERN IS WHETHER THE
RAIN WILL SATURATE THE LOWER LEVELS WHILE DRIER AIR IN THE LOW
LEVELS CONTINUES TO ADVECT WEST INTO THE KANSAS CITY AREA. IFR CIGS
HAVE MOVED NORTH TO AS FAR AS OJC AND IXD WITH ANY PROGRESS LIKELY
TO BE SLOW. CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH THAT IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL
REACH MKC BUT NOT AS CONFIDENT AT MCI.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
PROGRESS. THE RAIN WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR TO IMPROVE ANY IFR CIGS TO MVFR TO VFR. FOR TONIGHT...KC
METRO AREA WILL BE ON THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE IFR CIGS. AT THE
PRESENT TIME...FEEL THREAT WILL STAY JUST WEST OF THE KC METRO.

DB

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR MOZ037-MOZ038-MOZ039-
     MOZ043-MOZ044-MOZ045-MOZ046-MOZ053-MOZ054.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR KSZ057-KSZ060-KSZ105.

WFO EAX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
559 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2007

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-011100-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-
PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-
RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-
CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
559 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS...NORTHEAST KANSAS...CENTRAL MISSOURI...NORTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI...NORTHEAST MISSOURI...NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND WEST
CENTRAL MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
LOCATIONS GENERALLY SOUTH OF A KANSAS CITY TO FAYETTE LINE THIS MORNING.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF TO ONE INCH ARE ANTICIPATED
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...PRIMARILY FROM EAST CENTRAL KANSAS INTO
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL 7 PM FOR
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...AS ANY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING.

RIVER FLOODING IS ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL KANSAS
ALONG WITH WESTERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI. THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
TODAY WILL AGGRAVATE THIS FLOODING SITUATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE THREAT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE. AN UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA BY LATE NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING THE OUTLOOK AREA A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER REPORTS OF
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND FLOODING WOULD BE APPRECIATED.

SAW