Flash Flood Warning 22, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1243 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2007

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT THU JUN 28 2007/

UPPER LOW BECOMING ELONGATED FROM CNTRL OKLAHOMA THROUGH WRN
MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING AS VORTICITY CENTERS BECOME SHEARED
THROUGH MEAN FLOW ALOFT. MOST NOTABLE VORT POCKET AND ASSOCIATED
ENHANCED LIFT NOW MOVING THROUGH SERN KANSAS DOES NOT APPEAR WELL
CAPTURED BY EITHER THE GFS OR NAM. H8 FRONT ALIGNED NEAR A EMP-IRK
LINE LOOKS TO REMAIN THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE MORE INTENSE
RAINFALL THIS MORNING...AND AM SKEPTICAL OF THE MORE NORTHWARD
PLACEMENT OF THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST QPF...PARTICULARLY ON THE 00Z GFS
SOLUTION...PROBABLY OWING TO THE LOWER RESOLUTION GRID SCALE. WILL
LET CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH RIDE FOR THE TIME BEING...HOWEVER
NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES WILL PROBABLY BE CUT OUT EARLY AS SLUG OF
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION OVER SWRN MISSOURI HEADING SOUTH OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR...AND NELY H8 WINDS CREATING A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED
DEFORMATION ZONE LIMITING THE NORTHWARD FLUX OF MOISTURE.

OTHERWISE...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL REMAINS A MAJOR CONCERN THIS
MORNING...AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. VERY NICE FETCH OF H8 MOISTURE (+15C DEWPOINTS) ON
SWLY 25KT WINDS TAPPING TOTAL PWATS AOA 2.0 INCHES TAKING AIM ON
CNTRL MISSOURI. FEEL THE MOST OPPORTUNE TIME FRAME FOR EXTREME
RAINFALL WILL BE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS H8 FLOW WILL BE MOST
PERPENDICULAR TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEFORE VEERING LATER IN THE
MORNING...AND ALLOWING THE ELEVATED FRONT TO SAG FURTHER SOUTH.
RADAR AND IN-SITU OBSERVATIONS INDICATE RAINFALL RATES APPROACHING
OR EXCEEDING 2 INCHES/HOUR IN THE MOST INTENSE CELLS. FFG ACROSS
CNTRL MISSOURI STILL REMAINS RATHER HIGH AT 2-3 INCHES OVER 3
HOURS...HOWEVER GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED RAINFALL RATES...WOULD NOT
TAKE MUCH MORE THAN AN HOUR OF INTENSE PRECIPITATION TO REACH THESE
VALUES. AT THIS TIME...AREAS MOST AT RISK APPEAR TO LIE ALONG A
MOUND CITY KANSAS TO BOONVILLE LINE.

EXPECTING A GENERAL CLEARING OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK NWLY
WINDS ALOFT AND MODEST DRYING OF THE LOW LEVELS OVERSPREADS THE
AREA. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE PERSISTENT TO BREAK OUT OF
THE AREA...AND HAVE TAILORED HIGH TEMPS TODAY TO REFLECT REDUCED
INSOLATION. BEYOND THIS EVENING...FEEL GFS CARRIES FAR TOO MUCH
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN ITS FORECAST MCS DEVELOPMENT IN S CNTRL
KANSAS. IN TURN...THIS BRINGS A VORT CENTER AND STRONGER UVV INTO
WESTERN MISSOURI. FEEL ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WILL REMAIN IN SW
MISSOURI FRIDAY...HOWEVER HAVE CARRIED SMALL CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST. ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH PERSISTENT WEAKNESS IN HEIGHT FIELDS OVER OKLAHOMA
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

21

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z/28 TAFS...SCT -SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE KANSAS
CITY METROPOLITAN TERMINAL SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...ALTHOUGH MKC WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT FOR RAIN.  SHARP
CEILING GRADIENT NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE AND OBS...MAINLY ALONG
700MB AXIS STRETCHING ACROSS THE STATE.  WILL STAY WITH PERIOD OF
VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON AS AXIS DRIFTS SOUTHWARD.  STRENGTHENING LLJ
WILL PUSH AXIS FURTHER NORTH THIS EVENING...SO LIFT LOWER MVFR
STRATUS DECK BACK NORTHWARD BY 04Z. MAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR
CIGS/VISIBILITIES FRI MORNING ALONG STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXPECTED TO DRIFT BACK NORTHWARD.

DUX

&&

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM FRIDAY FOR MOZ025-MOZ032-MOZ033
-MOZ038-MOZ039-MOZ040-MOZ043-MOZ044-MOZ045-MOZ046-MOZ053-MOZ054.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM FRIDAY FOR KSZ057-KSZ060.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
108 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2007

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-291100-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-
PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-
RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-
CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
108 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A LARGE SWATH OF HEAVY SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. SINCE THE ONSET OF THE
RAIN...AT LEAST TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A PAOLA KANSAS...TO LEXINGTON TO MACON MISSOURI LINE...WITH
POCKETS OF RAIN IN EXCESS OF 4 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF UP TO ONE
INCH WILL BE COMMON GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A PAOLA TO BOONVILLE
LINE THROUGH THIS EVENING. EXPECTED RAINFALL WILL COMBINE TO
AGGRAVATE AREA RIVERS ALREADY SWOLLEN BY PREVIOUS RAINFALL...LEADING
TO ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOODING AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING OF SMALLER
RIVERS AND STREAMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT PRODUCING ADDITIONAL FLOODING PROBLEMS DUE TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAIN MOVE SOUTH AND EAST
INTO THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING AN
END TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH REPORTS OF VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WOULD BE APPRECIATED TODAY.