Flash Flood Warning 63, NWS Des Moines, IA

000 
WGUS73 KDMX 200651
FFSDMX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
148 AM CDT MON AUG 20 2007

IAC023-201145-
BUTLER IA-
148 AM CDT MON AUG 20 2007

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 AM CDT FOR
BUTLER COUNTY...

AT 144 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING OVER THE 
WARNED AREA. LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTS NO NEW FLOODING PROBLEMS AND 
HEAVY RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. HOWEVER RUNOFF FROM STORMS MAY 
STILL PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE COUNTY. 

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SHELL ROCK...
GREENE...CLARKSVILLE AND ALLISON

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...COUNTRY ROADS...AS WELL AS FARMLAND ALONG THE
BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

LAT...LON 4292 9301 4291 9256 4278 9256 4277 9255
      4265 9255 4261 9302
TIME...MOT...LOC 0648Z 180DEG 0KT 4270 9283

$$

KINNEY

000 
WGUS73 KDMX 200755
FFSDMX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
250 AM CDT MON AUG 20 2007

IAC023-201145-
BUTLER IA-
250 AM CDT MON AUG 20 2007

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 AM CDT FOR
BUTLER COUNTY...

AT 247 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING OVER THE WARNED 
AREA. NO NEW REPORTS OF FLOODING WERE RECEIVED BY LAW 
ENFORCEMENT...HOWEVER THE FULL EXTENT OF THE FLOODING MAY NOT BE 
KNOWN UNTIL DAYBREAK. 

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SHELL ROCK...
GREENE...CLARKSVILLE AND ALLISON

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE IN THE 
WARNED AREA.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

LAT...LON 4292 9301 4291 9256 4278 9256 4277 9255
      4265 9255 4261 9302
TIME...MOT...LOC 0750Z 180DEG 0KT 4270 9283

$$

RUSSELL

000 
WGUS73 KDMX 200900
FFSDMX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
359 AM CDT MON AUG 20 2007

IAC023-200915-
BUTLER IA-
359 AM CDT MON AUG 20 2007

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR BUTLER COUNTY...

LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTS NO LINGERING FLOODING PROBLEMS ACROSS 
THE COUNTY. SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORM...ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH DAY BREAK...BUT THE THREAT FOR 
HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED.

LAT...LON 4292 9301 4291 9256 4278 9256 4277 9255
      4265 9255 4261 9302
TIME...MOT...LOC 0859Z 180DEG 0KT 4270 9283

$$

KINNEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR TAFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1150 PM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007

.SYNOPSIS...

NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WOBBLING NORTH ACROSS THE STATE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED WELL IN PLACE ONCE AGAIN.
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NORTH OF BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN
MN AND ARE HEADING EAST ALONG H850 FRONTAL ZONE. OVER SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...CONTINUE TO SEE INFLUX OF OLD ERIN
MOISTURE WITH AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING. MAINTAINING FLASH
FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
EXPECTED. SOUTHERN PORTIONS CAN TAKE A FEW INCHES WITH LESS IMPACT
EXPECTED THERE.

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT...

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTH INTO THE
STATE TNT. THOUGH THE GREATEST LIFT INITIALLY APPEARS TO BE ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE IA-MN BORDER...RUC MODEL HAS COME AROUND TO SHOW
INCREASING LIFT WITH STRONGER AND MORE NORTHERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT
OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND GRADUALLY SHIFTING
THE GREATER MOISTURE TRANSPORT MORE EAST NORTHEAST BY 03Z LATER THIS
EVENING. H700 WAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS SHOULD HELP KEEP PATTERN
PROGRESSIVE OVER THE NORTH THOUGH SOME STORMS EXPECTED TO FIRE INTO
THE WARM SECTOR THIS EVENING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT DRIFTS
SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. THIS MAY MITIGATE SOME HYDRO ISSUES OVER THE
NORTH BUT WILL HOLD ONTO FLASH FLOOD WATCH DUE TO FACT THAT LITTLE
IF ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TNT WILL CAUSE PROBLEMS. OLD ERIN STILL A
PROBLEM...AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND PLUME WILL CROSS THE SOUTHEAST
THIRD OF FORECAST AREA THROUGH 06Z...WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE THERE. GFS/NAM MUCH FARTHER EAST WITH TRACK THIS
EVENING...AND AM FOLLOWING RUC MORE CLOSELY. FFG RUNNING HIGHER
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WITH VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 2.5 TO 3.5 RAINFALL
SO WILL NOT EXTEND WATCH ANY FARTHER SOUTH ATTM THOUGH SOME TOTALS
MAY COME IN ABOVE TWO INCHES IN SOME CASES. H700 WAVE NORTH WILL
LIFT EAST AFTER 06Z AND RAINFALL SHOULD DIMINISH AT THAT TIME.
ACROSS THE SOUTH EXPECT THE RAIN TO DIMINISH BETWEEN THE 04 AND 08Z
TIMEFRAME AS OLD ERIN SPINS EAST BY MORNING. FOLLOWING THAT...FOG
MAY BECOME AN ISSUE IN THE WAKE OF THE THESE SYSTEMS AS WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT BY MORNING. WITH GO WITH AREAS OF FOG FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE FOR THE WORK WEEK AS THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY IS NEVER FORECAST TO LEAVE IOWA UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF CONVECTIVE WEATHER ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR...WITH HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES OVER NORTHERN IOWA WHERE SOME HEAVY RAINS HAVE ALREADY
FALLEN...MAKING LOCAL FLOODING THE BIGGEST THREAT FOR THE WEEK.
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH SHEAR AT TIMES FOR ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER. CONDITIONS SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN TROPICAL
WITH HIGHS CLOSE TO 90 AND DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 70S. TEMPERATURES
A BIT MORE PROBLEMATIC NORTH SINCE THERE IS A SLIM POSSIBILITY THAT
COOLER AND DRIER AIR COULD SLIP IN FOR A SHORT SPELL.

SPECIFICALLY...AFTER TONIGHT HEAVY RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE MOST
LIKELY WITH CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY
EVENING AND MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA...WITH REPEAT ACTION
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SAME AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. RETURN FLOW OF COPIOUS
MOISTURE AND THETA-E ADVECTION IS RAPID ACROSS THIS AREA AS A SERIES
OF SHORT WAVES COMES OUT IN THE WLY FLOW ALOFT. DIFFICULT TO SEE
ENOUGH OF A BREAK IN THIS PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SO
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
LONGER RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT A RIDGE WILL BUILD SOMEWHAT TO THE
WEST PUSHING A SURFACE HIGH INTO IOWA AND THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHICH SHOULD END THE PERSISTENT RAIN CHANCES
AND DROP TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS BACK TO COMFORTABLE LEVELS.

ALL OF THESE RAIN CHANCES LEAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL FLASH
FLOOD WATCHES AND POSSIBLE RIVER FLOODING EVENTUALLY FOR THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. CEDAR RIVER IS NOW EXPECTED TO REACH
BANK FULL...AND COULD GO HIGHER IF RAINS TARGET THE SAME AREAS FOR A
COUPLE OF DAYS IN A ROW.

.AVIATION...20/06Z

STATIONARY BOUNDARY MEANDERS THROUGH THE STATE.  STORMS WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL LEAVING VERY MOIST AIRMASS WITH FOG LIKELY.  FREQUENT IFR
CONDITIONS NORTHERN HALF OF IOWA THROUGH MORNING.  MVFR CLOUDS
AROUND 3000 FEET TODAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 4 AM
MONDAY IAZ004>007-IA015>017-IA023>028-IA035>039-IA049>050-

&&

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...JUNGBLUTH
AVIATION...FORSTER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1115 PM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-035>039-047>050-201100-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-WEBSTER-
HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-
1115 PM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE
STORMS WILL CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE 1
TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY FROM MONDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE.
TIMING AND SPECIFIC THREAT WILL BE DEFINED IN LATER FORECASTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER REPORTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BE HELPFUL.

IAZ033-034-044>046-057>062-070>075-081>086-092>097-201100-
SAC-CALHOUN-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-
JASPER-POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-
UNION-CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-
APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
1115 PM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

MAINLY NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL
RANGING FROM ONE TO THREE INCHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY FROM MONDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE.
TIMING AND SPECIFIC THREAT WILL BE DEFINED IN LATER FORECASTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
907 PM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     HEAVY RAIN       PILOT MOUND             42.16N 94.02W
08/19/2007  M3.00 INCH       BOONE              IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MEASURED IN 1 HOUR.

&&

MRUSSELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
914 PM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0908 PM     HEAVY RAIN       N PILOT MOUND           42.17N 94.02W
08/19/2007  M3.75 INCH       BOONE              IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NWS TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTS 3.75 INCHES IN 1.5 HOURS.

&&

CCOGIL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1109 PM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0542 PM     FLASH FLOOD      DUNKERTON               42.57N 92.16W
08/19/2007                   BLACK HAWK         IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            BRIDGE WASHED OUT IN THE 7700 BLOCK OF EAST BIG ROCK ROAD
            NEAR DUNKERTON. TIME IS TIME OF REPORT.

&&

RK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1110 PM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     FLASH FLOOD      DUNKERTON               42.57N 92.16W
08/19/2007                   BLACK HAWK         IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROAD WASHED OUT IN THE 3400 BLCOK OF NORTH PILOT GROVE
            NEAR DUNKERTON. TIME IS TIME OF REPORT.

&&

RK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1116 PM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1035 PM     FLASH FLOOD      PILOT MOUND             42.16N 94.02W
08/19/2007                   BOONE              IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL GRAVEL AND HARD TOP ROADS CLOSED OVER NORTHERN
            BOONE COUNTY...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF BOONE.

&&

BF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1224 AM CDT MON AUG 20 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1150 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MOORLAND                42.44N 94.29W
08/19/2007                   WEBSTER            IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER OVER THE ROAD ON HIGHWAY C66 BETWEEN HIGHWAY 169
            AND CLARE. EMERGENCY PERSONNEL HAVING TROUBLE GETTING
            AROUND FORT DODGE DUE TO FLOODED ROADS.

&&

BF