Alert archive / Pennsylvania / Winter Storm Warnings in 2007

Winter Storm Warning 2, NWS State College, PA

February 24, 200728 counties in Pennsylvania

NWS State College, PA issued this winter storm warning at Feb 24, 2007, 3:10 PM EST for 28 counties in Pennsylvania. It took effect at Feb 25, 2007, 5:00 AM EST. It was in force for 10 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Feb 24, 2007, 3:10 PM EST (20:10 UTC)
In effect from
Feb 25, 2007, 5:00 AM EST
Expired
Feb 25, 2007, 3:17 PM EST
In force
10 hr
Issued by
NWS State College, PA
All 28 counties

Adams County, PA, Bedford County, PA, Blair County, PA, Cambria County, PA, Cameron County, PA, Centre County, PA, Clearfield County, PA, Clinton County, PA, Columbia County, PA, Cumberland County, PA, Dauphin County, PA, Elk County, PA, Franklin County, PA, Fulton County, PA, Huntingdon County, PA, Juniata County, PA, Lancaster County, PA, Lebanon County, PA, Lycoming County, PA, Mifflin County, PA, Montour County, PA, Northumberland County, PA, Perry County, PA, Schuylkill County, PA, Snyder County, PA, Somerset County, PA, Union County, PA, York County, PA

The radar

The State College radar (KCCX), 58 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:12 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Washington/Dulle, VA (KIAD), launched 12:00Z, 8.2 hours before the alert went out and 181 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Washington/Dulle, VA at 12:00Z on 2007-02-24Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Washington/Dulle, VA at 12:00Z on 2007-02-24The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 29 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
2093 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
79 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
29 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
113 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WWUS41 KCTP 242010
WSWCTP

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
310 PM EST SAT FEB 24 2007

PAZ010>012-017>019-024>028-033>036-045-250415-
/O.UPG.KCTP.WS.A.0004.070225T1000Z-070226T0500Z/
/O.NEW.KCTP.WS.W.0002.070225T1000Z-070226T0500Z/
ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-NORTHERN CENTRE-
SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-SOMERSET-
BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-
310 PM EST SAT FEB 24 2007

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT
EST SUNDAY NIGHT...
...WINTER STORM WATCH NO LONGER IN EFFECT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT
EST SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY.
WARM MOIST AIR STREAMING NORTH AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL BE LIFTED
OVER THE THICK LAYER OF COLD AIR IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA RESULTING IN A MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE
REGION.

LIGHT SNOW...SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN WILL SPREAD OVER THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS SHORTLY BEFORE DAYBREAK...THEN ADVANCE NORTHEAST DURING
THE LATE MORNING. 

A LAYER OF MILDER AIR SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET ABOVE GROUND WILL
STREAM NORTH...AND CAUSE THE SNOW TO POSSIBLY MIX WITH OR CHANGE
TO SLEET.

2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET...FOLLOWED BY A LAYER OF FREEZING 
RAIN UP TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH THICK IS LIKELY ACROSS THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND COUNTIES NEAR THE MARYLAND BORDER.

FURTHER NORTH NEAR INTERSTATE 80...3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW WILL
FALL DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...TOPPED BY A
LAYER OF SLEET AND PERHAPS A THIN LAYER OF FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY
EVENING AS THE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF.

THERE STILL IS A LOWER PROBABILITY THAT THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AS MAINLY SNOW. IN THIS CASE...SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE HIGHER BETWEEN ROUTE 22 AND INTERSTATE
80...IN THE 5 TO 9 INCH RANGE BEFORE ANY CHANGEOVER TO LIGHTER
SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN OCCURS LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

IF ALL SNOW OCCURS FOR SEVERAL HOURS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...IT COULD
FALL AT A RATE OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR. GREATLY REDUCING
VISIBILITY TO ONE HALF OF A MILE OR LESS AND CAUSING EXTREMELY
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW OR ICE
ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. ANY TRAVEL IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.
THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS IN THE WARNED AREA ARE ADVISED TO CHOOSE
AN ALTERNATIVE ROUTE...OR SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION IF TRAVEL IS
UNAVOIDABLE. CARRY EXTRA SUPPLIES...INCLUDING BLANKETS...FOOD AND
A CELLULAR PHONE...IN CASE YOUR CAR BECOMES STRANDED.

$$

PAZ041-046-049>053-056>059-063>066-250415-
/O.UPG.KCTP.WS.A.0004.070225T1400Z-070226T0500Z/
/O.NEW.KCTP.WS.W.0002.070225T1400Z-070226T0500Z/
NORTHERN LYCOMING-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-
CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
310 PM EST SAT FEB 24 2007

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT
EST SUNDAY NIGHT...
...WINTER STORM WATCH NO LONGER IN EFFECT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT
EST SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY.
WARM MOIST AIR STREAMING NORTH AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL BE LIFTED
OVER THE THICK LAYER OF COLD AIR IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA RESULTING IN A MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE
REGION.

LIGHT SNOW...SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS SUNDAY.

A LAYER OF MILDER AIR SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET ABOVE GROUND WILL
STREAM NORTH...AND CAUSE THE SNOW TO POSSIBLY MIX WITH OR CHANGE
TO SLEET.

1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET...FOLLOWED BY A LAYER OF FREEZING
RAIN UP TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH THICK IS LIKELY ACROSS THE
THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES OF PENNSYLVANIA.

FURTHER NORTH NEAR INTERSTATE 80...3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW OF WILL
FALL DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...TOPPED BY A
LAYER OF SLEET AND PERHAPS A THIN LAYER OF FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY
EVENING AS THE PRECIPITATION LIGHTENS UP.

THERE STILL IS A LOWER PROBABILITY THAT THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AS MAINLY SNOW. IN THIS CASE... SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE HIGHER BETWEEN ROUTE 22 AND INTERSTATE 80...
IN THE 5 TO 9 INCH RANGE BEFORE ANY CHANGEOVER TO LIGHTER SLEET
OR FREEZING RAIN OCCURS LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

IF ALL SNOW OCCURS FOR SEVERAL HOURS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...IT COULD
FALL AT A RATE OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR. GREATLY REDUCING
VISIBILITY TO ONE HALF OF A MILE OR LESS AND CAUSING EXTREMELY
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW OR ICE
ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. ANY TRAVEL IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.
THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS IN THE WARNED AREA ARE ADVISED TO CHOOSE
AN ALTERNATIVE ROUTE...OR SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION IF TRAVEL IS
UNAVOIDABLE. CARRY EXTRA SUPPLIES...INCLUDING BLANKETS...FOOD AND
A CELLULAR PHONE...IN CASE YOUR CAR BECOMES STRANDED.

$$

PAZ004>006-037-042-250415-
/O.NEW.KCTP.WW.Y.0003.070225T1700Z-070226T0500Z/
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-TIOGA-SULLIVAN-
310 PM EST SAT FEB 24 2007

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM SUNDAY TO
MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM SUNDAY TO
MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT. 

LIGHT SNOW...OR SLEET WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE REGION AROUND NOON
SUNDAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CHANGE QUICKLY TO
SNOW...WHICH WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW OF WILL FALL BY 8 PM SUNDAY 
AND COULD BE TOPPED BY A THIN LAYER OF SLEET AND PERHAPS A THIN
LAYER OF FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY EVENING AS THE PRECIPITATION
LIGHTENS UP.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE
ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES...WHERE SLIPPERY
SPOTS DEVELOP FIRST.

$$


LAMBERT/LACORTE/TYBURSKI
4 follow-up statements
000 
WWUS41 KCTP 250257
WSWCTP

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
957 PM EST SAT FEB 24 2007

PAZ010>012-017>019-024>028-033>036-045-251500-
/O.CON.KCTP.WS.W.0002.070225T1000Z-070226T0500Z/
ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-NORTHERN CENTRE-
SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-SOMERSET-
BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-
957 PM EST SAT FEB 24 2007

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM SUNDAY TO
MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM SUNDAY TO
MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT. 

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY.
WARM MOIST AIR STREAMING NORTH AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL BE LIFTED
OVER THE THICK LAYER OF COLD AIR IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA RESULTING IN A MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE
REGION.

LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AROUND
DAYBREAK...THEN CONTINUE NORTHEAST DURING THE LATE MORNING.

A LAYER OF MILDER AIR ALOFT WILL STREAM NORTH...AND CAUSE THE
SNOW TO POSSIBLY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SLEET. FREEZING RAIN COULD
FURTHER COMPLICATE THE FORECAST.

AT THIS TIME EXPECT A WINTRY MIX OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW AND
SLEET TO FALL ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND COUNTIES NEAR THE
MARYLAND BORDER. THIS COULD BE TOPPED BY A LAYER OF FREEZING RAIN
UP TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH THICK.

FURTHER NORTH NEAR INTERSTATE 80...3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED...ALSO MIXED WITH SOME SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN.

THE AMOUNT OF WARM AIR THAT MOVES IN ALOFT...AND THE AMOUNTS OF
SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN THAT RESULT ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. IF MOSTLY
SNOW OCCURS...ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE AS HIGH AS 5 TO 9 INCHES BEFORE
PRECIPITATION TAPERS TO LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE SUNDAY
NIGHT. 

IN ADDITION...IF PRECIPITATION FALLS AS MAINLY SNOW...IT COULD
FALL AT A RATE OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR AT THE HEIGHT OF THE
STORM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THIS WOULD GREATLY
REDUCE VISIBILITY AND CAUSE EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW OR ICE
ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. ANY TRAVEL IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.
THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS IN THE WARNED AREA ARE ADVISED TO CHOOSE
AN ALTERNATIVE ROUTE...OR SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION IF TRAVEL IS
UNAVOIDABLE. CARRY EXTRA SUPPLIES...INCLUDING BLANKETS...FOOD AND
A CELLULAR PHONE...IN CASE YOUR CAR BECOMES STRANDED.

$$

PAZ041-046-049>053-056>059-063>066-251500-
/O.CON.KCTP.WS.W.0002.070225T1400Z-070226T0500Z/
NORTHERN LYCOMING-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-
CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
957 PM EST SAT FEB 24 2007

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO
MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO
MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT. 

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY.
WARM MOIST AIR STREAMING NORTH AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL BE LIFTED
OVER THE THICK LAYER OF COLD AIR IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA RESULTING IN A MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE
REGION.

LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS SUNDAY.

A LAYER OF MILDER AIR ALOFT WILL STREAM NORTH...AND CAUSE THE
SNOW TO POSSIBLY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

AT THIS TIME EXPECT A WINTRY MIX OF AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW AND
SLEET...FOLLOWED BY A LAYER OF FREEZING RAIN UP TO ONE QUARTER OF
AN INCH THICK ACROSS THE THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES OF
PENNSYLVANIA.

FURTHER NORTH NEAR INTERSTATE 80...2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED...MIXED WITH SLEET AND PERHAPS TOPPED BY A THIN LAYER OF
FREEZING RAIN.

THE AMOUNT OF WARM AIR THAT MOVES IN ALOFT...AND THE AMOUNTS OF
SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN THAT RESULT ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. IF MOSTLY
SNOW OCCURS...ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE AS HIGH AS 5 TO 9 INCHES BEFORE
PRECIPITATION TAPERS TO LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE SUNDAY
NIGHT. 

IN ADDITION...IF PRECIPITATION FALLS AS MAINLY SNOW...IT COULD
FALL AT A RATE OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR AT THE HEIGHT OF THE
STORM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THIS WOULD GREATLY
REDUCE VISIBILITY AND CAUSE EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW OR ICE
ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. ANY TRAVEL IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.
THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS IN THE WARNED AREA ARE ADVISED TO CHOOSE
AN ALTERNATIVE ROUTE...OR SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION IF TRAVEL IS
UNAVOIDABLE. CARRY EXTRA SUPPLIES...INCLUDING BLANKETS...FOOD AND
A CELLULAR PHONE...IN CASE YOUR CAR BECOMES STRANDED.

$$

PAZ004>006-037-042-251500-
/O.CON.KCTP.WW.Y.0003.070225T1700Z-070226T0500Z/
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-TIOGA-SULLIVAN-
957 PM EST SAT FEB 24 2007

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM SUNDAY TO
MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM SUNDAY TO
MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT. 

SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON SUNDAY. AS MILDER AIR ALOFT SPREADS NORTHWARD...THE SNOW
SHOULD MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SLEET DURING THE AFTERNOON. 

3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET CAN BE EXPECTED BEFORE
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF TO SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE
SUNDAY NIGHT.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE
ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES...WHERE SLIPPERY
SPOTS DEVELOP FIRST.

$$

LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
000 
WWUS41 KCTP 250905
WSWCTP

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
405 AM EST SUN FEB 25 2007

PAZ010>012-017>019-024>028-033>036-045-251715-
/O.CON.KCTP.WS.W.0002.070225T1000Z-070226T0500Z/
ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-NORTHERN CENTRE-
SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-SOMERSET-
BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-
405 AM EST SUN FEB 25 2007

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT. 

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM NEAR KANSAS CITY EARLY THIS MORNING TO
NEAR CHICAGO THIS EVENING. WARM...MOIST AIR STREAMING NORTH AHEAD
OF THIS LOW WILL BE LIFTED OVER A THICK LAYER OF COLD AIR IN PLACE
ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA RESULTING IN A MIX OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION FOR THE REGION.

SNOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. AFTER IT BEGINS...A LAYER OF MILDER AIR
ALOFT WILL STREAM NORTH...AND CAUSE THE SNOW TO MIX WITH AND
CHANGE TO SLEET...AND THEN TO FREEZING RAIN IN MANY PLACES.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT THREAT TODAY IS FOR A THICK ACCUMULATION OF
ICE FROM FREEZING RAIN IN AREAS ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF ROUTE
22...WITH ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLY BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF OF
AN INCH. THICK ICE LIKE THIS COULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD POWER
OUTAGES...AND HALT TRAVEL.

A BIT FURTHER NORTH...A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET WILL AMOUNT TO 2 TO
4 INCHES IN MANY LOCATIONS IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...BUT THE HEAVY SLEET...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS FROM FREEZING RAIN WILL MAKE TRAVEL
VERY DANGEROUS...AND COULD ALSO BRING DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF TO LIGHT SNOW AND PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE TONIGHT. 

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW OR ICE
ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. ANY TRAVEL IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.
THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS IN THE WARNED AREA ARE ADVISED TO CHOOSE
AN ALTERNATIVE ROUTE...OR SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION IF TRAVEL IS
UNAVOIDABLE. CARRY EXTRA SUPPLIES...INCLUDING BLANKETS...FOOD AND
A CELLULAR PHONE...IN CASE YOUR CAR BECOMES STRANDED.

$$

PAZ041-046-049>053-056>059-063>066-251715-
/O.CON.KCTP.WS.W.0002.070225T1400Z-070226T0500Z/
NORTHERN LYCOMING-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-
CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
405 AM EST SUN FEB 25 2007

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING
TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING
TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT. 

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM NEAR KANSAS CITY EARLY THIS MORNING TO
NEAR CHICAGO THIS EVENING. WARM...MOIST AIR STREAMING NORTH AHEAD
OF THIS LOW WILL BE LIFTED OVER A THICK LAYER OF COLD AIR IN PLACE
ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA RESULTING IN A MIXED BAG OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE REGION.

SNOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST LATE THIS MORNING. AFTER IT BEGINS...A LAYER OF MILDER
AIR ALOFT WILL STREAM NORTH...AND CAUSE THE SNOW TO MIX WITH AND
CHANGE TO SLEET...AND THEN TO FREEZING RAIN IN MANY PLACES.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT THREAT TODAY IS FOR A THICK ACCUMULATION OF
ICE FROM FREEZING RAIN IN AREAS ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF ROUTE
22 AND I-81...WITH ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLY OVER A QUARTER OF AN
INCH. THICK ICE LIKE THIS COULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD POWER
OUTAGES...AND HALT TRAVEL.

A BIT FURTHER NORTH...GENERALLY FROM HARRISBURG AND POTTSVILLE
NORTH TO WILLIAMSPORT...THE MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET WILL AMOUNT TO
2 TO 5 INCHES IN MANY LOCATIONS...BUT THE HEAVY SLEET...AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS FROM FREEZING RAIN
WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY DANGEROUS...AND COULD ALSO BRING DOWN TREES
AND POWER LINES.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF TO LIGHT SNOW AND PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE TONIGHT. 

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW OR ICE
ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. ANY TRAVEL IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.
THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS IN THE WARNED AREA ARE ADVISED TO CHOOSE
AN ALTERNATIVE ROUTE...OR SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION IF TRAVEL IS
UNAVOIDABLE. CARRY EXTRA SUPPLIES...INCLUDING BLANKETS...FOOD AND
A CELLULAR PHONE...IN CASE YOUR CAR BECOMES STRANDED.

$$

PAZ004>006-037-042-251715-
/O.CON.KCTP.WW.Y.0003.070225T1700Z-070226T0500Z/
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-TIOGA-SULLIVAN-
405 AM EST SUN FEB 25 2007

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO
MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO
MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT. 

SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON TODAY. AS SOME MILDER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN...THE SNOW
SHOULD MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SLEET DURING THE AFTERNOON. A LITTLE
FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS WELL.

2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET CAN BE EXPECTED BEFORE
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF TO SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE
LATER TONIGHT.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE
ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES...WHERE SLIPPERY
SPOTS DEVELOP FIRST.

$$

DANGELO
000 
WWUS41 KCTP 251644
WSWCTP

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1144 AM EST SUN FEB 25 2007

PAZ010>012-017>019-024>028-033>036-041-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066-260045-
/O.CON.KCTP.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-070226T0500Z/
ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-NORTHERN CENTRE-
SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-SOMERSET-
BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-NORTHERN LYCOMING-SOUTHERN CLINTON-
SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-
PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
1144 AM EST SUN FEB 25 2007

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT. 

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWESTERN STATES TODAY WILL BECOME 
CENTERED NEAR CHICAGO THIS EVENING. WARM...MOIST AIR STREAMING
NORTH AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL BE LIFTED OVER A THICK LAYER OF COLD
AIR IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA RESULTING IN SNOW OR
SLEET ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND MIDDLE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY
REGION OF PENNSYLVANIA...WITH WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION FOR
SOUTHERN TIER AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

SNOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
SUSQUEHANNA RIVER VALLEY FROM SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON
HOURS. AFTER IT BEGINS...A LAYER OF MILDER AIR ALOFT WILL STREAM
NORTH...AND CAUSE THE SNOW TO MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SLEET...AND
THEN TO FREEZING RAIN IN MANY PLACES OF SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT THREAT TODAY IS FOR A THICK ACCUMULATION OF
ICE FROM FREEZING RAIN IN AREAS ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF ROUTE
22...WITH ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLY BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF OF
AN INCH. THICK ICE LIKE THIS COULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD POWER
OUTAGES...AND HALT TRAVEL.

A BIT FURTHER NORTH...A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET WILL AMOUNT TO 2 TO
4 INCHES BY LATE THIS EVENING IN MANY LOCATIONS IN THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW OR SLEET FOLLOWED
BY A THIN COATING OF ICE FROM FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL OCCUR LATER
TONIGHT.

THE HEAVIEST SNOW AMOUNTS OF 5 OR 6 INCHES MAY FALL ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF STATE COLLEGE...AND
ACROSS SCHUYLKILL COUNTY.

THE SNOW...SLEET...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS FROM FREEZING RAIN WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY
DANGEROUS...AND COULD ALSO BRING DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF TO LIGHT SNOW AND PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW OR ICE
ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. ANY TRAVEL IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.
THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS IN THE WARNED AREA ARE ADVISED TO CHOOSE
AN ALTERNATIVE ROUTE...OR SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION IF TRAVEL IS
UNAVOIDABLE. CARRY EXTRA SUPPLIES...INCLUDING BLANKETS...FOOD AND
A CELLULAR PHONE...IN CASE YOUR CAR BECOMES STRANDED.

$$

PAZ004>006-037-042-260045-
/O.CON.KCTP.WW.Y.0003.070225T1700Z-070226T0500Z/
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-TIOGA-SULLIVAN-
1144 AM EST SUN FEB 25 2007

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT. 

LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON
HOURS. AS SOME MILDER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN...THE SNOW SHOULD MIX
WITH OR CHANGE TO SLEET DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON NEAR AND TO THE
WEST OF ROUTE 2 19. A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS WELL
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS.

2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET CAN BE EXPECTED BY LATE THIS EVENING.
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS OF MONDAY BRINGING AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
SNOW. AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS BRINGING A THIN LAYER OF ICE. 

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE
ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES...WHERE SLIPPERY
SPOTS DEVELOP FIRST.

$$

LAMBERT
000 
WWUS41 KCTP 252017
WSWCTP

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
317 PM EST SUN FEB 25 2007

PAZ010>012-017>019-024>028-033>036-041-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066-260430-
/O.CAN.KCTP.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-070226T0500Z/
/O.EXB.KCTP.WW.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-070226T1200Z/
ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-NORTHERN CENTRE-
SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-SOMERSET-
BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-NORTHERN LYCOMING-SOUTHERN CLINTON-
SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-
PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
317 PM EST SUN FEB 25 2007

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY. THE
WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN 
PENNSYLVANIA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR
CHICAGO MOVES SLOWLY EAST. 

OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL FALL ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES OF PENNSYLVANIA...AND THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS WHERE ICE ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT COULD RANGE FROM ONE
TENTH...TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. 

ELSEWHERE...SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY ADD UP TO AN ADDITONAL
1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH UP TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF SCHUYLKILL COUNTY.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE
ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES...WHERE SLIPPERY
SPOTS DEVELOP FIRST.

$$

PAZ004>006-037-042-260430-
/O.EXT.KCTP.WW.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-070226T1200Z/
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-TIOGA-SULLIVAN-
317 PM EST SUN FEB 25 2007

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY...

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
MONDAY. 

PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW...MIXED WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AT
TIMES FROM BRADFORD WEST THROUGH WARREN COUNTY...WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR CHICAGO
MOVES SLOWLY EAST.

1 TO 3 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW AND SLEET CAN BE EXPECTED BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MAY PRODUCE A THIN
COATING OF ICE AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS WARREN AND
WESTERN MCKEAN COUNTIES.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE
ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES...WHERE SLIPPERY
SPOTS DEVELOP FIRST.

$$

LAMBERT/TYBURSKI/ LA CORTE

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this winter storm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS State College, PA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this winter storm warning went out at Feb 24, 11:09 AM EST, 4 hours 1 minute earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 24, 11:09 AM EST, 4 hours 1 minute before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1109 AM EST SAT FEB 24 2007

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO SWRN
PENN LATE THIS MORNING...WHILE A NEARLY NORTH/SOUTH UPPER RIDGE
WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH A THICK SHIELD OF MID/HIGH
CLOUDS ALONG AND JUST TO THE WEST OF ITS AXIS.

NEAR PERFECTLY SUNNY...AZURE BLUE SKIES AND DIMINISHING NW WIND
WILL OCCUR THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY...BEFORE THE WIND BECOMES LIGHT
NE TO EAST OVERNIGHT AND CLOUDS THICKEN UP FROM THE WEST.

WE STILL NOTE THE CONSISTENT ONSET TIMING OF MIXED PRECIP VIA THE
LATEST 09Z SREF...ACROSS THE SW MTNS AROUND 10Z SUNDAY...THEN ALONG
A LINE FROM KBFD TO KUNV AND KMDT BETWEEN 14Z AND 17Z. THIS
CONTINUES TO MESH NICELY WITH THE TIMING OF PRECIP ONSET CONTAINED IN
OUR CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCHES FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
ACROSS ALL BUT THE NRN TIER COUNTIES OF PENN.

EXCELLENT EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION BY MY PREDECESSOR ON SHIFT
HIGHLIGHTS MANY OF THE DETAILS THE AREAS OF POTENTIALLY HEAVIER
SNOW FOR SUNDAY /ACROSS A SLIVER OF COUNTIES IN THE CENTRAL PENN
MTNS AND SUSQ VALLEY/...WITH MAINLY MIXED PRECIP ACROSS THE SRN
ZONES.

09Z SREF CONTINUES RIGHT IN LINE WITH THE 03Z RUN...AND THE 00Z/06Z
MREF AND CANADIAN EPS...BY CARRYING SLEET AS THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE
FOR MOST FCST POINTS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

THE BEST ARGUMENT FOR HEAVY SNOW IS CONTAINED WITHIN THE PAST 3
OPERATIONAL NAM RUNS /00Z...06Z...AND THE FRESH 12Z DATA/. THIS
SINGLE MODEL RESPONDS MORE /THAN THE MEAN ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS/ TO THE
INTENSE...SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF STRONG UVVEL AND LOW/MID LVL WARM
ADVECTION AT THE NOSE OF A 50-60 KT 850 HPA SOUTHERLY JET...AND
TIPS ITS LLVL WET BULB PROFILE TO A FEW DEG BELOW FREEZING...
SUPPORTING HEAVY SNOWFALL.

SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR COULD FALL WITHIN A 3-6 HOUR
WINDOW DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL PENN AND THE ENTIRE SUSQ VALLEY BASED ON THIS LONE MODEL
OUTLIER. A PURE...10 TO 1 SNOW WATER RATIO /TYPICAL OF WARM
ADVECTION SNOW/ OFF THE NAM WOULD MEAN 5-9 INCHES OF SNOW FOR
MOST OF CENTRAL PENN AND THE ENTIRE SUSQ VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

OTHERWISE...MEAN LIQ EQUIVALENT FOR SLEET VIA THE 03/09Z SREFS IS
0.30-0.40 ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PENN AND PRACTICALLY THE ENTIRE
WINTER STORM WATCH AREA. A ROUGH...3 TO 1 SLEET/WATER RATIO WOULD
MEAN A SOLID INCH OR MORE OF SLEET LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

A KEY ELEMENT IN THE PRECIP TYPE MAY REST ON THE DEPTH OF THE VERY
DRY AIR...AND DEGREE OF RADIATIONAL COOLING EARLY TONIGHT.
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND SREFS HAVE TRENDED /IF ANYTHING/ A FEW HOURS
LATER WITH THE THICKER CLOUDS AND PRECIP ONSET ACROSS CENTRAL PENN
AND THE SUSQ VALLEY...TO THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

FOR THE LATE MORNING UPDATE TO THE WINTER STORM WATCHES...WILL BE
EMPHASIZING THE PRECIP RATES...AND OUTSIDE SHOT AT 1-2 INCH/HR
SNOWFALL RATES IN MANY AREAS. WILL ALSO ISSUE A PHLSPSCTP FOR THE
LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET
ACROSS THE NORTH. THERE...A 3RD PERIOD WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
MAY BE ISSUED WITH THE LATE AFTERNOON ZONE PACKAGE...WHILE WATCHES
ARE UPGRADED TO WINTER STORM WARNINGS ELSEWHERE AFTER DIGESTING
THE 12Z GFS AND MREF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 406 AM EST SAT FEB 24 2007/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
QUIET WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM ACROSS CENTRAL PA WITH SFC HIGH
WEDGED FROM NW TO SE FROM THE CENTRAL GLAKS TO THE SOUTHEAST
ATLANTIC COAST PROVIDING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE SHARP 5H RIDGE AXIS OVER
THE WESTERN GLAKS THIS MORNING MAY EVENTUALLY FILTER THE SUN OVER
WESTERN SECTIONS AS THE DAY WEARS ON...AS THE 5H RIDGE AXIS
PROPOGATES INTO THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.

SFC RIDGE WILL PROPOGATE SLIGHTLY EASTWARD THIS EVENING AS UPPER
RIDGE AXIS REACHES THE OH/PA BORDER BY 06Z. RAPID MOISTURE RETURN
WEST OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS THIS MORNING OVER WI...WITH HEAVY
SNOW FALLING WITHIN THE AXIS PRESENTLY. WILL LIKELY SEE A SIMILAR
RAPID MOISTENING TONIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION BREAKING OUT NEAR AND
JUST WEST OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVERNIGHT AS THE WARM ADVECTION
COMMENCES IN EARNEST. CLOSE EXAMINATION OF AVAILABLE MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATES PRELIMINARY PRECIPITATION TYPES
MAINLY SNOW WITH SOME SLEET MIXED IN MAINLY SOUTH OF THE TURNPIKE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PRECIPITATION WILL COMMENCE EASTWARD THROUGHOUT CENTRAL PA SUNDAY
MORNING. GFS/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MAINLY SNOW PROFILES
INITIALLY...MIXED WITH SLEET GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF
LEWISTOWN. 00Z RUN WAS DECIDEDLY COLDER WITH LESS OF A FREEZING
RAIN THREAT INDICATED. SREFS DEPICT A BIMODAL PRECIPITATION
DISTRIBUTION WITH SEVERAL MEMBERS CLUSTERING AROUND .4-.5 W.E.
AND REMAINING MEMBERS CLUSTERING AROUND .8 TO .9 WATER EQUIVS FOR
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PA. AMOUNT OF LIQUID THAT FALLS WILL BE
CRITICAL FROM A WINTER STORM VERIFICATION STANDPOINT...IN ADDITION
TO HOW MUCH SLEET IS MIXED WITH THE SNOW. AT THIS TIME...THINK
THAT BEST CHANCES FOR 6 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW IS IN A FAIRLY
NARROW CORRIDOR FROM BLAIR AND CENTRE COUNTIES ENE THROUGH
SOUTHERN LYCOMING AND COLUMBIA COUNTIES. SOUTH OF THESE AREAS MORE
SLEET WILL BE MIXED IN...AND POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN. FURTHER SOUTH...
DESPITE THE COLDER 00Z RUN...FZRA POTENTIAL REMAINS AND THUS WILL
HOLD ONTO THE EXISTING WATCHES. AGAIN...TOTAL W.E. FROM THIS STORM
WILL BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR AND BIMODAL DISTRIBUTION TO SREFS
MAKES THIS A DIFFICULT CALL. MREFS ARE MOSTLY CLUSTERED AROUND THE
5 TO .6 W.E. MARK...WHICH IS PERFECTLY MARGINAL. ALL GUIDANCE
POINTS TO CONTINUING CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCHES...WHILE
EXPANDING SLIGHTLY NORTH TO INCLUDE ELK...CAMERON...AND LYCOMING
COUNTIES FOR POTENTIAL 6 SNOW/SLEET ACCUM.

SECONDARY COASTAL DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL
ROB OUR REGION OF THE BEST MOISTURE BY SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT PARENT
LOW CIRCULATION STILL PROGGED TO MEANDER EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN
GLAKS INTO MONDAY...WITH DEFORMATION BETWEEN 2NDARY LOW AND PARENT
CIRCULATION KEEPING LOW CHANCE SNOW POPS GOING THROUGH MOST OF
MONDAY...AND EVEN INTO TUESDAY AS UPPER LOW FILLS VIRTUALLY OVERHEAD.

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL NUDGE THE REMAINS OF THE FILLING UPPER LOW
EASTWARD BY LATE WEDNESDAY WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
FROM THE EASTERN LAKES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. ANOTHER MESSY
STORM APPEARS IN THE OFFING FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

AVIATION /09Z-06Z/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
WEST.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BUT DECREASE DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY AS SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR PAZ010>012-017>019-024>028-033>036-045.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR PAZ041-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 24, 12:07 PM EST, 3 hours 3 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1207 PM EST SAT FEB 24 2007

PAZ010>012-017>019-024>028-033>036-041-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066-251715-
ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-NORTHERN CENTRE-
SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-SOMERSET-
BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-NORTHERN LYCOMING-SOUTHERN CLINTON-
SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-
PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
1207 PM EST SAT FEB 24 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SUNDAY MORNING UNTIL
MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE HEADED INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY WILL PUSH AN AREA
OF SNOW OR SLEET INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS SHORTLY BEFORE DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. THE MIXED PRECIPITATION OR SNOW WILL START ACROSS THE LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS SUNDAY...AND
BEGIN IN COMMUNITIES THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY DURING
THE MID DAY HOURS...AND CONTINUE ACROSS ALL AREA INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. THE MIXED PRECIPITATION OR SNOW COULD FALL HEAVY AT
TIMES.

AT PRESENT...EXPECTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BY SUNDAY NIGHT RANGE FROM
BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...TO
AS MUCH AS 5 INCHES ACROSS THE COUNTIES NEAR AND JUST TO THE NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80.

A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET OR FREEZING OCCURS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN MANY
LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA LATE IN THE
DAY SUNDAY OR SUNDAY EVENING. THE SLEET COULD ACCUMULATE ANOTHER
HALF INCH TO ONE INCH ON TOP OF THE SNOW. SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR INTERSTATE 80.

THERE STILL IS A LOWER PROBABILITY THAT THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AS MAINLY SNOW. IN THIS
CASE...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE HIGHER AND IN THE 5 TO 8 INCH
RANGE BEFORE ANY CHANGEOVER TO LIGHTER SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN
OCCURS LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

IF ALL SNOW OCCURS FOR SEVERAL HOURS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...IT COULD
FALL AT A RATE OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR. GREATLY REDUCING
VISIBILITY TO ONE HALF OF A MILE OR LESS.

ADDITIONALLY...A PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION OF OVER
ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
RIVER VALLEY...ON TOP OF THE SNOW AND SLEET LATE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATION THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. THE EXACT PATH OF
THIS STORM SYSTEM IS UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...IF HEAVY SNOW OR ICE
BECOMES IMMINENT...A WINTER STORM WARNING WILL BE ISSUED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SNOW
ACCUMULATION OF 3 INCHES OR MORE AND SIGNIFICANT ICE OR SLEET
ACCUMULATION.

PAZ004>006-037-042-251715-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-TIOGA-SULLIVAN-
1207 PM EST SAT FEB 24 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

LOW PRESSURE WILL HEAD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN
SUNDAY...AS A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST.

SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF PENNSYLVANIA
LATE SUNDAY MORNING OR EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE TO
FALL AT VARYING INTENSITY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. A SHALLOW LAYER OF
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING ALOFT COULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION TO
CAUSE THE SNOW TO MIX WITH SLEET LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY.

AT PRESENT...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND RATES OF SNOWFALL APPEAR TO BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN THOSE ASSOCIATED WITH THE VALENTINES DAY
STORM. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...TOPPED BY A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF
SLEET OR A THIN LAYER OF FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT ALL OF NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION. DRIVING
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...SO PLAN
EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION IF YOU MUST TRAVEL.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS OR REFER TO OUR
WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/SATATECOLLEGE FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON
THIS UPCOMING STORM SUCH AS STATEMENTS...AND POSSIBLE LATER
WINTER STORM WARNINGS OR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SNOW
ACCUMULATION OF 3 INCHES OR MORE AND SIGNIFICANT ICE OR SLEET
ACCUMULATION.

LAMBERT/TYBURSKI/CRUZ

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Feb 24, 11:46 AM EST, 3 hours 24 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1146 AM EST SAT FEB 24 2007

PAZ004>006-037-042-250330-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-TIOGA-SULLIVAN-
1146 AM EST SAT FEB 24 2007

...SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW AND SOME SLEET POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT...

LOW PRESSURE WILL HEAD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN
SUNDAY...AS A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST.

SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF PENNSYLVANIA
LATE SUNDAY MORNING OR EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE TO
FALL AT VARYING INTENSITY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. A SHALLOW LAYER OF
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING ALOFT COULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION TO
CAUSE THE SNOW TO MIX WITH SLEET LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY.

AT PRESENT...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND RATES OF SNOWFALL APPEAR TO BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN THOSE ASSOCIATED WITH THE VALENTINES DAY
STORM. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...TOPPED BY A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF
SLEET OR A THIN LAYER OF FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT ALL OF NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION. DRIVING
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...SO PLAN
EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION IF YOU MUST TRAVEL.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS OR REFER TO OUR
WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/SATATECOLLEGE FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON
THIS UPCOMING STORM SUCH AS STATEMENTS...AND POSSIBLE LATER
WINTER STORM WARNINGS OR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES.

LAMBERT

The office that day

Everything else NWS State College, PA issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 24, 3:10 PM ESTWinter Weather AdvisoryCTPAdams, Bedford, Blair, Cambria, Cameron, Centre and 27 more43 hr

Nearby

Winter Storm Warnings in Pennsylvania, 2007Every winter storm warning in 2007

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.