Red Flag Warning 3, NWS State College, PA

Adams County, PA, Bedford County, PA, Blair County, PA, Cambria County, PA, Cameron County, PA, Centre County, PA, Clearfield County, PA, Clinton County, PA, Columbia County, PA, Cumberland County, PA, Dauphin County, PA, Elk County, PA, Franklin County, PA, Fulton County, PA, Huntingdon County, PA, Juniata County, PA, Lancaster County, PA, Lebanon County, PA, Lycoming County, PA, McKean County, PA, Mifflin County, PA, Montour County, PA, Northumberland County, PA, Perry County, PA, Potter County, PA, Schuylkill County, PA, Snyder County, PA, Somerset County, PA, Sullivan County, PA, Tioga County, PA, Union County, PA, Warren County, PA, York County, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
145 AM EDT SUN MAY 6 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
LARGE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE IS PUSHING SOUTHWARD AND WILL MOVE
UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S ON MONDAY
MORNING...ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD FROST. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
SHOULD SLIDE TO OUR SOUTH LATER IN THE WEEK ALLOWING MOISTURE TO
RETURN TO THE AREA SLOWLY AND AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
LATER IN THE WEEK. A FRONT IN THE NORTHERN STREAM COULD TRIGGER
SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
MACHINE GUIDANCE POORLY DEPICTING SFC DEWPOINTS THIS MORNING AND
DROPPED THESE A GOOD 10-15F THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DEWPOINT RECOVERIES ONLY EXPECTED INTO THE 20S IN MOST PLACE AND
REMAINING IN THE TEENS ACROSS NORTHEAST SECTIONS. NIL SKY COVER
THIS MORNING AND A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER MEAN THAT WELL SEE A
BREEZY DAY THROUGHOUT CENTRAL PA WITH SFC WINDS OF 10-15 KTS BY
LATE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
NORTHEAST SFC WINDS WILL BE CHANNELED THROUGH THE NEARLY PARALLEL
VALLEYS ACROSS CENTRAL PENN COULD AND WILL LIKELY AVERAGE 15 KTS
SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KTS. THE DRY AIR AND WINDS COULD DRY
FUELS AND INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FIRE THREAT. IT SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR
EVERYWHERE AS MASSIVE ANTICYCLONE SURGES SOUTHEASTWARD. DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL BE A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN SAT.

WINDS SLACKEN OFF AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE
AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. WILL ISSUE FROST ADVISORY NPW
FOR ALL BUT ADAMS...YORK AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN AREAS THAT HAVE
BEGUN THEIR GROWING SEASONS. THIS ESSENTIALLY INCLUDES COUNTIES
FROM TEH SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE MIDDLE
SUSQUEHANNA RIVER VALLEY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
30S AND SOME 20S IN THE COLDER SPOTS IN THE N/CENTRAL MTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION
MONDAY. ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM (EPS) HEIGHTS SHOW LARGE
ANOMALIES AND 1 TO 1.5 STANDARD DEVIATION BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER (PW) VALUES. LOW DEW POINTS...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
POTENTIAL MONDAY AM AND A COOL DAY WITH REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND ZONAL FLOW SETS
UP TO OUR NORTH...WE APPEAR CUT-OFF FROM THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES
WITH ABOVE NORMAL H5. THE PW STAYS LOW TUESDAY BUT HIGH PW BUILDS TO
OUR WEST...CONVECTION TO OUR WEST COULD SPILL CLOUDS INTO OUR REGION
MID-WEEK. WITH THE HIGH TO OUR SOUTH TUES-WED AND WEAKENING THE
WEATHER SHOULD STILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET. PW VALUES AT TIMES GO TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. HENCE EPS DATA SUGGESTS SLIGHT CHANCE
SHOWER...MOST LIKELY AFTERNOON TYPE STUFF WED-THU. LOW PROB STUFF.

SO...HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH LOW SPREAD IN EPS SUGGEST COOL DRY
MON-EARLY TUES. SHOULD BE WARMING UP WED-THU WITH INC CHC SHOWERS.

THE FLOW OVER OUR AREA REMAINS WEEK THU BUT THE PW AND PRESSURE
FIELDS SUGGEST A FRONT COULD PUSH SOUTH FRI-SAT. THIS CAUSES
INCREASED PW VALUES AHEAD OF IT THU-FRI. IF THIS FRONT PANS OUT
BEST CHANCE RAIN WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH IT LATE THU-FRI. THE
INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL PLUMES OF PRECIP AND TEMPS IS
PROBABLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND ITS TIMING.

LOW CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS/POPS THU-SAT WITH POTENTIAL FRONTAL SYSTEM
FROM NORTH. LATEST GUIDANCE (12Z GFS/GEFS) SHOWS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM FASTER
THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. THIS WOULD IMPLY BEST CHANCE OF RAIN LATE
THU-FRI WHEREAS EARLY GUIDANCE EMPLOYED HEREIN IMPLIED FRI-SAT.
SAT IS LOOKING BETTER IN MORE RECENT FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS A LARGE
ANTICYCLONE AND DRY AIR OVERSPREAD THE REGION. MOISTURE AND
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SHOULD BE SLOW TO RETURN BY THE MIDDLE TO END
OF NEXT WEEK.

IN THE SHORT TERM...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE QUICKLY
EXITING/DISSIPATING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH COINCIDENT WITH FAIRLY
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF DRY BACK-DOOR SFC COLD FRONT AND
RATHER POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGING SEWD THRU NEW
ENGLAND.

EXPECT SUSTAINED NNELY SFC WNDS AOA 10KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
SLOWLY DIMINISHING TO BELOW 10 KTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
LOOK FOR A SECOND PERIOD OF GUSTY SFC WNDS 15-25KTS PRIMARILY
BTWN 12-20Z SUNDAY WITH STRONG LLVL MIXING BLW THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. WNDS WILL RELAX BY LATE SUNDAY AFTN AS AN ANOMALOUS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTS SWD FROM SRN ONTARIO.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY NNELY SFC WINDS /15-25KTS/ RETURN FROM THIS MORNING THRU MUCH
OF THE AFTN RESULTING FROM AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
STRONG LOW LEVEL MIXING BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.

CONSIDERING THE LACK OF...OR JUST EARLY STAGES OF GREENUP ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND NRN PENN...COMBINED WITH THE
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...DRY FINE FUELS AND INCREASING WIND...THE UPCOMING
24 HOURS OR SO MAY BE ONE OF THE MORE ACTIVE WILDFIRE PERIODS THIS
SPRING. WILL UPGRADE TO RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR ALL AREAS FROM NOON
TODAY THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-056>059-063>066.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ026>028-035-
036-049>053-056>059-063.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...GRUMM
AVIATION...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
FIRE WEATHER...DEVOIR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1043 PM EDT SAT MAY 5 2007

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-070245-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-
JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-
SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-
ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
1043 PM EDT SAT MAY 5 2007

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FIRE WEATHER WATCH

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

STEINBUGL