Wind Advisory 10, NWS Brownsville, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
245 AM CST TUE DEC 11 2007

.DISCUSSION...THE LLJ IS A BIT STRONGER OFF THE DECK THIS MORNING...
WITH THE VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWING 40 KTS BEGINNING AT 2000 FT. THE
LATEST BRO SOUNDING SHOWS A NEARLY SATURATED...MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
LAYER CONDUCIVE TO MIXING UP TO ABOUT 5000 FT. AS A RESULT...
MODERATE AND GUSTY WINDS WITH BKN LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS NEAR THE
COAST SHALL CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE INTERACTION OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND WEST TEXAS WILL HELP KEEP BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS GOING TODAY AS WELL. A 1030 SOMETHING MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IS MARCHING STEADILY SOUTH AND
WILL MANAGE TO PUSH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY...AND EVEN INTO
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON THURSDAY. AN H5 CUT OFF LOW NOW ROUGHLY OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWESTERN NEVADA WILL EJECT NORTHEAST
OVER THE TOP OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER ON WEDNESDAY...
WEAKENING THE CENTERS ADVANCE. THIS WILL RELEGATE THE FIRST PUSH TO
A WEAK WIND SHIFT AND MINOR TEMPERATURE DIP. ANOTHER H5 S/W TROUGH
DESCENDS SOUTH INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AND EJECTS
NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND
BEHIND THIS EXITING S/W TROUGH WILL BE A 1040 PLUS MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER MOVING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THROUGH COLORADO. THE
VANGUARD FRONT REACHES DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SATURDAY MORNING...WITH A
LINE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE SATURDAY FRONT. MODEL
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE HAS TAKEN A STEP DOWNWARD...NOW REFLECTING
NORMAL TO EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEGINNING SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE SHOWING ANY UPWARD PROCLIVITY.
THUS...THIS NEW AIR MASS WILL BRING COOLER...DRIER...SUNNY AND
SEASONAL WEATHER FOR A FEW DAYS IN ITS WAKE.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 751 PM CST MON DEC 10 2007...BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND 70...WHICH IS A
FULL 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PRECLUDE FOG
FORMATION. WILL BE UPDATING WINDS IN FORECAST AS WESTERN FORECAST
LOOKS TOO LOW. PENULTIMATE PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 132 PM CST
MON DEC 10 2007...COLD FRONT STALLED JUST S OF A ROUGHLY LRD TO RKP
LINE. WILL CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS NAM IN THE SHORT TERM AS IT
CONTINUES TO HANDLE THIS FRONT BETTER THAN OTHER MODELS. FRONT WILL
BEGIN MVG BACK N LATE TONIGHT AS CUT OFF LOW OVER BAJA CA BEGINS TO
EJECT NE. FRONT WILL PUSH S AGAIN MVG THROUGH CWA THU AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MVS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. A WEAK LOW/COASTAL TROUGH WILL
FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER THE WRN GULF PRODUCING SCHC TO CHC POPS
INTO THE WEEKEND. A SECONDARY SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DIVING S ACROSS
THE PLAINS WILL ENHANCE THE TROUGHING ALONG THE COAST WITH INCREASED
CLOUDS AND CAA PRODUCING MORE SEASONAL TEMPS AND SCHC TO CHC POPS
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.MARINE...BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS GUSTING
TO NEAR 24 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY OVER 5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 7
SECONDS AT 24 CST/06 UTC. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS WILL BE
IN EFFECT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE AS
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS ARE ANTICIPATED. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL ALSO BE IN EFFECT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING FROM 20 TO
60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE AS WINDS AND SEAS WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE
UNFAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS THERE. MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS WILL
THEN PREVAIL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER TEXAS COAST...WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW QUICKLY
REDEVELOPING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO PASS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WITH POSSIBLE GALE WARNING WINDS
AND SEAS SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
&&

.AVIATION...BREEZY WINDS WITH SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS WILL AGAIN
PREVAIL OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...LOOKS LIKE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY AND TOMORROW ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...
BUT RH VALUES WILL REMAIN TOO HIGH FOR RED FLAG WARNINGS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW            81 71 81 66 77 61 / 05 05 05 10 10
BROWNSVILLE        82 71 82 65 78 61 / 05 05 05 10 10
FALFURRIAS         84 73 82 62 75 57 / 05 05 05 10 10
HARLINGEN          84 70 82 62 77 60 / 05 05 05 10 10
HEBBRONVILLE       83 71 79 57 72 56 / 05 05 05 10 10
MCALLEN            83 71 83 63 75 60 / 05 05 05 10 10
PORT ISABEL        81 71 80 66 77 62 / 05 05 05 10 10
RIO GRANDE CITY    83 73 82 63 75 58 / 05 05 05 10 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 80 72 79 67 77 63 / 05 05 05 10 20
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SCA FOR WINDS GMZ130-132-135 12Z TODAY TO 06Z WED.
SCA GMZ170-175 12Z TODAY TO 06Z WED.
&&

54/66

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
500 AM CST TUE DEC 11 2007

TXZ248>257-121100-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
500 AM CST TUE DEC 11 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
LAGUNA MADRE AND FROM 20 TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE DUE TO WINDS
AND SEAS. AND...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE
BEACHES OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND AND BOCA CHICA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OR GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED ALONG THE LOWER
TEXAS COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS STRONG WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. A MODERATE TO
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE LOCAL BEACHES IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

TOMASELLI