Red Flag Warning 4, NWS Brownsville, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
249 AM CST SAT DEC 22 2007

.DISCUSSION...VAD WINDS INDICATED MAX WINDS OF 51 KNOTS AT 3000FT
EARLY THIS MORNING. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
WAS PRODUCING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS
OF THE CWA. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND INCREASING SAT AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. COOLER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO DEEP SOUTH TX
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SETTLE INTO SOUTH TX SUNDAY AS A 500MB TROUGH ACROSS WEST TX
SATURDAY LIFTS NORTHEAST SUNDAY. GFS CONTINUES TO PROG SOME
MOISTURE RETURNING LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DROPS OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO WEST TX. WILL MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS FOR MONDAY INTO
CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY AS A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH/LOW MAY
STILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE
RIDGE OVER SOUTH TX WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AS THE PROCESSION OF FAST
MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES WITH ANOTHER TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO WEST
TX AGAIN TUESDAY. A BRIEF ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS AS A RESULT BEFORE
THE NEXT COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH SOUTH TX WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL
MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUES NIGHT/WED MORNING MAINLY
FOR THE COASTAL SECTIONS. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO SOUTH TX
WEDNESDAY BUT CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT OF RAIN RETURNS NORTHWARD
THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD AND A BROAD AREA OF
CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS ALONG THE TX COASTLINE. A COASTAL LOW IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE AND MOVE NORTHEAST
FRIDAY BRINGING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SOUTHWARD.
WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY AS A RESULT.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
MRNG...WITH ONLY A BRIEF MVFR DECK OF STRATOCU AROUND SUNRISE. BY
MID MRNG...STRONG SW LLVL WNDS WILL NEGATE ANY LOW CLOUDS IN ADVANCE
OF A COLD FRONT. STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BY 18Z TDY IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.
AVIATORS CAN EXPECTED A MODERATE CHOP WITH THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
JET AND STRONG CROSS WINDS IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.
&&

.MARINE...OFFSHORE SSE WINDS AT 23G27KTS WITH SEAS SLOWLY BUILDING
TO 5 TO 6 FEET THIS MRNG. THE DOMINANT WAVE PERIOD IS ONLY 5
SECONDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OVERNIGHT AND THE LAGUNA BEING ADDED BY NOON TODAY. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPENS OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS...CAUSING
THESE HIGH OVERNIGHT WINDS...AS 850 TROF ACCELERATES SW WINDS TO
40KTS OVR THE LWR TX GULF WATERS BY 12Z. FROPA FOR ADJ GULF AROUND
18Z TDY. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SHIFT NORTHWEST TO NORTH AND
INCREASE 20 TO 30 KNOTS BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10
FEET THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL MAINTAIN FORCE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
WITH A SUBSTANTIAL DECREASE OF BOTH WINDS AND SEAS SUNDAY NIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WILL DROP FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
TODAY AS WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO BELOW 35 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  77  48  66  49 /  10   0   0  10
BROWNSVILLE          79  45  67  48 /  10   0   0  10
HARLINGEN            78  42  68  47 /  10   0   0   0
MCALLEN              77  45  69  48 /  10   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      75  45  67  48 /  10   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   77  50  66  52 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SCA FROM 22/06Z TO 23/00Z FOR GMZ150-155-170-175.
SCA FROM 22/18Z TO 23/00Z FOR GMZ130-132-135.
&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
900 AM CST SAT DEC 22 2007

TXZ248>257-231200-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
900 AM CST SAT DEC 22 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS
OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...AS INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. AND...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND AND BOCA CHICA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY. ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF ADDITIONAL COLD FRONTS.
A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE LOCAL BEACHES IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

TOMASELLI