High Wind Watch 4, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

000 
WWUS71 KBOX 141939
NPWBOX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
339 PM EDT SAT APR 14 2007

MAZ020>024-RIZ005>008-150345-
/O.CON.KBOX.HW.W.0003.070415T1800Z-070416T1000Z/
SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-
NANTUCKET MA-BRISTOL RI-WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-BLOCK ISLAND RI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FALL RIVER...NEW BEDFORD...
MATTAPOISETT...CHATHAM...FALMOUTH...PROVINCETOWN...
VINEYARD HAVEN...NANTUCKET...BRISTOL...NARRAGANSETT...WESTERLY...
NEWPORT...BLOCK ISLAND
339 PM EDT SAT APR 14 2007

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM
EDT MONDAY...

A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM
EDT MONDAY FOR THE SOUTH COAST COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS. 

A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG AND
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS TO THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

A HIGH WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST AN HOUR...WITH GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR GREATER
AT ANY TIME. DAMAGE TO TREES...POWER LINES...AND PROPERTY ARE
POSSIBLE WITH WIND OF THIS MAGNITUDE. POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY.
TAKE ACTION NOW TO SECURE ANY LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

$$

MAZ007-015-016-019-150345-
/O.CON.KBOX.HW.A.0004.070415T2000Z-070416T1000Z/
EASTERN ESSEX MA-SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-
EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GLOUCESTER...BOSTON...QUINCY...PLYMOUTH
339 PM EDT SAT APR 14 2007

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...

A HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS COAST.

A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS
COAST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND PARTICULARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 25 AND 40 MPH LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND PARTICULARLY AT NIGHT. WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 60 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A TIME SUNDAY NIGHT.

RESIDENTS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND PREPARE FOR
HIGH WINDS SHOULD WARNINGS BE ISSUED. ANY LOOSE ITEMS THAT ARE
OUT OF DOORS...SUCH AS TRASH BARRELS AND LAWN FURNITURE...SHOULD
BE SECURED OR BROUGHT INDOORS BY SUNDAY MORNING. TRAVEL COULD
ALSO BECOME DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.

A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG DAMAGING
WINDS TO DEVELOP IN THE MENTIONED AREAS.  THESE STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF DOWNING TREES AND POWER LINES AS WELL AS CAUSING
PROPERTY DAMAGE.  IF A HIGH WIND WARNING IS ISSUED...STAY INSIDE
AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

$$

FRANK

000 
WWUS71 KBOX 150222
NPWBOX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1022 PM EDT SAT APR 14 2007

MAZ020>024-RIZ005>008-151100-
/O.CON.KBOX.HW.W.0003.070415T1800Z-070416T1000Z/
SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-
NANTUCKET MA-BRISTOL RI-WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-BLOCK ISLAND RI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FALL RIVER...NEW BEDFORD...
MATTAPOISETT...CHATHAM...FALMOUTH...PROVINCETOWN...
VINEYARD HAVEN...NANTUCKET...BRISTOL...NARRAGANSETT...WESTERLY...
NEWPORT...BLOCK ISLAND
1022 PM EDT SAT APR 14 2007

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM
EDT MONDAY...

A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM
EDT MONDAY FOR THE SOUTH COASTS OF MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE
ISLAND...INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. 

A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG AND
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS TO THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

A HIGH WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST AN HOUR...WITH GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR GREATER
AT ANY TIME. DAMAGE TO TREES...POWER LINES...AND PROPERTY ARE
POSSIBLE WITH WIND OF THIS MAGNITUDE. POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY.
TAKE ACTION NOW TO SECURE ANY LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

$$

MAZ007-015-016-019-151100-
/O.CON.KBOX.HW.A.0004.070415T2000Z-070416T1000Z/
EASTERN ESSEX MA-SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-
EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GLOUCESTER...BOSTON...QUINCY...PLYMOUTH
1022 PM EDT SAT APR 14 2007

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...

A HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE EAST COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS.

A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS
COAST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND PARTICULARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 25 AND 40 MPH LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND PARTICULARLY AT NIGHT. WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 60 MPH 
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A TIME SUNDAY NIGHT.

RESIDENTS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND PREPARE FOR
HIGH WINDS SHOULD WARNINGS BE ISSUED. ANY LOOSE ITEMS THAT ARE
OUT OF DOORS...SUCH AS TRASH BARRELS AND LAWN FURNITURE...SHOULD
BE SECURED OR BROUGHT INDOORS BY SUNDAY MORNING. TRAVEL COULD
ALSO BECOME DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.

A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG DAMAGING
WINDS TO DEVELOP IN THE MENTIONED AREAS.  THESE STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF DOWNING TREES AND POWER LINES AS WELL AS CAUSING
PROPERTY DAMAGE.  IF A HIGH WIND WARNING IS ISSUED...STAY INSIDE
AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

$$

EVT

000 
WWUS71 KBOX 150806
NPWBOX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
406 AM EDT SUN APR 15 2007

MAZ007-015-016-019-151615-
/O.UPG.KBOX.HW.A.0004.070415T2000Z-070416T1000Z/
/O.EXB.KBOX.HW.W.0003.070415T2200Z-070416T0900Z/
EASTERN ESSEX MA-SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-
EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GLOUCESTER...BOSTON...QUINCY...PLYMOUTH
406 AM EDT SUN APR 15 2007

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
MONDAY. THE HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING STRONG
WINDS TO IMMEDIATE COASTAL SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. BOSTON IS INCLUDED IN THIS WARNING.

EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 25 AND 40 MPH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND PARTICULARLY TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 60 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE FOR A TIME TONIGHT.

ANY LOOSE ITEMS THAT ARE OUT OF DOORS...SUCH AS TRASH BARRELS AND
LAWN FURNITURE...SHOULD BE SECURED OR BROUGHT INDOORS BY SUNDAY
MORNING. TRAVEL COULD ALSO BECOME DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY IN HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES.

A HIGH WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST AN HOUR...WITH GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR GREATER
AT ANY TIME.  DAMAGE TO TREES...POWER LINES...AND PROPERTY ARE
POSSIBLE WITH WIND OF THIS MAGNITUDE. POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY.
TAKE ACTION NOW TO SECURE ANY LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

$$

MAZ020>024-RIZ005>008-151615-
/O.EXT.KBOX.HW.W.0003.070415T2200Z-070416T0900Z/
SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-
NANTUCKET MA-BRISTOL RI-WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-BLOCK ISLAND RI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FALL RIVER...NEW BEDFORD...
MATTAPOISETT...CHATHAM...FALMOUTH...PROVINCETOWN...
VINEYARD HAVEN...NANTUCKET...BRISTOL...NARRAGANSETT...WESTERLY...
NEWPORT...BLOCK ISLAND
406 AM EDT SUN APR 15 2007

...HIGH WIND WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM
EDT MONDAY...

THE HIGH WIND WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
5 AM EDT MONDAY. 

A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING STRONG
WINDS TO IMMEDIATE COASTAL SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT.

EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 25 AND 40 MPH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND PARTICULARLY TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 60 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE FOR A TIME TONIGHT.

ANY LOOSE ITEMS THAT ARE OUT OF DOORS...SUCH AS TRASH BARRELS AND
LAWN FURNITURE...SHOULD BE SECURED OR BROUGHT INDOORS BY SUNDAY
MORNING. TRAVEL COULD ALSO BECOME DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY IN HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES.

A HIGH WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST AN HOUR...WITH GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR GREATER
AT ANY TIME. DAMAGE TO TREES...POWER LINES...AND PROPERTY ARE
POSSIBLE WITH WIND OF THIS MAGNITUDE. POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY.
TAKE ACTION NOW TO SECURE ANY LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

$$

MAZ006-013-014-017-018-RIZ001>004-151615-
/O.NEW.KBOX.WI.Y.0015.070415T2200Z-070416T0900Z/
WESTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-
NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAWRENCE...FOXBORO...NORWOOD...
CAMBRIDGE...TAUNTON...BROCKTON...FOSTER...SMITHFIELD...
PROVIDENCE...WEST GREENWICH...WARWICK
406 AM EDT SUN APR 15 2007

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
MONDAY. 

A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT.

EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND PARTICULARLY TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR A TIME TONIGHT.

ANY LOOSE ITEMS THAT ARE OUT OF DOORS...SUCH AS TRASH BARRELS AND
LAWN FURNITURE...SHOULD BE SECURED OR BROUGHT INDOORS BY SUNDAY
MORNING. TRAVEL COULD ALSO BECOME DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY IN HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES.

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
31 TO 39 MPH OR GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 46 AND 57 MPH.  WINDS
THIS STRONG ARE CAPABLE OF DOWNING SMALL TREE LIMBS AND
BRANCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.  DRIVING CAN
ALSO BE DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
545 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2007

...STRONG NOR EASTER WARRANTS ISSUANCE OF MULTIPLE HEADLINES FOR SUN
INTO MON...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CALM BEFORE STORM TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS
OVER NEW ENGLAND. CLOUDINESS HAS BEEN SLOW TO ERODE...ESPECIALLY
OVER CT VALLEY REGION BUT SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY AS SUBSIDENCE
INCREASES AND NW FLOW RELAXES.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN HANDLING OF ANOMALOUS COASTAL STORM FOR
MID APRIL...WITH 00Z NAM/GFS HOLDING FIRM IN THEIR EXPECTATION THAT
LOW WILL TRACK INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. NAM BRINGS IT INTO CT
BEFORE SHIFTING IT BACK OFFSHORE AND WEAKENING SYSTEM...WHILE GFS
TAKES IT ALL WAY INTO NH BEFORE ROTATING IT BACK. NAM SOLUTION IS
ACTUALLY BETTER SUPPORTED BY 12Z/13 GFS ENSEMBLES...BUT 00Z/14
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ACTUALLY LINE UP WELL WITH OPERATIONAL GFS. 21Z/13
SREFS FAVOR A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK CLOSER TO EASTERN LONG ISLAND.

THEN WE HAVE OTHER CAMP LED BY 00Z ECMWF...UKMET AND CANADIAN
MODELS...WHICH ARE MUCH SLOWER AND KEEP COASTAL STORM A BIT FARTHER
S. HOWEVER WE NOTED EVEN THESE MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE MORE
TOWARD COAST THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THESE
MODELS GIVEN THEIR MUCH BETTER CONSISTENCY...AND FACT THAT THEY ALL
MAINTAIN LOWER PRESSURES W OF APPALACHIANS WHICH MAKES SENSE WITH
SUCH A DEEP SYSTEM.

THEREFORE WE WILL BASE FORECAST ON LOW REACHING LONG ISLAND MON
EVENING. GFS/NAM ARE PROBABLY A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING
PRECIPITATION INTO REGION SUN...SO WE BACKED OFF ON TIMING A BIT
WITH A START TIME IN CT/WESTERN MA JUST AFTER 12Z SUN AND TO COASTAL
PLAIN BY MIDDAY.

THIS STORM PRESENTS A VARIETY OF POTENTIAL HAZARDS...AND GIVEN OUR
GROWING CONFIDENCE WE THINK NOW IS TIME TO BEGIN TO ISSUE WATCHES
FOR THIS EVENT...WHICH INCLUDES GAMUT FROM WINTER STORM WATCHES
ACROSS OUR NW ZONES TO COASTAL FLOODING AND HIGH WINDS ON CAPE COD

WINTER STORM POTENTIAL... ALTHOUGH NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS ARE LIKELY TOO
WARM GIVEN MORE INLAND TRACK...CROSS SECTIONS ON BOTH MODELS SHOW
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL HOURS OF HEAVY WET SNOW ACROSS OUR FAR
INTERIOR ZONES AS PRECIPITATION INCREASES IN INTENSITY SUN
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH AT START SUN MORNING
FOR RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX...THESE HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS
SHOULD COOL DOWN RAPIDLY AS LIFT INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY AND DRAWS
UPON VERY COLD AIR ALOFT. SNOW GROWTH IS NOT IDEAL AS IT IS CENTERED
IN RELATIVELY WARMER AIR OF -5 TO -10C...BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
REACH MARGINAL WARNING CRITERIA FROM WESTERN HAMPSHIRE AND FRANKLIN
COUNTIES TO CHESHIRE AND WESTERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES. WE THINK
ADJACENT ZONES IN WESTERN...CENTRAL AND PERHAPS NE MA COULD REACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA /2-4 INCHES/ BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

HIGH WIND POTENTIAL... MODELS BRING SCREAMING LOW LEVEL JET OF
70-80KT THROUGH SE NEW ENGLAND LATE SUN AFTERNOON AND SUN NIGHT.
CROSS SECTIONS EVEN SHOW WINDS OF 50-60KT REACHING DOWN CLOSE TO
SURFACE FROM BLOCK ISLAND TO CAPE COD...AND SOUNDINGS INDICATE GUSTS
OF 45-55KT LIKELY DURING THIS TIME. THEREFORE WE WILL ISSUE A HIGH
WIND WATCH FOR S COASTAL RI/MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. WE
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE GUSTS OF 65 MPH ON NANTUCKET IF THIS
IS MODELED CORRECTLY...AND THAT IS NOT A LOCK GIVEN PREFERENCE TO
LEAN AWAY FROM NAM/GFS.

WIND ADVISORIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED ALONG E MA COAST...BUT WE
MAY ALSO NEED TO EXPAND WATCH HERE AS WELL IN LATER FORECASTS.

REFER TO SECTIONS BELOW FOR RIVER FLOOD...COASTAL FLOOD...AND MARINE
IMPACTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
...STRONG COASTAL STORM STILL EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...

EVEN WITH WIDE SPREAD OF MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE
MAJOR COASTAL SYSTEM DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THIS TIMEFRAME...
STILL FEEL THERE WILL BE A MAJOR MULTIPLE IMPACT FROM THIS STORM
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE BIG PROBLEM IS IN THE DETAILS...AS THERE ARE TWO CAMPS OF MODEL
SOLUTIONS WHICH MAKE THIS A DIFFICULT FORECAST. THE FIRST CAMP...THE
U.S. MODELS /NAM AND GFS/ CONTINUE TO TREND THE LOW TRACK ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MAKING A LOOP
OVERHEAD...THEN SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THE SECOND CAMP...THE
INTERNATIONAL MODELS /ECMWF...UKMET AND CANADIAN GGEM/ TENDS TO KEEP
THE STORM FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF THE U.S. MODELS. HOWEVER...THERE
WAS A SHIFT ON THE GGEM ON THE 00Z RUN...WHICH LOOKED EERILY SIMILAR
TO THE GFS A FEW DAYS AGO...BRINGING THE LOW CLOSER TO THE NJ COAST
THEN RIGHT OVER LONG ISLAND BY 00Z TUESDAY. THIS IS FURTHER N THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. ADDED TO THIS IS THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN...WHICH NOW ALSO BRINGS THE LOW INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

THIS LEADS TO A DILEMMA AS TO WHICH WAY TO DIRECT THE FORECAST. AT
THIS POINT...DECIDED TO STICK CLOSE TO THE CANADIAN GGEM AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS...SINCE THEY HAVE HAD SUCH GOOD CONTINUITY. WITH THAT...
WE WENT WITH A VARIETY OF WATCHES THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY.

FIRST...STILL EXPECT A SLUG OF MOISTURE TO ROTATE INTO THE REGION.
AT THIS POINT...APPEARS THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS...ON THE ORDER OF 2-4 INCHES OF RAINFALL.
THE HEAVIEST WILL FALL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...THIS IS
DEPENDENT UPON ULTIMATE TRACK OF THE LOW...WHICH COULD SHIFT THE
HEAVIEST AXIS FURTHER INLAND. SO...FLOOD WATCH ISSUED FOR MOST AREAS
DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

NEXT...STRONG WINDS. STRONGEST WINDS WILL HIT THE SOUTH COAST FROM
AROUND 00Z-06Z MONDAY. 925 HPA JET OF 70-75 KTS HEADS FOR THE SOUTH
COAST DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...AND EXPECT AT LEAST SOME OF THIS TO
MIX DOWN WITH THE VERY HEAVY PRECIPITATION THAT IS ALSO FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE COD
AND THE ISLANDS FOR THIS POTENTIAL.

AS FOR MIXED OR WINTRY PRECIPITATION...EXPECT BEST SHOT AT ANY
MEASURABLE SNOW PRIOR TO THIS...SINCE BY THIS TIME ENOUGH WARMER AIR
WILL HAVE ROTATED INTO THE REGION OFF THE 40 DEGREE OCEAN WATERS.
THERE COULD STILL BE A BIT OF A MIX FOR A TIME SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WELL INLAND.  AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST...WILL PROBABLY SEE A PERIOD OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS AS
THE STEADIER PRECIP TAPERS OFF.  APPEARS THIS COULD OCCUR DURING
TUESDAY.

FINALLY...COASTAL FLOOD THREAT. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE BEST
POTENTIAL DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME. HOWEVER...AGAIN...THIS
ALL DEPENDS UPON THE ULTIMATE TRACK OF THE LOW AND WHETHER IT
ACTUALLY STALLS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. IF IT DOES THIS...THE COASTAL
FLOOD WATCH COULD BE EXTENDED INTO THE MONDAY TIDE CYCLES. THIS WILL
BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR THIS POTENTIAL.

IT NOW APPEARS THAT...EVEN WITH THE DEVELOPING BLOCKING UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48...THAT THIS LOW MAY ACTUALLY SLOWLY
ROTATE EAST OUT TO SEA DURING TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...WITH SUCH A LARGE SYSTEM...ITS INFLUENCE WILL BE FELT
THROUGH MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.  WILL KEEP CHANCE OF
RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AT LEAST.
CLOUDS MAY FINALLY BREAK UP AS THE LOWS CIRCULATION FINALLY SHIFTS
EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME SUNSHINE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY.
THIS IS ALSO WHEN WE MAY ALSO GET A SHOT OF SEEING NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. PRIOR TO THIS...EXPECT TEMPS TO BE RUNNING 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL /AT LEAST/.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z-06Z/...
VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF 06Z TAF PERIOD. AREA OF LOWER
CLOUDS WITH BASES 3.5-5KFT WILL COVER MUCH OF INTERIOR SITES TODAY...
WHILE MID LEVEL DECK WITH BASES NEAR 10KFT WILL EXIT RI AND SE MA
THIS MORNING. CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS BRING CEILINGS AOA 10KFT THIS EVENING.

NW WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25KT EARLY THIS MORNING...EVEN ACROSS
INTERIOR...BUT WILL DIMINISH BY DAYBREAK. KACK SHOULD HOLD ONTO THESE
STRONGER GUSTS UNTIL MID MORNING. SOUNDINGS STILL SUPPORT 20KT GUSTS
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH AND BECOME N/NE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUN TO 12Z SUN...
MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD TERMINALS 09Z-12Z SUN.

OUTLOOK BEYOND 12Z SUN...
IFR LIKELY SUN MORNING AS RAIN BEGINS NEAR CT VALLEY BY MID MORNING
AND ALONG COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH LIFR POSSIBLE AS WELL SUN
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MON. IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS /KORH/ FOR A CHANGE TO SNOW SUN AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN
NW MA AND SW NH.

E/NE WINDS BECOME GUSTY AFTER 18Z SUN WITH STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR COAST 21Z SUN-06Z MON WHEN 50KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. VERY STRONG
LOW LEVEL JET MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS EXPECTED TO
BRING LLWS TO ALL TERMINALS LATE SUN AFTERNOON AND SUN EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
LEFTOVER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS/SEAS WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER WATERS. WE HEADLINED GALE WARNINGS ON
ALL WATERS STARTING SUN AS CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT GALE FORCE E/NE
WINDS WILL ARRIVE BEFORE END OF DAY. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
LATE SUN AFTERNOON AND SUN NIGHT WHEN STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON WATERS AROUND CAPE COD...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH YET TO ISSUE STORM WARNINGS.

NONETHELESS...THIS IS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION FOR MARINERS
FROM COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND HIGH SEAS...WHICH COULD GET AS
HIGH AS 25 FEET OFFSHORE.

CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE MON INTO TUE...AS LOW WEAKENS
WHILE HEADING SLOWLY OFFSHORE. EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN HIGH AS SWELL
COMPONENT PERSISTS INTO MIDWEEK.

BY WEDNESDAY...EXPECT N WINDS WILL FINALLY DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
SUBSIDE...BUT ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET THROUGH THE
DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED FROM SUN INTO MON...
WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER RI AND EASTERN MA WHERE
SOME 5 INCH TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCATIONS.

ALTHOUGH RUNOFF MAY BE LIMITED BY COLDER TEMPERATURES IN 30S ACROSS
MUCH OF INTERIOR...WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE THESE AREAS AS WELL SINCE
IT IS POSSIBLE WE WILL NEED TO SHIFT AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL A BIT
FARTHER INLAND SHOULD THE LOW ENDS UP TRACKING FARTHER N AND W THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO HEADWATER AND FLOOD GUIDANCE TO JUSTIFY WATCH.

IN ADDITION TO POTENTIAL FOR RIVER AND STREAM FLOODING...WE ALSO
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING SUN AFTERNOON
INTO MON.

&&

.TIDES...
COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE RI/MA
COASTLINE FOR SUN NIGHT HIGH TIDE. WHILE THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY
IN TRACK OF SURFACE LOW...NAMELY HOW FAR N DOES IT TRACK AND DOES IT
END UP INLAND OR REMAIN OFFSHORE...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AT LEAST
MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING SUN NIGHT FROM COMBINATION OF HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES...PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AND WAVE ACTION.

CERTAINLY MORE INLAND TRACK OFFERED BY 00Z NAM/GFS WOULD MEAN LESS
OF A FLOOD THREAT AS DURATION OF STRONG ONSHORE WINDS WOULD BE LESS
THAN WHAT IS DEPICTED BY MORE OFFSHORE TRACK OF 00Z ECMWF AND
CANADIAN... BUT EVEN WITH INLAND TRACK WE COULD SEE MINOR TO PERHAPS
MODERATE FLOODING WHICH JUSTIFIES WATCH AT THIS TIME.

RIGHT NOW WE EXPECT ABOUT A 2 FOOT STORM SURGE SUN NIGHT. HIGH TIDE
OCCURS ALONG S COASTAL RI/MA AROUND 730 PM OR SO...AND ALONG E MA
COAST INCLUDING CAPE COD AND ISLANDS CLOSER TO 1030 PM.

WE DID NOT EXTEND WATCH BEYOND SUN NIGHT HIGH TIDE SINCE WE HAVE
LESS CONFIDENCE IN FLOOD POTENTIAL MON INTO TUE...WHICH IS HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON TRACK OF LOW. SHOULD IT SLOW DOWN S OF LONG ISLAND OR
NANTUCKET...WE COULD HAVE COASTAL FLOODING OVER SUCCESSIVE HIGH TIDE
CYCLES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     CTZ002>004.

MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
     NIGHT FOR MAZ002-003-008.

     FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ004>007-009>024-026.

     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     EVENING FOR MAZ020-021.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
     NIGHT FOR MAZ020>024.

     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH SUNDAY EVENING FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-
     022>024.

NH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
     NIGHT FOR NHZ011-015.

     FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     NHZ012.

RI...FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     RIZ001>008.

     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     EVENING FOR RIZ002-004>008.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
     NIGHT FOR RIZ005>008.

MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ230>237-
     250-254-255.

&&

SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...JWD
MARINE...JWD/EVT
HYDROLOGY...JWD
TIDES...JWD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
433 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2007

MAZ002-003-008-NHZ011-015-151100-
WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
CHESHIRE NH-WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-
433 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2007

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WATCH

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 2 INCHES OR MORE.

MAZ020-021-RIZ005>008-151100-
SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-BRISTOL RI-WASHINGTON RI-
NEWPORT RI-BLOCK ISLAND RI-
433 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2007

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...
...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...
...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST
MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH
   HIGH WIND WATCH
   COASTAL FLOOD WATCH

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOR REPORTS OF
RAINFALL...HIGH WINDS...FLOODING AND COASTAL FLOODING.

MAZ007-015-016-019-151100-
EASTERN ESSEX MA-SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-
433 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2007

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...
...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT SUNDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MASSACHUSETTS...EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH
   COASTAL FLOOD WATCH

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOR REPORTS OF
RAINFALL...FLOODING AND COASTAL FLOODING.

CTZ002>004-MAZ004>006-009>014-017-018-026-NHZ012-RIZ001-003-151100-
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-
CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-WESTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-
EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-
WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-
WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-
NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-
433 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2007

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT...CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS...EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHEAST
MASSACHUSETTS...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOR REPORTS OF
RAINFALL AND FLOODING.

RIZ002-004-151100-
SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-EASTERN KENT RI-
433 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2007

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...
...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH
   COASTAL FLOOD WATCH

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOR REPORTS OF
RAINFALL...FLOODING AND COASTAL FLOODING.

ANZ230>237-250-254-255-151100-
BOSTON HARBOR-CAPE COD BAY-NANTUCKET SOUND-VINEYARD SOUND-
BUZZARDS BAY-RHODE ISLAND SOUND-NARRAGANSETT BAY-BLOCK ISLAND SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MERRIMACK RIVER MA OUT 25 NM TO PLYMOUTH MA OUT
40 NM...INCLUDING THE STELLWAGEN BANK NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MONTAUK NY TO BLOCK ISLAND RI TO MARTHAS
VINEYARD MA TO NANTUCKET MA SOUTHEAST TO 20 NM-
433 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2007

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL WATERS
AND RHODE ISLAND COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOR REPORTS OF
HIGH WINDS.

MAZ022>024-151100-
BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA-
433 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2007

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...
...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...
...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT SUNDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH
   HIGH WIND WATCH
   COASTAL FLOOD WATCH

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOR REPORTS OF
RAINFALL...HIGH WINDS...FLOODING AND COASTAL FLOODING.

JWD