Coastal Flood Statement 2, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

000 
WHUS41 KBOX 191248 CCA
CFWBOX

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
848 AM EDT THU APR 19 2007

...SPLASHOVER OR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED DURING THE TIME
OF HIGH TIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

MAZ007-015-016-019-022>024-200215-
/O.COR.KBOX.CF.S.0002.070419T1248Z-070420T0800Z/
EASTERN ESSEX MA-SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-
EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA-
848 AM EDT THU APR 19 2007

THE COMBINATION OF HIGH ASTRONOMICAL SPRING TIDES...NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS AVERAGING 15 TO 25 KT AND SEAS NEAR 10 FEET WILL
BRING A STORM SURGE OF AROUND ONE FOOT THIS AFTERNOON AND ONE HALF
FOOT TONIGHT. EXPECT SOME SPLASHOVER OR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS COASTLINE MAINLY DURING
TONIGHTS HIGH TIDE.

THERE IS ANOTHER HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SOME SPLASHOVER POSSIBLE AT THAT TIME. HOWEVER A SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCE FOR SPLASHOVER OR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING EXISTS DURING
TONIGHTS HIGH TIDE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BEYOND TONIGHTS HIGH TIDE.

STORM TIDE FORECASTS FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS ARE IN FEET MEAN
LOWER LOW WATER. TIME OF HIGH TIDE HAS BEEN ROUNDED TO THE NEAREST
HOUR.

THIS AFTERNOONS HIGH TIDE


SITE                   FLOOD     TIME OF FORECAST    STORM TIDE
                       STAGE        HIGH TIDE        

EAST COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS 

GLOUCESTER HARBOR       11.5         01 PM THU          10.9
MARBLEHEAD              12.8         01 PM THU          11.4 
BOSTON HARBOR           13.5         01 PM THU          11.9
SCITUATE                12.5         01 PM THU          11.1
PLYMOUTH                14.2         01 PM THU          11.8 
SANDWICH                12.0         01 PM THU          11.5
PROVINCETOWN            12.0         01 PM THU          11.4
CHATHAM OUTER HARBOR     9.0         01 PM THU           8.7
NANTUCKET HARBOR         6.0         02 PM THU           4.3


TONIGHTS HIGH TIDE

SITE                   FLOOD     TIME OF FORECAST    STORM TIDE
                       STAGE        HIGH TIDE        

EAST COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS 

GLOUCESTER HARBOR       11.5         01 AM FRI          11.6
MARBLEHEAD              12.8         01 AM FRI          12.2
BOSTON HARBOR           13.5         01 AM FRI          12.7 
SCITUATE                12.5         01 AM FRI          11.7
PLYMOUTH                14.3         01 AM FRI          12.6 
SANDWICH                12.0         01 AM FRI          12.2
PROVINCETOWN            12.0         01 AM FRI          12.1 
CHATHAM OUTER HARBOR     9.0         01 AM FRI           9.3
NANTUCKET HARBOR         6.0         02 AM FRI           5.1

$$

STRAUSS

000 
WHUS41 KBOX 191931
CFWBOX

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
331 PM EDT THU APR 19 2007

...SPLASHOVER EXPECTED ALONG THE EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS COAST DURING
THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE TONIGHT...

MAZ007-015-016-019-022>024-200800-
/O.CAN.KBOX.CF.S.0002.000000T0000Z-070420T0800Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.CF.Y.0001.070419T1931Z-070420T0800Z/
EASTERN ESSEX MA-SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-
EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA-
331 PM EDT THU APR 19 2007

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
ALL OF EAST COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS FROM THE MOUTH OF THE 
MERRIMACK RIVER TO MARTHAS VINEYARD INCLUDING CAPE COD.

THE COMBINATION OF HIGH ASTRONOMICAL SPRING TIDES...NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS AVERAGING 15 TO 25 KT AND SEAS NEAR 10 FEET WILL
BRING A STORM SURGE OF AROUND ONE HALF FOOT TONIGHT. EXPECT SOME
SPLASHOVER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS COASTLINE
DURING THE TIME OF TONIGHTS HIGH TIDE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BEYOND TONIGHTS HIGH TIDE.

STORM TIDE FORECASTS FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS ARE IN FEET MEAN
LOWER LOW WATER. TIME OF HIGH TIDE HAS BEEN ROUNDED TO THE
NEAREST HOUR.


TONIGHTS HIGH TIDE

SITE              FLOOD     TIME OF FORECAST            STORM TIDE
                  STAGE         HIGH TIDE                
 
EAST COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS

GLOUCESTER HARBOR  11.5        01 AM FRI                  11.5 
MARBLEHEAD         12.8        01 AM FRI                  12.1
BOSTON HARBOR      13.5        01 AM FRI                  12.6 
SCITUATE           12.5        01 AM FRI                  11.6
GREEN HARBOR       11.5        01 AM FRI                  11.8
PLYMOUTH           14.3        01 AM FRI                  12.5 
SANDWICH           12.0        01 AM FRI                  12.1
PROVINCETOWN       12.0        01 AM FRI                  12.0 
CHATHAM OUTER HRBR  9.0        01 AM FRI                   9.2
NANTUCKET HARBOR    6.0        02 AM FRI                   5.0

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT ONSHORE WINDS...WAVES AND
SPRING TIDES WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS
ALONG THE SHORE.

$$

STRAUSS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
438 AM EDT THU APR 19 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...THE STORM FRO THIS PAST
WEEKEND...WILL MOVE FARTHER EAST INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC TODAY.
MEANWHILE...A HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC PROVINCES IN
CANADA WILL BEGIN TO EXERT ITS INFLUENCE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND
LINGER INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE LINGERING EFFECTS OF THE MAJOR NOREASTER
FROM EARLIER THIS WEEK. ONSHORE FLOW RESULTING IN VERY LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE...WHICH SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH AS THE DAY WEARS ON.

19/00Z MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT...SO USED A BLEND OF THE NAM AND
GFS TO MINIMIZE TIMING AND LOCATION ERRORS. DID THE SAME FOR MOS
TEMPERATURES AS WELL. MOS DEW POINTS TOO LOW...SO ADJUSTED THOSE TO
REFLECT LATEST OBS THIS MORNING. IT IS NOT TOO OFTEN WE SEE WARMER AIR
ARRIVING ON A NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND...BUT THIS IS ONE OF THOSE TIMES.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE APPROACHING MORE NORMAL LEVELS FOR FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE TO GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND.  A
SHORTWAVE CRESTING THE UPPER RIDGE ON SATURDAY MOVES ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT.  THE GFS HINTS AT THIS SHORTWAVE DRAWING A
BACK DOOR FRONT INTO EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS SUNDAY WITH SOUTH OR
SOUTHEAST WINDS IN EASTERN MASS AND WESTERLIES IN THE CT VALLEY.
THE SURFACE RIDGE THEN SETS UP SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND MONDAY WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING SOUTH OF US BY AFTERNOON.  THIS BRINGS
WESTERLIES AT ALL LEVELS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
MONDAY.

OVERALL THIS LOOKS LIKE A DRY WEEKEND WITH SOME CIRRUS ON SATURDAY
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE.  THIS MOVES OFF BY SUNDAY MORNING.  ANOTHER
BATCH OF HIGH CLOUDS IN THE WARM ADVECTION/OVERRUNNING COMING AROUND
THE TRAILING SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH...MOST OF THIS LIFT LOOKS TO
FOCUS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...FULL SUN SATURDAY SHOULD BRING MIXING TO 850
MB.  SOME BUFFERING IN EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AS THE WEAK WIND FIELD
ALLOWS FOR A DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE. WHERE THERE IS FULL MIXING...850
MB TEMPERATURES OF 5-6C SHOULD SUPPORT SURFACE TEMPS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S.  ON SUNDAY SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE WEST WHILE EASTERN AREAS AFFECTED BY
ANY BACK DOOR FRONT AND RESULTING MARINE FLOW WOULD BE HELD TO THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

TEMPERATURES MONDAY ARE MOST INTERESTING.  WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
SHIFTING SOUTH AND INCREASING WESTERLIES ALOFT...ANY BACK DOOR FRONT
WOULD BE BLASTED BACK TO THE GULF OF MAINE.  THE EXPECTED WESTERLY
SURFACE FLOW WOULD BRING FULL MIXING ALL THE WAY TO THE EASTERN
COAST WITH BUFFERING LIMITED TO PARTS OF CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS...CAPE ANN...AND AREAS IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF NARRAGANSETT
BAY.  THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS 850 MB TEMPERATURES OF 12-14C OVER THE
REGION ON MONDAY...THE 00Z GFS SHOWS 12-13C.  FULL MIXING OF THIS TO
THE SURFACE WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS OF 80-84.  WE HAVE ADJUSTED THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST UP 3-4 DEGREES AS A FIRST STEP TOWARD THESE
NUMBERS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z-06Z/...
AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON...TAKING THE LONGEST SOUTH AND EAST OF KBOS-KPVD-KBDL. VFR
CONDITIONS CURRENTLY EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH LIGHTER WINDS AFTER 22Z TODAY. PLEASE SEE THE TAFS FOR THE
SPECIFICS.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST REPLACING THE GALE WARNING WITH A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY A GOOD IDEA. EXTENDED THIS ADVISORY THROUGH
FRIDAY WHERE CONFIDENCE THE HIGHEST...ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
THE SOUNDS PRESENT A TRICKIER CHALLENGE. KEPT ADVISORY THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED BY LATER SHIFTS TODAY.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY...ALLOWING
WINDS TO SUBSIDE SOME AS WELL. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE LIGHT
WINDS FRIDAY...BUT WILL STILL HAVE LINGERING ROUGH SEAS TO CONTEND
WITH.

IN THE LONGER TERM FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND PICK UP IN THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN ON MONDAY.
WARM ADVECTION OVER THE COLDER WATERS MAY HOLD WINDS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS...BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BRING IT CLOSE. SEAS
WILL START THE WEEKEND AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET IN MOST MARINE ZONES...BUT
THE LIGHT FLOW SHOW ALLOW VALUES TO SUBSIDE BY SOMETIME SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SEVERAL RIVERS REMAIN IN FLOOD EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT ARE SLOWLY
RECEDING. LIGHT RAINFALL THIS MORNING WILL BE HYDROLOGICALLY
INSIGNIFICANT. WILL UPDATE FLOOD STATEMENT AROUND 5 AM...AFTER REVIEW
OF LATEST RIVER STAGE OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE.

&&

.TIDES...
HIGH TIDE RECEDING FROM ITS PEAK EARLIER THIS MORNING. SEAS SLOWLY
SUBSIDING AS WELL. AS SUCH...HAVE DROPPED THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING
FOR NOW. MINOR COASTAL SPLASH OVER COULD STILL BE EXPERIENCED THROUGH
DAYBREAK THROUGH 5 AM OR SO. SEAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE
THROUGH TONIGHT...REDUCING THE THREAT OF FURTHER COASTAL FLOODING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ232-250-254-
     255.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ233>235-237.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ230-
     231-236.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...BELK
MARINE...BELK/WTB
HYDROLOGY...BELK
TIDES...BELK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
643 AM EDT THU APR 19 2007

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>008-201045-
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-
SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-
SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-
WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-
SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA-
NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-CHESHIRE NH-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-
WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI-BRISTOL RI-
WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-BLOCK ISLAND RI-
643 AM EDT THU APR 19 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...
ALL OF MASSACHUSETTS EXCEPT BERKSHIRE COUNTY...SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS.

IN ADDITION...COASTAL SPLASH OVER IS POSSIBLE WITH THE EARLY MORNING
HIGH TIDE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ230>237-250-254-255-201045-
BOSTON HARBOR-CAPE COD BAY-NANTUCKET SOUND-VINEYARD SOUND-
BUZZARDS BAY-RHODE ISLAND SOUND-NARRAGANSETT BAY-BLOCK ISLAND SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MERRIMACK RIVER MA OUT 25 NM TO PLYMOUTH MA OUT
40 NM...INCLUDING THE STELLWAGEN BANK NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MONTAUK NY TO BLOCK ISLAND RI TO MARTHAS
VINEYARD MA TO NANTUCKET MA SOUTHEAST TO 20 NM-
643 AM EDT THU APR 19 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND
COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.