Tornado Warning 160, NWS Birmingham, AL

000 
WWUS54 KBMX 281534
SVSBMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
933 AM CST FRI DEC 28 2007

ALC009-055-281600-
/O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0160.000000T0000Z-071228T1600Z/
ETOWAH AL-BLOUNT AL-
933 AM CST FRI DEC 28 2007

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM CST FOR EAST
CENTRAL BLOUNT AND WEST CENTRAL ETOWAH COUNTIES...

AT 930 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO.  THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 9 MILES WEST OF WALNUT 
GROVE...JUST NORTH OF ONEONTA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
  WALNUT GROVE BY 945 AM CST...

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS
THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY
ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE
LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO
NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

LAT...LON 3411 8615 3409 8617 3399 8643 3403 8645
      3414 8633 3411 8631 3415 8625
TIME...MOT...LOC 1533Z 247DEG 35KT 3403 8641

$$

61

000 
WWUS54 KBMX 281543
SVSBMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
942 AM CST FRI DEC 28 2007

ALC009-055-281600-
/O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0160.000000T0000Z-071228T1600Z/
ETOWAH AL-BLOUNT AL-
942 AM CST FRI DEC 28 2007

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM CST FOR EXTREME
EAST CENTRAL BLOUNT AND WEST CENTRAL ETOWAH COUNTIES...

AT 939 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A TORNADO.  THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED BETWEEN SNEAD AND 
ALTOONA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

DO NOT USE YOUR CAR TO TRY TO OUTRUN A TORNADO. CARS ARE EASILY
TOSSED AROUND BY TORNADO WINDS. IF YOU ARE CAUGHT IN THE PATH OF A
TORNADO...LEAVE THE CAR AND GO TO A STRONG BUILDING. IF NO SAFE
STRUCTURE IS NEARBY...SEEK SHELTER IN A DITCH OR LOW SPOT AND COVER
YOUR HEAD.

LAT...LON 3411 8615 3409 8617 3404 8636 3407 8638
      3413 8633 3411 8630 3415 8625
TIME...MOT...LOC 1542Z 240DEG 31KT 3408 8633

$$

61

000 
WWUS54 KBMX 281552
SVSBMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
952 AM CST FRI DEC 28 2007

ALC009-055-281602-
/O.EXP.KBMX.TO.W.0160.000000T0000Z-071228T1600Z/
ETOWAH AL-BLOUNT AL-
952 AM CST FRI DEC 28 2007

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR EXTREME EAST CENTRAL BLOUNT AND WEST
CENTRAL ETOWAH COUNTIES EXPIRES AT 1000 AM CST...

THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER HAS ENDED. THE STORMS THAT PROMPTED THE
WARNING HAVE WEAKENED.

LAT...LON 3411 8615 3409 8617 3404 8636 3407 8638
      3413 8633 3411 8630 3415 8625
TIME...MOT...LOC 1552Z 241DEG 30KT 3411 8625

$$

61

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
552 AM CST FRI DEC 28 2007

.UPDATE...12Z AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MOISTURE AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS RAPIDLY RETURNING TO AREA THIS
MORNING IN ADVANCE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
FROM NRN TEXAS/SRN OKLAHOMA TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES TODAY.  THIS WILL
BRING A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY INTO THE STATE BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
THE FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT.  UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS ARE NOT QUITE LINING UP FOR A LONG AND SUSTAINED SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE A WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL OCCUR AS STRONG LOW LEVEL JET SPREADS ACROSS
THE AREA AND INTERACTS WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL LIFTING FROM DEPARTING
UPPER JET...MAX DAYTIME HEATING...AND SURFACE INSTABILITY.  AS THE
UPPER LEVEL JET MOVES NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON
EXPECT TO SEE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DIMINISHING.  THE FRONT WILL
SWEEP RAPIDLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT
WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND IT BRINGING AN END TO THE
PRECIPITATION FROM THE WEST. GENERALLY FOLLOWED GUID TEMPS AND POPS
FOR TONIGHT SINCE THEY SEEM TO FIT THE EXPECTED FRONTAL MOVEMENT
WELL.

41

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

RAIN SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE COMING TO AN END
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED INTO EASTERN
ALABAMA. LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY STALLS
TO OUR SOUTH.

EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE...LOW LEVEL FLOW
INCREASES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS IN THE
NORTHERN GULF. THIS WILL PUSH THE STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY
NORTHWARD...SPREADING RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. 00Z MODEL
RUNS...GFS/NAM/ECMWF...HAVE SLIGHTLY DIFFERING SOLUTIONS WITH
LOCATION AND TIMING. THE GFS AND NAM SHIFT THE MAIN RAIN AXIS A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH...WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
TIMING AND QUICKER TO RETURN SHOWERS TO THE AREA. FEEL THAT WITH
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW...RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT...AND THEN OVER SPREAD MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE SOUTH
INTERSTATE 20. BELIEVE MODEL QPF IS A BIT OVERDONE...BUT MANY
LOCATIONS COULD SEE AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN FROM THIS EVENT.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
SUNDAY...RAIN ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AN END SUNDAY EVENING. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A SURGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR TO CENTRAL
ALABAMA. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAVE KEPT CONDITIONS DRY AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH...NOT READY TO BITE ON LOW POPS THIS FAR INTO THE
EXTENDED JUST YET. COLDER AIR WILL DEFINITELY SETTLE INTO THE
AREA...TO MAKE FOR QUITE A CHILLY START TO 2008. BY
WEDNESDAY...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S AREAWIDE. LOWS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL DROP INTO THE 20S.

14

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER
TROUGH HAS SPREAD IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS AND NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSRA
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.  WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE TCL...BHM...ANB...AND EET SITES
THROUGH 15Z.  EXPECT MAINLY LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FROM THESE STORMS.
LOOK FOR MAIN THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WINDS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED TORNADOES TO OCCUR FROM AROUND 16Z TO 00Z AS AIR MASS
DESTABILIZES AND INTERACTS WITH LIFTING FROM DEPARTING UPPER
JET...SURFACE INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.  HOWEVER...THE
INSTABILITY COULD BE LIMITED DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
INHIBITING SURFACE HEATING.  THEREFORE HAVE JUST INCLUDED TEMPO
TSRA GROUPS AT THIS TIME SINCE CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAF.  COLDFRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO
WESTERN ALABAMA BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND EXIT EASTERN SECTIONS BETWEEN
03Z AND 06Z.  LOOK FOR MVFR CIGS TO LAG BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 8 TO 10 KNOTS.

41

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
530 AM CST FRI DEC 28 2007

ALZ011>015-017>050-291200-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
530 AM CST FRI DEC 28 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING A THREAT OF
TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS...ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY.
WHILE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA...THE AREA WITH THE GREATEST THREAT IS ROUGHLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 59.  THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT COULD
BEGIN AS EARLY AS 10 AM IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES...AND LAST AS LATE AS
6 PM IN THE EAST.

STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS COMBINED WITH DEEP GULF MOISTURE WILL ACT
TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
CLOUDS AND RAIN THIS MORNING MAY IMPEDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS.
HOWEVER...DUE TO FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR IN THE LOW LEVELS...ANY SEVERE
STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO FORM MAY DEVELOP ROTATION THAT COULD LEAD TO
TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL MAY
BE NECESSARY BY LATE THIS MORNING.