Flash Flood Warning 2, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1001 PM EDT WED MAR 14 2007

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO ALTER GRID TIMING OF PRECIP ONSET. LARGE
AREA OF MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS COMING OFF LAKE ERIE ATTM. THIS AREA
WILL EXACERBATE EXISTING WATERSHED PROBLEMS, AND WE WILL MONITOR
FOR SHORT FUSE ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS.

AS FORECAST, CONVECTION STRETCHING ALL THE WAY BACK TO INDIANA,
WILL FLOW NORTHEASTWARD OVER OUR REGION THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. DJP

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 359 PM EDT WED MAR 14 2007/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
STILL A VERY COMPLICATED SCENARIO UNFOLDING ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY. CURRENTLY...STRONG VORT MAX PER WV IMAGERY HAS MOVED
INTO WNY WITH A WIDESPREAD AREA OF RAIN AFFECTING MOST OF THE FA.
THIS S/WAVE WILL MOVE EAST AND SHUT THE RAIN OFF BTWN APPROX 00Z-
06Z WHICH IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY. TEMPS AND DWPTS HAVE CLIMBED
INTO THE 50S AND MUCH OF THE EXISTING SNOWPACK HAS MELTED.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO CNY THIS EVENING AND HELP GENERATE
MORE RAINFALL OVERNIGHT. BOTH GFS/NAM/RUC BRING ANOTHER S/WAVE OUT
OF THE MS VALLEY AFTER 06Z AND FIRE UP AN EVEN BIGGER AREA OF PCPN
AFTER 06Z. ADDNL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE BTWN
06Z-12Z ESPECIALLY IN THE FINGER LAKES AND SRN TIER REGION. THIS
IS QUITE A BIT MORE PCPN THAN INITIALLY EXPECTED AND WILL LIKELY
HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON RIVER LEVELS.

ON THURSDAY...COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY IN. RAIN WILL
BEGIN TO MIX WITH SNOW AFTER 15Z ACROSS NORTH...15Z-18Z OVER SRN
TIER AND AFTER 00Z IN NEPA. HAVE KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA FOR TONIGHT THRU THE DAY THURSDAY...TAPERING POPS DOWN
DURING THE AFTERNOON BEGINNING IN THE NORTH.

SNOW CHCS CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. GFS...AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT THE NAM...DEVELOP COASTAL LOW ON FRIDAY AND SPREAD
PRECIPITATION INTO SRN COUNTIES DURING THE DAY. HWO HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR POTENTIAL WINTER STORM OVER POCONOS AND CATSKILLS BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBILITY OF
WINTER STORM WATCHES WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD. COLDER TEMPS AGAIN
ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND WITH INTERESTING COASTAL DEVELOPMENT SHOWN
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THIS MORNINGS GFS FURTHER WEST WITH SFC LOW,
ALONG THE NEW JERSEY COAST TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON TRACK OF SYSTEM, COULD STILL SEE SOME LEFT
OVER PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AT THE START OF THE NEW
WEEK, WAA WITH MILDER TEMPS AND A SHOT AT SOME LIQUID SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT AND WEAK SFC LOW DROPPING SE ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA.

AVIATION /18Z-18Z/...
AREA OF STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN MOVING ACROSS TAF SITES FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS AFTN WILL LOWER CEILINGS AND OCCASIONALLY VISBY
TO MVFR VALUES. THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF, ALSO FROM WEST TO EAST,
DURING THE 21Z-24Z TIME FRAME. ONCE THE RAIN TAPERS OFF, CEILINGS
MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE, BUT DEVELOPMENT OF SOME FOG AT MOST SITES
COULD BRING MVFR CONDITIONS BACK FOR MOST OF THE EVENING. ANOTHER
AREA OF STEADY RAIN WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT, GENERALLY FROM 07Z-09Z.
EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISBY TO LOWER TO IFR CONDITIONS. RAIN WILL
TAPER OFF WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT AROUND MID-MORNING THURSDAY.

WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST 5 TO 12 KTS THIS AFTN WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AT SYR, RME AND ITH, OVERNIGHT AT ELM AND
BGM, AND TWD MORNING AT AVP.

HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS CONTINUING TO RISE AS SNOW MELTS AND RAIN KEEPS COMING
DOWN. MANY RIVERS ALREADY RUNNING AT LEAST 0.5 TO 1 FOOT HIGHER
THAN FORECAST AS DWPTS HAVE CLIMBED WELL INTO THE 50S TODAY. NO
ADDN/L REPORTED ICE JAMS AS OF THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH CONCERN IS
STILL THERE. FOCUS BEGINNING TO SHIFT TO POTENTIAL HEAVIER
RAINFALL EXPECTED OF POSSIBLY AN ADDN/L INCH LATE TONIGHT. THIS
COULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD MINOR TO MODERATE RIVER FLOODING OVER THE
CHEMUNG AND SUSQUEHANNA RIVER BASINS TOMORROW. FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR INCREASING RIVER CONCERNS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NYZ009-015>018-022>025-
     036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

PA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-
     048-072.

&&

SHORT TERM...DJP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
317 PM EDT WED MAR 14 2007

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055-056-151930-
NORTHERN ONEIDA-YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-STEUBEN-
SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-CHENANGO-
OTSEGO-TIOGA-BROOME-
317 PM EDT WED MAR 14 2007

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE FLOOD THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TO MONITOR RIVER LEVELS
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

NYZ057-062-PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072-151930-
DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-BRADFORD-SUSQUEHANNA-NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-
LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE-
317 PM EDT WED MAR 14 2007

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW
YORK...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE FLOOD THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...A COASTAL STORM DEVELOPS AND
SPREADS PRECIPITATION BACK NORTH INTO NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND
PORTIONS OF THE CATSKILLS ON FRIDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT LIGHT
TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COULD OCCUR ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
IN THESE AREAS. THERE REMAINS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TO MONITOR RIVER LEVELS
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

PB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1030 PM EDT WED MAR 14 2007

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072-151000-
BRADFORD-BROOME-CHEMUNG-CHENANGO-CORTLAND-DELAWARE-LACKAWANNA-
LUZERNE-MADISON-NORTHERN ONEIDA-NORTHERN WAYNE-ONONDAGA-OTSEGO-PIKE-
SCHUYLER-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-SOUTHERN WAYNE-
STEUBEN-SULLIVAN-SUSQUEHANNA-TIOGA-TOMPKINS-WYOMING-YATES-
1030 PM EDT WED MAR 14 2007

...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...

MILD AND MOIST AIR OVER THE REMAINING SNOW PACK WILL CREATE
POCKETS OF VERY DENSE FOG AROUND CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE NIGHT. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED TO NEAR
ZERO AT TIMES. LOCATIONS WHERE DENSE FOG WILL BE MORE COMMON WILL BE
NEAR RIVERS...AND IN AREAS WHERE THERE IS STANDING WATER OR
WIDESPREAD SNOW COVER.

MOTORISTS SHOULD PLAN ON AREAS OF POOR VISIBILITY...AND USE
EXTRA CAUTION.

JAB