Flash Flood Warning 15, NWS La Crosse, WI

000 
WGUS73 KARX 191136
FFSARX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
635 AM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007

WIC043-191300-
GRANT WI-
635 AM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 AM CDT FOR
NORTHERN GRANT COUNTY...

AT 630 AM CDT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN...REMAINED OVER THE WARNED AREA.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO MUSCODA AND
BOSCOBEL

AT 630 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTING ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. RADAR 
ESTIMATES INDICATE AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN EAST 
OF BOSCOBEL INTO THE MUSCODA AREA. LOCATIONS WITH THE GREATEST RISK 
OF FLASH FLOODING INCLUDE MUSCODA...FENNIMORE AND BOSCOBEL.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IMMINENT.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNED AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO FORGE
FLOODED ROADWAYS BY FOOT OR AUTOMOBILE. REMEMBER...TURN AROUND DONT
DROWN.

LAT...LON 4319 9043 4288 9041 4302 9100 4321 9054

$$

RRS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
323 AM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE ON RAIN AMOUNTS AND A CONTINUATION
OF FLASH FLOODING AND FLOODING. OF SECONDARY CONCERN IS TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL IOWA SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST IOWA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ERIN BEING PULLED NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE BOUNDARY ON 30 TO 40 KNOT 850MB WINDS. A LINE OF
CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON GOING MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. TRAINING ECHOES HAS RESULTED IN
A SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD EVENT WITH GAGE TOTALS UP TO 12 INCHES IN
A FEW LOCATIONS IN SOUTHERN LA CROSSE AND HOUSTON COUNTIES.

00Z 19AUG07 CONTINUE THE TREND OF SIMILARITIES WITH THE OVERALL
PATTERN BUT DIFFER IN THEIR QPF FIELDS. ONCE AGAIN FORCING SIGNALS
USED FOR QPF PLACEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. TROUGHING ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WESTERN CANADA WILL PUSH EAST WITH TIME...
WITH FAST NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES.

THE WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY ACROSS NORTHERN
IOWA WITH A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL REMAIN
A STRONG FOCUS FOR LIFT/MOISTURE POOLING AS WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES
RIDE OVER THE BOUNDARY. MODELS ARE SHOWING PERSISTENT 850MB THETA-E
ADVECTION AND POCKETS OF CONVERGENCE THAT SHOULD SUPPORT CONVECTION
TRAINING TRAINING ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE THE WAVE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIN WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO OKLAHOMA WITH THE
DEEPER MOISTURE BEING SHUNTED EAST OF THE AREA AS LOW LEVEL JET
VEERS TO OUR EAST. WOULD EXPECT HEAVIEST RAINFALL TO PUSH EAST OF THE
AREA LATER THIS MORNING...BUT WITH CONTINUED DECENT AMOUNT OF 850MB-
700MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES STILL EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WILL RAISE POPS TO
CATEGORICAL AND EXTEND FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 00Z TONIGHT.

WARM FRONT SINKS SOUTH TONIGHT ACROSS IOWA AS LOW LEVEL JET RE-
ESTABLISHES ITSELF FROM MISSOURI INTO IOWA...SETTING THE STAGE FOR
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. WILL
PLACE THE HIGHEST POPS FROM NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN
AND THEN TAPER THEM OFF AS YOU HEAD NORTH. WILL ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO
RE-EXAMINE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXTENDING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME. THE WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH WITH A
COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY. WILL
CONTINUE THE CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD PER THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

WITH GUIDANCE NUMBERS CONSISTENTLY COOLER WITH EACH MODEL RUN HAVE
LOWERED BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY/S HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

WITH ONGOING WEATHER ONLY TOOK A CURSORY LOOK AT THE NEW MODEL DATA
FOR THIS TIME FRAME. CONTINUED ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
OF STATES WITH WEAK WAVES TRANSLATING ACROSS THE AREA. CONTINUED
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH CHANCE POPS LOOKING GOOD.

.AVIATION...

A FLUX OF MOIST...UNSTABLE AIR NORTHWARD INTO AND OVER A SFC-850MB
FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS IA TO SOUTHERN MN WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING.
SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE AT OR NEAR THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH A GRADUAL SHIFT SOUTH/EAST OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION
AFTER SUNRISE. ABUNDANT MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE FRONTAL ZONE AND
EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS NORTH OF THE SFC FRONT WILL MAKE FOR PERSISTENT
IFR/MVFR CIGS THRU TODAY/TONIGHT. WITH CONTINUED...BUT WEAKER
MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE TONIGHT...SHRA/TSRA THREATS
CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES...BUT LESS SO THAN EARLY THIS MORNING.
WILL KEEP TSRA/CB MENTION IN TAFS FOR THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT LIMITED
UNTIL MORE DETAILS ARE KNOWN TO BETTER DEFINE ANY TSRA TIMES
PERIODS.

.HYDROLOGY...
MOISTURE FLUX OVER BOUNDARY RESULTING IN TRAINING ECHOES FROM
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. HEAVIEST RAIN
EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. FLASH FLOODING
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH SEVERAL RIVERS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA OVER FLOOD STAGE OR HEADED FOR FLOOD
STAGE. SEE FLOOD WARNINGS FOR ALL THE DETAILS ON THE RIVERS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR WIZ032-WIZ033-
     WIZ041-WIZ053-WIZ054-WIZ055-WIZ061.

MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MNZ079-MNZ086-
     MNZ087-MNZ088-MNZ094-MNZ095-MNZ096.

IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR IAZ008-IAZ009-
     IAZ010-IAZ011-IAZ018-IAZ019-IAZ029-IAZ030.

&&

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...RABERDING
.AVIATION...RRS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
330 PM CDT SAT AUG 18 2007

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ086>088-094>096-WIZ041-053>055-061-
191100-
ALLAMAKEE-CHICKASAW-CLAYTON-CRAWFORD-DODGE-FAYETTE-FILLMORE-FLOYD-
GRANT-HOUSTON-HOWARD-LA CROSSE-MITCHELL-MOWER-OLMSTED-RICHLAND-
VERNON-WINNESHIEK-WINONA-
330 PM CDT SAT AUG 18 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA...
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE PULLED NORTHWARD...AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE AND
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN SOUTH DAKOTA AND A FRONT LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS IOWA. AS A RESULT...THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE FLOODING PROBLEMS IF THEY FALL ON URBAN AREAS
OR ACROSS LOCATIONS THAT HAVE HAD SIGNIFICANT RAIN DURING THE PAST
WEEK. DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY TONIGHT...ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL KEEP THE AREA UNDER THE GUN FOR
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE REGION...ALONG WITH
CONTINUED MOISTURE RETURN INTO AND OVER A STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS IOWA...WILL BRING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE AREA
FOR MUCH OF THE SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD.

THE GREATEST THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE REPEATED
ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE QUITE MOIST...AND ANY
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD BE VERY GOOD RAIN PRODUCERS. REPEATED
BOUTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD LEAD TO CONTINUED FLOODING CONCERNS
ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL BE CLOSER TO THE AREA SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THE AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE FRONT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE UNSTABLE.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS OF SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF AN AUSTIN
MINNESOTA TO RICHLAND CENTER WISCONSIN LINE. THE SEVERE THREATS WOULD
BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.

FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND...IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE TIMING AND
DETAILS OF ANY SEVERE STORM THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SPOTTER
ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY AND OR MONDAY. RAINFALL REPORTS...
ALONG WITH REPORTS OF HEAVY RAIN...HIGH WATER OR FLOODING WOULD BE
GREATLY APPRECIATED.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO CALL IS SCHEDULED.

MNZ079-WIZ017-029-032>034-042>044-191100-
ADAMS-BUFFALO-CLARK-JACKSON-JUNEAU-MONROE-TAYLOR-TREMPEALEAU-WABASHA-
330 PM CDT SAT AUG 18 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
AND WESTERN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ABUNDANT MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE PULLED NORTHWARD...AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN SOUTH DAKOTA AND A FRONT
LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS IOWA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...BUT WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA...FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY TONIGHT...ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL KEEP THE AREA UNDER THE GUN FOR
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE REGION...ALONG WITH
CONTINUED MOISTURE RETURN INTO AND OVER A STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS IOWA...WILL BRING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE AREA
FOR MUCH OF THE SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD.

THE GREATEST THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE REPEATED
ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE QUITE MOIST...AND ANY
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD BE VERY GOOD RAIN PRODUCERS. REPEATED
BOUTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO AN INCREASED FLOODING THREAT
ACROSS THE AREA INTO NEXT WEEK. WITH THE FRONT AND MORE UNSTABLE
AIRMASS EXPECTED TO BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS IOWA...ANY
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND...IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE TIMING AND
DETAILS OF ANY SEVERE STORM THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. HOWEVER...ANY
HEAVY RAINFALL REPORTS WOULD BE GREATLY APPRECIATED.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO CALL IS SCHEDULED.

RRS/THOMPSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
241 AM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 AM     FLASH FLOOD      YUBA                    43.54N 90.43W
08/19/2007                   RICHLAND           WI   BROADCAST MEDIA

            FIRE DEPARTMENT UNDER WATER.

0220 AM     FLASH FLOOD      CAZENOVIA               43.53N 90.20W
08/19/2007                   RICHLAND           WI   BROADCAST MEDIA

            HIGHWAY 58 CLOSED.

0220 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 E YUBA                43.54N 90.37W
08/19/2007                   RICHLAND           WI   AMATEUR RADIO

            HIGHWAY 80 HAS BUCKLED NORTH OF CENTURY FARM ROAD.

&&

04

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
257 AM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 W VIROQUA             43.56N 90.93W
08/19/2007                   VERNON             WI   EMERGENCY MNGR

            CAR WASHED AWAY ON HIGHWAY 56...PEOPLE ESCAPED.

0245 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 NE COON VALLEY        43.71N 91.00W
08/19/2007                   VERNON             WI   EMERGENCY MNGR

            CAR WASHED AWAY AT COUNTY P AND SPRING COULEE
            ROAD...PEOPLE ESCAPED.

0245 AM     DOWNBURST        4 S GENOA               43.52N 91.23W
08/19/2007                   VERNON             WI   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MUDSLIDE WITH POWER LINES DOWN AT SHADY LANE AND HIGHWAY
            35.

&&

04

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
301 AM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 AM     FLASH FLOOD      4 S GENOA               43.52N 91.23W
08/19/2007                   VERNON             WI   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MUDSLIDE WITH POWER LINES DOWN AT SHADY LANE AND HIGHWAY
            35.

&&

04

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
310 AM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 AM     FLASH FLOOD      SOLDIERS GROVE          43.39N 90.77W
08/19/2007                   CRAWFORD           WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            2 FEET OF WATER OVER HIGHWAY 61 SOUTH OF TOWN AND THE
            ROAD IS CLOSED IN SOLDIERS GROVE.

&&

04

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
328 AM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 WSW ELGIN             44.12N 92.29W
08/19/2007                   WABASHA            MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            COUNTY 2 CLOSED NEAR THE OLMSTED COUNTY LINE.

0325 AM     FLASH FLOOD      ZUMBRO FALLS            44.29N 92.43W
08/19/2007                   WABASHA            MN   AMATEUR RADIO

            WATER OVER THE ROAD AT HIGHWAYS 60 AND 63.

&&

04

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
349 AM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0349 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 WNW ELGIN             44.15N 92.31W
08/19/2007                   WABASHA            MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            COUNTY 25 CLOSED NEAR THE OLMSTED COUNTY LINE.

&&

04