Winter Storm Warning 4, NWS Gaylord, MI

Alcona County, MI, Alpena County, MI, Antrim County, MI, Arenac County, MI, Benzie County, MI, Cheboygan County, MI, Crawford County, MI, Emmet County, MI, Gladwin County, MI, Grand Traverse County, MI, Iosco County, MI, Kalkaska County, MI, Leelanau County, MI, Manistee County, MI, Missaukee County, MI, Montmorency County, MI, Ogemaw County, MI, Oscoda County, MI, Otsego County, MI, Presque Isle County, MI, Roscommon County, MI, Wexford County, MI

000 
WWUS43 KAPX 010330
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1030 PM EST WED FEB 28 2007

...MAJOR WINTER STORM HEADING FOR THE GREAT LAKES...

.A STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATE TONIGHT...AND TRACK UP THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS STORM IS EXPECTED TO
BRING A ROUND OF HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...A PERIOD OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...MAINLY SOUTH OF MICHIGAN
ROUTE 72.

MIZ016>019-021>024-029-030-011100-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0004.070301T1200Z-070302T1200Z/
EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-
ALPENA-OSCODA-ALCONA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...ROGERS CITY...
CHARLEVOIX...MANCELONA...GAYLORD...ATLANTA...ALPENA...MIO...
HARRISVILLE
1030 PM EST WED FEB 28 2007

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO
7 AM EST FRIDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO
7 AM EST FRIDAY. 

SNOW WILL BEGIN TO FALL ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME HEAVY AT
TIMES THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MAY MIX WITH SLEET OR
FREEZING RAIN. BY FRIDAY EVENING...STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. IN ADDITION...
EASTERLY WINDS OF BETWEEN 15 AND 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL
PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW...LOWERED VISIBILITIES AND NEAR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY
HAZARDOUS.

$$

MIZ020-025>028-031>036-041-042-011100-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0004.070301T1200Z-070302T1200Z/
LEELANAU-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-
MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NORTHPORT...FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY...
KALKASKA...GRAYLING...MANISTEE...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY...
HOUGHTON LAKE...WEST BRANCH...TAWAS CITY...GLADWIN...STANDISH
1030 PM EST WED FEB 28 2007

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO
7 AM EST FRIDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO
7 AM EST FRIDAY. 

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO FALL THURSDAY MORNING THEN
TRANSITION TO A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION CHANGES OVER TO FREEZING
RAIN. SIGNIFICANT ICING WITH ACCUMULATIONS AROUND ONE QUARTER OF
AN INCH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY
HAZARDOUS.

$$

MIZ008-015-011100-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0004.070301T2100Z-070303T0000Z/
CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...ST. IGNACE
1030 PM EST WED FEB 28 2007

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO
7 PM EST FRIDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO
7 PM EST FRIDAY. 

SNOW WILL BEGIN TO FALL ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES LATE THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT.
BY FRIDAY EVENING...STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. IN ADDITION...EASTERLY
WINDS OF 15 AND 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW...LOWERED VISIBILITIES AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
AT TIMES.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY
HAZARDOUS.

$$

000 
WWUS43 KAPX 011036
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
536 AM EST THU MAR 1 2007

...MAJOR WINTER STORM STILL HEADING FOR THE GREAT LAKES...

.A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE EASTERN PLAIN TODAY INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. THIS STORM IS EXPECTED TO
BRING A ROUND OF HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE REGION LATER
TODAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...A PERIOD OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...MAINLY SOUTH OF MICHIGAN
ROUTE 72.

MIZ016>019-021>024-029-030-012300-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0004.070301T1200Z-070302T1200Z/
EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-
ALPENA-OSCODA-ALCONA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...ROGERS CITY...
CHARLEVOIX...MANCELONA...GAYLORD...ATLANTA...ALPENA...MIO...
HARRISVILLE
536 AM EST THU MAR 1 2007

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY. 

OCCASIONAL SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND
BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE SNOW MAY MIX WITH SLEET LATE TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. STORM TOTAL SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF MICHIGAN ROUTE 72.
IN ADDITION... EASTERLY WINDS OF BETWEEN 15 AND 30 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW...LOWERED VISIBILITIES
AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY
HAZARDOUS.

$$

MIZ020-025>028-031>036-041-042-012300-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0004.070301T1200Z-070302T1200Z/
LEELANAU-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-
MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NORTHPORT...FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY...
KALKASKA...GRAYLING...MANISTEE...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY...
HOUGHTON LAKE...WEST BRANCH...TAWAS CITY...GLADWIN...STANDISH
536 AM EST THU MAR 1 2007

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY. 

OCCASIONAL SNOW WILL FALL THIS MORNING THEN TRANSITION OVER TO A
MIXTURE OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. A CHANGEOVER BACK TO ALL SNOW IS THEN EXPECTED
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. STORM TOTAL SNOW AND SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING OF 3 TO 7 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH
ALONG AND SOUTH OF MICHIGAN ROUTE 72.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY
HAZARDOUS.

$$

MIZ008-015-012300-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0004.070301T2100Z-070303T0000Z/
CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...ST. IGNACE
536 AM EST THU MAR 1 2007

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON
TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY. 

SNOW WILL BEGIN TO FALL ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME HEAVY
AT TIMES TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY EVENING...STORM
TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WITH THIS STORM. IN ADDITION...EASTERLY
WINDS OF 15 AND 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW...LOWERED VISIBILITIES AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
AT TIMES.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY
HAZARDOUS.

$$

SULLIVAN

000 
WWUS43 KAPX 011720
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1220 PM EST THU MAR 1 2007

...MAJOR WINTER STORM STILL HEADING FOR THE GREAT LAKES...

.A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE EASTERN PLAIN TODAY
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. THIS STORM WILL
PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. IN ADDITION...A
PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...MAINLY
SOUTH OF MICHIGAN ROUTE 72.

MIZ016>019-021>024-029-030-021100-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-070302T1200Z/
EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-
ALPENA-OSCODA-ALCONA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...ROGERS CITY...
CHARLEVOIX...MANCELONA...GAYLORD...ATLANTA...ALPENA...MIO...
HARRISVILLE
1220 PM EST THU MAR 1 2007

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY. 

PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SLEET IS ALSO POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. STORM TOTAL SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...EASTERLY
WINDS OF BETWEEN 15 AND 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL PRODUCE
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW...LOWERED VISIBILITIES AND WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY
HAZARDOUS.

$$

MIZ008-015-021100-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0004.070301T2100Z-070303T0000Z/
CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...ST. IGNACE
1220 PM EST THU MAR 1 2007

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON
TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY. 

LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN TO FALL ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY EVENING...STORM TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN WITH THIS STORM. IN ADDITION...EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 AND
30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW...
LOWERED VISIBILITIES AND WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY
HAZARDOUS.

$$

MIZ020-025>028-031>036-041-042-021100-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-070302T1200Z/
LEELANAU-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-
MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NORTHPORT...FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY...
KALKASKA...GRAYLING...MANISTEE...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY...
HOUGHTON LAKE...WEST BRANCH...TAWAS CITY...GLADWIN...STANDISH
1220 PM EST THU MAR 1 2007

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY. 

PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND TRANSITION OVER
TO A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING. A CHANGEOVER BACK TO ALL SNOW IS THEN
EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING AND FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN
ADDITION...EAST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH GUSTING TO 40 MPH WILL
PRODUCE SOME BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES...PARTICULARLY
LATER TONIGHT. STORM TOTAL SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING RANGING FROM 3 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH ICE
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY
HAZARDOUS.

$$

ADAM

000 
WWUS43 KAPX 012137
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
437 PM EST THU MAR 1 2007

...MAJOR WINTER STORM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...

.A STRONG LOW PRESSURE NOW OVER EASTERN IOWA WILL MOVE INTO
WISCONSIN BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS STORM WILL BRING PERIODS OF
HEAVY SNOW GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW TO THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH OF MICHIGAN ROUTE 72.

MIZ008-015-021100-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-070303T0000Z/
CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...ST. IGNACE
437 PM EST THU MAR 1 2007

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY. 

LIGHT SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING
BUT BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. BY
FRIDAY EVENING...STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WITH THIS STORM. IN
ADDITION...EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 AND 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL
PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW...LOWERED VISIBILITIES AND WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY
HAZARDOUS.

$$

MIZ016>019-021>024-029-030-021100-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-070302T1200Z/
EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-
ALPENA-OSCODA-ALCONA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...ROGERS CITY...
CHARLEVOIX...MANCELONA...GAYLORD...ATLANTA...ALPENA...MIO...
HARRISVILLE
437 PM EST THU MAR 1 2007

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY. 

PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...POSSIBLY
MIXING WITH SLEET DURING THE EVENING HOURS. BY FRIDAY MORNING...STORM
TOTAL SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW EXPECTED DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...
EASTERLY WINDS OF BETWEEN 15 AND 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL
PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW...LOWERED VISIBILITIES AND WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY
HAZARDOUS.

$$

MIZ020-025>028-031>036-041-042-021100-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-070302T1200Z/
LEELANAU-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-
MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NORTHPORT...FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY...
KALKASKA...GRAYLING...MANISTEE...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY...
HOUGHTON LAKE...WEST BRANCH...TAWAS CITY...GLADWIN...STANDISH
437 PM EST THU MAR 1 2007

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY. 

PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING...TRANSITIONING BACK TO ALL SNOW DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN ADDITION...EAST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH GUSTING
TO 40 MPH WILL PRODUCE SOME BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES...
PARTICULARLY LATER TONIGHT. THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...STORM TOTAL
SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS RANGING FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED...WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS AROUND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY
HAZARDOUS.

$$

ADAM

000 
WWUS43 KAPX 020423
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1123 PM EST THU MAR 1 2007

...MAJOR WINTER STORM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...

.A STRONG LOW PRESSURE NOW ALONG THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
MOVE INTO WISCONSIN BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS STORM WILL BRING
PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW TO THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...
MAINLY SOUTH OF MICHIGAN ROUTE 32.

MIZ008-015-021830-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-070303T0000Z/
CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...ST. IGNACE
1123 PM EST THU MAR 1 2007

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY. 

PERIODS OF SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL FALL ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. BY FRIDAY EVENING...STORM
TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WITH THIS STORM. IN ADDITION...EASTERLY
WINDS OF 25 AND 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW...LOWERED VISIBILITIES AND WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT
TIMES.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY
HAZARDOUS.

$$

MIZ016>019-021>024-029-030-021200-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-070302T1200Z/
EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-
ALPENA-OSCODA-ALCONA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...ROGERS CITY...
CHARLEVOIX...MANCELONA...GAYLORD...ATLANTA...ALPENA...MIO...
HARRISVILLE
1123 PM EST THU MAR 1 2007

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY. 

PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...
MIXING WITH SLEET AT TIMES. BY FRIDAY MORNING...STORM TOTAL SNOW AND
SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH ADDITIONAL
SNOW EXPECTED DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. IN ADDITION... EASTERLY WINDS
OF 25 AND 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW...LOWERED VISIBILITIES AND WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT
TIMES.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY
HAZARDOUS.

$$

MIZ020-025>028-031>036-041-042-021200-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-070302T1200Z/
LEELANAU-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-
MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NORTHPORT...FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY...
KALKASKA...GRAYLING...MANISTEE...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY...
HOUGHTON LAKE...WEST BRANCH...TAWAS CITY...GLADWIN...STANDISH
1123 PM EST THU MAR 1 2007

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY. 

PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA OVERNIGHT...GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING BACK TO ALL SNOW. IN
ADDITION...EAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH GUSTING TO 40 MPH WILL
PRODUCE SOME BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...STORM TOTAL SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS RANGING FROM 3
TO 7 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS AROUND ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY
HAZARDOUS.

$$

MR

000 
WWUS43 KAPX 020927
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
427 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2007

...WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN...

.HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND
NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH DURING THE MID AND LATE MORNING HOURS. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL
TODAY IS EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. IN
ADDITION TO THE HEAVY SNOW...STRONG EAST WINDS GUSTING AT TIMES
OVER 40 MPH WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW...WITH WHITEOUT CONDITIONS IN SOME AREAS. TRAVEL THIS MORNING
ACROSS THESE AREAS WILL BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT.

MIZ020-025>028-031>036-041-042-021030-
/O.CAN.KAPX.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-070302T1200Z/
LEELANAU-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-
MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LELAND...FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY...
KALKASKA...GRAYLING...MANISTEE...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY...
HOUGHTON LAKE...WEST BRANCH...OSCODA...GLADWIN...STANDISH
427 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2007

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
STORM WARNING. 

$$

MIZ008-015-022300-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-070303T0000Z/
CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE MARIE...ST IGNACE
427 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2007

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING...TAPERING OFF TO LIGHTER SNOW SHOWERS AROUND MIDDAY.
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS THIS MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 5
INCHES...WHICH WILL BRING STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS INTO THE
5 TO 10 INCH RANGE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. CONSIDERABLE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED THIS MORNING DUE TO
STRONG EASTERLY WINDS.

IF YOU ARE PLANNING TO TRAVEL...YOU SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SEVERE WINTER
WEATHER CONDITIONS...INCLUDING SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITY.
DRESS WARMLY AND MAKE SURE YOUR CAR IS IN GOOD RUNNING CONDITION.

$$

MIZ016>019-021>024-029-030-021200-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-070302T1200Z/
EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-
ALPENA-OSCODA-ALCONA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PELLSTON...CHEBOYGAN...ROGERS CITY...
CHARLEVOIX...BELLAIRE...GAYLORD...ATLANTA...ALPENA...MIO...
HARRISVILLE
427 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2007

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS
MORNING. 

HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE GENERALLY FROM THE STRAITS OF
MACKINAC SOUTHEAST ALONG THE LAKE HURON SHORE TOWARD ROGERS CITY
AND ALPENA THROUGH DAYBREAK...AFTER WHICH SNOWFALL INTENSITY WILL
DIMINISH. EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW BETWEEN 5 AND
8 AM BEFORE THE SNOW TAPERS OFF. GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

LIGHTER AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED FARTHER SOUTH AROUND CHARLEVOIX...
BELLAIRE...AND GAYLORD...WHERE ANOTHER INCH OR SO OF NEW SNOW IS
EXPECTED THIS MORNING.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY
HAZARDOUS.

$$

JPB

000 
WWUS43 KAPX 021159
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
659 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2007

...WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
MICHIGAN...

.HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY SNOW...STRONG EAST WINDS GUSTING AT
TIMES OVER 30 MPH WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW...WITH WHITEOUT CONDITIONS IN SOME AREAS. TRAVEL THIS MORNING
ACROSS THESE AREAS WILL BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT.

MIZ016>019-021>024-029-030-021300-
/O.CAN.KAPX.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-070302T1200Z/
EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-
ALPENA-OSCODA-ALCONA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PELLSTON...CHEBOYGAN...ROGERS CITY...
CHARLEVOIX...BELLAIRE...GAYLORD...ATLANTA...ALPENA...MIO...
HARRISVILLE
659 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2007

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
STORM WARNING. 


$$

MIZ008-015-022300-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-070303T0000Z/
CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE MARIE...ST IGNACE
659 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2007

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING...TAPERING OFF TO LIGHTER SNOW SHOWERS AROUND MIDDAY.
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS THIS MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO
5 INCHES...WHICH WILL BRING STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS INTO
THE 5 TO 10 INCH RANGE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. CONSIDERABLE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED THIS MORNING DUE TO
STRONG EASTERLY WINDS.

IF YOU ARE PLANNING TO TRAVEL...YOU SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SEVERE
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS...INCLUDING SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR
VISIBILITY. DRESS WARMLY AND MAKE SURE YOUR CAR IS IN GOOD
RUNNING CONDITION.

$$

JPB

000 
WWUS43 KAPX 021653
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1153 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2007


MIZ008-015-021800-
/O.CAN.KAPX.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-070303T0000Z/
CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...ST. IGNACE
1153 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2007

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
STORM WARNING. 

OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
SNOW OVERNIGHT...AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WILL ALSO BE FOUND ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS...AND
VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY ABOVE A MILE. THEREFORE...THE
WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

$$

ADAM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
430 PM EST WED FEB 28 2007

.DISCUSSION...AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALING LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORT WAVE RIDGE ABOUT TO PUSH ACROSS THE STATE...IN ADVANCE OF
STRONG UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE AMPLIFYING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE STILL CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY AND NOSING DOWN ACROSS
THE STATE WITH DRY AIR CIRCULATING DOWN THROUGH ONTARIO AND INTO THE
NE EDGE OF THE CWA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SUNNY SKIES
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AS WELL A DECENT PORTION OF NE LOWER
MICHIGAN. PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN OVER THE REST OF THE
CWA.

REGIONAL RADAR PLOT SHOWING INITIAL BAND OF FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED
PRECIP (850-500MB 2D F-GEN PER 12Z NAM) EXTENDING FROM THE DAKOTAS
AND MINNESOTA...DOWN INTO ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. SOME UPRIGHT
CONVECTION HAS BEEN OCCURRING WITHIN THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS BAND
OVER ILLINOIS INDICATIVE OF THE CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES
ALOFT IN THIS REGION.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN OF COURSE RESIDES WITH THE UPCOMING STORM
SYSTEM...PRECIP TYPE AND SNOW AMOUNTS...TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY.
WILL BE UPGRADING CURRENT WATCH TO A WINTER STORM WARNING WITH THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE TO COVER A MYRIAD OF WINTER WEATHER
HAZARDS (SEE BELOW).

TONIGHT...RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR A GOOD CHUNK
OF THE EVENING AS LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE RIDGE SLIDES OVERHEAD.
WILL HAVE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE NORTH/EAST PART OF THE
CWA/PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WEST. COLDEST TEMPS ANTICIPATED OF
COURSE OVER THE N/E PORTION OF THE CWA...PARTICULARLY IN EASTERN
UPPER...BEFORE THICKENING CLOUD COVER ARRIVES LATER ON. THEN...
AFOREMENTIONED BAND OF FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO
MAKE INROADS INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...F-GEN WEAKENING SOMEWHAT AS IT WORKS NORTHWARD. WILL
MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW AFTER 03Z OR SO IN THE S/SW
COUNTIES TRANSITIONING TO CATEGORICAL LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT. LOWER
CHANCES FOR SNOW AS YOU HEAD NORTH TAPERING TO JUST A CHANCE TO THE
STRAITS. AS FAR AS ACCUMULATIONS ARE CONCERNED...WITH ASCENT
WEAKENING AS IT WORKS NORTH AND A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
WILL HOLD ACCUMULATIONS TO AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS THE S/SW COUNTIES
WHERE ASCENT WILL BE STRONGEST...LESS THAN AN INCH ELSEWHERE.

.MARINE...850 MB WINDS FORECAST RAMP UP TO AROUND 50 KNOTS ON
THURSDAY. WITHIN THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME DO NOT EXPECT ALL
OF THIS WIND TO GET TO THE SFC. BUT GUSTS INTO THE 30-40 KNOT RANGE
CERTAINLY A GOOD POSSIBILITY. THUS WILL ISSUE GALE WARNINGS FOR ALL
THE ACTIVE NEARSHORE MARINE ZONES WITH THE 4 PM FORECAST.

ADAM

LATER PERIODS...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS OBVIOUSLY REVOLVE AROUND THE
MAJOR WINTER STORM...NOW GETTING ITS ACT TOGETHER OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT PLAINS.  MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY...WHICH
PRIMARILY DEALS WITH THIS WINTER STORM...THEN THIS AGREEMENT GOES
DOWN THE TUBES AS THE UPPER AIR FLOW TRANSITIONS TO A ZONAL REGIME
BY MIDWEEK.  A BLEND OF MODELS WERE USED FOR THIS FORECAST THROUGH
SUNDAY...THEN MORE WEIGHT WAS GIVEN TO THE ECMWF PER HPC GUIDANCE
THEREAFTER.

THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION INTENSITY INCREASES FROM SW TO NE OVER THE
COURSE OF THE DAY AS STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE 290-295K
SURFACES AND STRONG -DIV Q MOVES IN.  DRY LOW LEVEL AIR WILL
INITIALLY NEED TO BE OVERCOME...AND WILL KEEP EASTERN UPPER DRY FOR
THE MORNING BEFORE THE PRECIP MOVES IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL START OUT AS SNOW INITIALLY BEFORE WARMER
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR IS DRAWN NORTH AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM
MISSOURI AT 12Z THU TO THE IL/WI BORDER BY EARLY IN THE EVENING.
NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS AGREE PRETTY WELL AND SHOW THE WARM NOSE
REACHES ABOVE 0C SOUTH OF A LINE FROM APPROX PLN TO APN...WHERE SNOW
CRYSTALS WILL PARTIALLY MELT INTO SLEET DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.  SOUTH OF A LINE FROM TVC TO OSCODA...THE WARM NOSE
REACHES AT OR ABOVE +3C WHICH WILL BE ENOUGH TO MELT THE SNOW
CRYSTALS TO LIQUID DROPLETS.  WILL THEREFORE BREAK DOWN THE WEATHER
TYPE GRIDS AS FOLLOWS...SNOW NORTH OF THE FIRST LINE
MENTIONED...FROM PLN TO APN...A MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
BETWEEN THIS LINE AND THE SECOND LINE FROM TVC TO OSC..AND
PREDOMINATELY SLEET/FREEZING RAIN SOUTH OF THIS SECOND LINE.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE TRICKY TOMORROW...AS SUGGESTED
BY MOS GUIDANCE.  MOS SHOWS AREAS FROM BELLAIRE TO OSCODA STANDING A
CHANCE OF GETTING ABOVE FREEZING WHICH WOULD MAKE THE PRECIP TYPE
ALL OF THE LIQUID VARIETY.  BELIEVE IF THIS OCCURS...IT WILL BE OVER
A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...AND NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION RAIN IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS POINT.  ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES
ACROSS THE CWA TOMORROW WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A QUARTER INCH
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES.  IN ADDITION...STRONG WINDS
GUSTING TO 30 MPH WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND DANGEROUS
TRAVELING CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...SURFACE LOW OCCLUDES AND SLOWS DOWN...MAKING IT TO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY 12Z FRI.  MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW
MIXED PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA DURING THE
EVENING...BEFORE COLD ADVECTION COOLS THE WARM NOSE BELOW FREEZING
BY MIDNIGHT.  ADDITIONALLY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE DRY SLOT
PUSHING NORTHWARD AND ENTERING THE CWA BY LATE IN THE EVENING...AND
PERHAPS A TRANSITION TO FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER WHERE SOUNDINGS
SHOW MOISTURE EXTENDS UP TO -10C.  THEREFORE...WE WILL SEE THE
HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OCCUR DURING THE EVENING...AND ALSO OVER
EASTERN UPPER WHERE THE DRY SLOT WILL ARRIVE THE LATEST.  WILL GO
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE RANGE OF 1-4 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA...AND 3-6 INCHES TO THE NORTH.  WINDS WILL ALSO BE
STRONGEST DURING THE EVENING BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

FRIDAY...OCCLUDED CYCLONE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FROM SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN TO CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN.  BEST FORCING IN THE FORM OF
-DIV Q AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TO START
THE DAY.  WRAP AROUND DEEP MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE BACK INTO
NORTHERN LOWER DURING THE MORNING AS THE DRY SLOW ROTATES AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHEAST.  WITHIN THE DRY SLOT...MOISTURE
STRUGGLES TO REACH THE MAGICAL -10C ISOTHERM...WHICH IS THE
TEMPERATURE WHERE ICE NUCLEI HAS A GREATER PROBABLY TO BE
ACTIVATED.  HAVE THEREFORE THOUGHT ABOUT ADDING FREEZING DRIZZLE
WORDING TO AREAS NORTH OF M-68 DURING THE MORNING...BUT FOR
SIMPLICITY SAKE...HAVE KEPT THE WORDING AS PERIODS OF SNOW WHICH
WILL BE THE CASE IF THE MOISTURE IS ONLY SLIGHTLY DEEPER.  WITH THE
DEEP MOISTURE MOVING BACK IN...HAVE TRIED TO SHOW SLIGHTLY HIGHER
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT A GENERAL 1 TO 3
INCHES IS ABOUT THE RANGE WE SHOULD SEE.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MEANDERING OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS
ACROSS THE CWA AS IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND FINALLY ENTERS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO BY SATURDAY EVENING.  ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE IS IN PLACE
OVER THE ENTIRE TIME PERIOD...PRECIP INTENSITY WILL BE DECREASING AS
THE STORM WEAKENS AND THE INSTABILITY WITHIN THE UPPER LOW MOVES
EAST.  1000-850MB WINDS SHIFT TO THE NNW BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW AS
850MB TEMPERATURES SLIDE INTO THE NEGATIVE MIDDLE TEENS...BRINGING
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BACK INTO PLAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN UPPER AND
NORTHWEST LOWER. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHTER COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS DAY...MAYBE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO WITH THE HIGHER
ACCUMULATIONS OVER NNW FLOW LAKE EFFECT AREAS.  LOWS IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...OVERALL PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES AS
POSITIVE 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES SUBSIDE OVER HUDSON BAY AND GET
REPLACED BY A STRONG POLAR VORTEX WHICH WILL EXTEND OVER THE
NORTHERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TO CREATE A POSITIVE NAO PATTERN.
ADDITIONALLY...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH LOOKS TO REMAIN WEST OF ALASKA
WHICH WILL SET UP A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA.  SO FOR THE DETAILS...CLOSED LOW
MOVES SLOWLY NE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WHILE LOW LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.  850MB TEMPERATURES
RANGING BETWEEN -10C AND -15C (COLDER IN THE GFS AS USUAL) ALONG
WITH NW FLOW WILL ALLOW LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY.  MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS REBOUND ON MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ACROSS ONTARIO.  THIS WAVE WILL SEND A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THE MODELS ARE HAVING A
DIFFICULT TIME AGREEING ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF ITS PASSAGE.
ECMWF HAS BEEN PERSISTENT SHOWING A MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION AND
CONSEQUENTLY BRINGING IN A QUICKER PASSAGE AND COLDER AIR.  THE
CANADIAN IS ALSO ON BOARD WITH THIS SOLUTION...WHILE THE GFS/GFS
ENSEMBLE ARE NOT. HAVE BROAD BRUSHED SKY/WX/POPS MONDAY ONWARD AS
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

MPC

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING FOR MIZ016>036-041-042.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR MIZ008-015.

GALE WARNING FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ALL
NEARSHORE MARINE ZONES.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
525 AM EST WED FEB 28 2007

LHZ345>349-361-362-LMZ323-341-342-344-345-363-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-
015>036-041-042-011100-
STRAITS OF MACKINAC-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
MACKINAC BRDG TO PRESQUE ISLE LT-PRESQUE ISLE LT TO STURGEON PT-
STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER-MICHIGAN WATERS OF NORTHERN LAKE HURON-
MICHIGAN WATERS OF CENTRAL LAKE HURON-GRAND TRAVERSE BAY-
SEUL CHOIX PT TO MACKINAC BRDG-NORWOOD TO MACKINAC BRDG-
SLEEPING BEAR PT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LT-MANISTEE TO SLEEPING BEAR PT-
MICHIGAN WATERS OF NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN-WHITEFISH BAY-
ST. MARYS RIVER-CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-
CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-
GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-
MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC-
525 AM EST WED FEB 28 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON...LAKE
MICHIGAN...LAKE SUPERIOR...EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY AFFECT
THE REGION INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW
AND/OR ICE ACCUMULATION. IN ADDITION...STRONG AND GUSTY EASTERLY
WINDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW...LOWERED
VISIBILITIES AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES. SEE ONGOING
WINTER STORM WATCHES FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

GALES ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OPEN LAKES AND NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...LAKE HURON AND LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE RELAY SNOW/ICE ACCUMULATIONS
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD.

AJS