Wind Advisory 9, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 090612
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1012 PM ADT MON OCT 8 2007

AKZ027-090715-
/X.CAN.PAJK.WI.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-071009T0800Z/
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRAIG...KLAWOCK
1012 PM ADT MON OCT 8 2007

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 

WINDS AND WIND GUSTS ARE NO LONGER REACING ADVISORY LEVELS.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM ADT MON OCT 8 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...AT 1800 UTC A 999 MB LOW 300 NM SOUTH OF SITKA HAS
A BAND OF CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION EXTENDING OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE
DECTECTED EARLIER THIS MORNING NEAR THE COAST AND EXTREME SOUTH
BUT NOT IN THE LAST FEW HOURS. THERE IS STILL SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY WHICH COULD GENERATE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
YET THIS AFTERNOON.

THE LOW HAS SLOWED ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS SIGNIFICANTLY AND
APPEARS TO BE CURVING TO THE NORTHWEST BUT THE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE ITS NORTHWARD ADVANCE OVER THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE TONIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME PRECIPITATION SHOULD
TAPER OFF IN THE SOUTH.

FURTHER SOUTH IN THE PACIFIC...A MAJOR LOW IS DEVELOPING WEST OF
THE WA/OR COAST. MODELS VARY IN THE DEPTH OF THIS SYSTEM AND IN
THE SPEED AT WHICH IT WEAKENS AND MOVES NORTHWARD. PREFER THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR BEST COMPROMISE. PRESSURE FALLS FROM THIS LOW
WILL PRODUCE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS THROUGHOUT SOUTHEAST
ALASKA TUE WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING IN NORTHERN SECTIONS. A WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE B.C. COAST WITH
PRECIPITATION REACHING THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BY TUE NIGHT.

.LONG RANGE...THE OPERATIONAL MODELS THIS MORNING ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK THEN THEY DIVERGE FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH THE THE WEEKEND. SO WITH THAT SAID WILL MAKE MINOR
CHANGES THROUGH THURSDAY AND NO CHANGES THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST TUE EVENING
WILL WEAKEN TO A TROF AS IT LIFTS NORTH OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS
BY WED AFTERNOON. THIS LOW/TROF WILL GET PUSHED EAST BY ANOTHER
UPPER TROF SWINGING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AS IT LIFTS OVER THE
PANHANDLE FROM THE PARENT LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AK. ZONAL FLOW
WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY BUT A VERY STRONG FAST MOVING
DEVELOPING LOW WILL LIFT OUT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC AND INTO THE
GULF BY FRI AND DISSIPATE IN THE NORTHERN GULF BY SAT EVENING. A
UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN IN THE GULF THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND.

A 971 MB LOW OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST TUE EVENING WILL LIFT NORTH
THROUGH WED AND SLOWLY WEAKEN. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL
BE OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS TUE NIGHT AND WILL SLOWLY LIFT
NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL FALL APART OVER THE
PANHANDLE THROUGH WED SO THINK THE RAIN WILL BE SPOTTY BUT THERE
IS A UPPER TROF MOVING OVER THE PANHANDLE AT THE SAME TIME SO
SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY AS THIS WILL KEEP ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE
AREA. WINDS WITH THIS LOW WILL BE THE STRONGEST OVER THE SOUTHERN
AREAS BUT AT THE MOST THERE WILL BE SMALL CRAFTS OVER THE INNER
CHANNELS WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS OVER THE LAND AREAS. SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING BUT THEY
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY AS
MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE LIFTING INTO THE
NORTHERN INTERIOR.

FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A VERY
STRONG 965 MB SURFACE LOW TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL BY FRIDAY
EVENING WITH IT ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT OVER THE PANHANDLE
DURING FRI. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF STORM
FORCE/STRONG GALE WINDS TO THE OUTSIDE WATERS AND GALES IN
EAST/WEST CHANNELS AND SMALL CRAFTS ELSEWHERE. COASTAL LAND AREAS
COULD SEE STRONG GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND OTHER PLACES IN THE INNER
CHANNELS. SEAS ALONG THE COAST WATERS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 15 FT.
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MODERATE TO HEAVY AS IT WILL HAVE SOME
TROPICAL INFLUENCES. THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRACK AND
DEPTH OF THE LOW SO AT THIS TIME THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE
DETAILS.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY PKZ036-041>043
CFD