Storm Warning 3, NWS Fairbanks, AK

000
FZAK52 PAFG 182145
CWFWCZ

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
145 PM ADT TUE SEP 18 2007

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-191245-
145 PM ADT TUE SEP 18 2007

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 968 MB LOW 250 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND
WILL MOVE TO NORTON SOUND BY 4 PM THURSDAY WEAKENING
TO 994 MB.

$$

PKZ200-191245-
NORTON SOUND-
145 PM ADT TUE SEP 18 2007

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.  
.WED NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS.  
.THU...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.  
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.FRI...SW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.FRI NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.SAT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.SUN...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-191245-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
145 PM ADT TUE SEP 18 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 30 KT...BECOMING SE 20 KT FROM
SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND WEST. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...SE WINDS 25 KT...EXCEPT NE 15 KT FROM SAINT LAWRENCE
ISLAND WEST. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.FRI...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
.FRI NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
.SAT...S WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  
.SUN...SE WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-191245-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
145 PM ADT TUE SEP 18 2007

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING.  
.WED NIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.THU...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.FRI...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.FRI NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.SAT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.SUN...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ220-191245-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
145 PM ADT TUE SEP 18 2007

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT.  
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.THU...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING.  
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.FRI...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.FRI NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
.SAT...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
.SUN...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

RF SEP 07

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1218 PM ADT MON SEP 17 2007

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST US/EUROPEAN MODEL RUNS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE
IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 12Z THU. A 1028 MB HIGH
450 MILES NORTH OF THE MACKENZIE RIVER DELTA WILL MOVE TO 250
MILES NORTHEAST OF GREAT SLAVE LAKE BY 12Z WED.

GFS/NAM VERIFYING VERY WELL ON POSITION OF STORM SOUTH
OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS...NEAR 54.0N/174.5E. 18Z POSITION
NOT AVAILABLE FROM ECMWF...BUT IT APPEARS TO BE VERIFYING
VERY WELL ALSO...INTERPOLATING BETWEEN 12Z AND 00Z POSITIONS.

PROGGED POSITIONS AND CENTRAL PRESSURES OF STORM IN
THE BERING SEA...

SEP 18/00Z     50.5N/177.5E    960 MB
SEP 18/12Z     54.0N/177.5W    965 MB
SEP 19/00Z     58.0N/175.5W    970 MB
SEP 19/12Z     60.0N/173.0W    975 MB    NEAR ST MATTHEW ISLAND
SEP 20/00Z     62.0N/169.0W    985 MB    75 MI WEST OF DALL POINT
SEP 20/12Z     63.0N/163.5W    990 MB    NEAR PASTOL BAY

EASTERLY GALES WILL DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF PKZ210
THIS EVENING...SPREADING TO ALL OF PKZ210 AND PKZ200 LATE
TONIGHT.

OVER NORTON SOUND...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING
TO 35 KT LATE TONIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH TUE MORNING.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH A LITTLE TUE AFTERNOON
THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY AND CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TUE NIGHT.
THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
OF HIGH STORM SURGES. MAXIMUM STORM SURGES ALONG THE
NORTHERN SHORE OF NORTON SOUND ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE RANGE OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET MID DAY WED THROUGH WED
AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM SEAS IN NORTON SOUND ARE BE EXPECTED
TO BE 8 TO 9 FEET IN AREAS FROM NOME WESTWARD. MAXIMUM
SEAS IN THE EASTERN PARTS OF NORTON SOUND ARE EXPECTED TO
BE A LITTLE LESS...5 TO 8 FEET...DUE TO THE SMALLER FETCH.

IN THE KIVALINA AND RED DOG PORT AREAS...
EAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 25 KT LATE MON
NIGHT AND TO 35 KT TUE MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH
TUE AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING A LITTLE TOWARDS SOUTHEAST
AND BEGINNING TO DIMINISH TUE EVENING. MAXIMUM SEAS
OF 8-10 FEET ARE EXPECTED...BUT WITH EAST WINDS...
THE HIGHEST WAVES WILL LIKELY REMAIN OFFSHORE. MAXIMUM STORM
SURGE IS EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 0.5 FOOT.

RAIN SPREADING TO SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND-ZONE 214-
SOUTHERN ZONE 212-SOUTHWEST PARTS OF ZONE 215
LATE TONIGHT. BY TUE AFTERNOON...RAIN WILL COVER
ALL WEST COAST AREAS FROM KOTZEBUE SOUTH AND MOST
OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR. 12-HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 0.5 INCH OR MORE ARE LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHERN
WEST COAST ZONES AND THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
WESTERN INTERIOR TUE. FOR TUE NIGHT...12 HOUR
RAILFALLS OF 0.5 TO 1 INCH MAY OCCUR THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR. MAXIMUM
24 HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE WEST COAST AND IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR MAY
BE IN THE RANGE OF 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NONE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN ZONES 222-226 OVER THE WEEKEND WILL
RESULT IN GENERAL RISES IN THE LEVELS OF THE LARGER RIVERS.
RIVERS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220.
&&

RF SEP 07