Storm Warning 206, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 260043
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST TUE DEC 25 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-261500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 992 MB LOW 180 NM SOUTH OF YAKUTAT WILL WEAKEN TO 1005 MB AND MOVE
ONSHORE NEAR SITKA TUE NIGHT. A 995 MB LOW NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL
WEAKEN TO 1006 MB TUE NIGHT THEN DISSIPATE WED MORNING. A 971 MB LOW
SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE TO 100 NM WEST OF KODIAK
CITY WITH A 969 MB CENTER THU AFTERNOON. A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF FROM THE SOUTH THU AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ120-261500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AST TUE DEC 25 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 17
FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-261500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AST TUE DEC 25 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-261500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AST TUE DEC 25 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WEDNESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT THROUGH WESTERN BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT IN THE MORNING OUT OF BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-261500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AST TUE DEC 25 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-261500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AST TUE DEC 25 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS
TO 60 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 19 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. BECOMING E 20 KT EAST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-261500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AST TUE DEC 25 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.
SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.THU...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-261500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AST TUE DEC 25 2007

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO 40 KT
OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE EVENING. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-261500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AST TUE DEC 25 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT EXCEPT NW WIND 35 KT IN THE EVENING SOUTH OF
KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS 7 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS.  

$$

PKZ141-261500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AST TUE DEC 25 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO 45
KT NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AST MON DEC 24 2007

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
STRONG LOW NEAR KODIAK ISLAND WITH VERY STRONG WINDS AND
PRECIPITATION AROUND THE GULF INTO THE KENAI PENINSULA AND ALONG THE
ALEUTIAN RANGE. JET WELL TO THE SOUTH BUT PLENTY OF BAROCLINICITY
WITH THE LOW. STRONG COLD FRONT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WEST OF
THE ALEUTIAN RANGE. THIS IS FED BY THE COLD CORE UPPER LOW NEAR THE
BERING STRAIT. MANY BLIZZARD WARNINGS IN EFFECT AROUND THE LOW
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME AREAS OF HEAVY SNOW ALSO OCCURING. THIS
LOW IS TIED TO AN UPPER LOW SWINGING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GULF. THE
UPPER AND SURFACE LOW TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. THIS ALLOWS THE STRONG COLD FRONT BEHIND THE LOW TO MOVE
ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN RANGE. THIS WILL BRING STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS TO THE ALEUTIAN RANGE AND WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF. THIS WILL
LIKELY CREATE MORE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER TO
THE EAST TOMORROW...STRONG GAP WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE KENAI
PENINSULA WITH POCKETS OF NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
BIG PICTURE...LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE BERING TO MOVE OVER THE
MAINLAND THIS WEEKEND. CURRENT TRACK OF STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE GULF
BUT BY THE END OF THE WEEK STORMS MORE LIKELY TO SWING INTO THE
PANHANDLE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTH CENTRAL...
MANY ADVISORIES...WATCHES AND WARNINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE
GULF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW. THE STRONG LOW NEAR KODIAK
ISLAND TO SWING EAST THROUGH THE GULF TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE TOMORROW
NIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME...STRONG WINDS TO ENCIRCLE THIS LOW WITH
PLENTY OF PRECIPITATION AS WELL. ENOUGH WINDS AND PRECIP FOR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS OVER KODIAK ISLAND AND PORTAGE VALLEY. HEAVY ENOUGH PRECIP
FOR HEAVY SNOW CONDITIONS NEAR KACHEMAK BAY. COLD AIR IS BACKED UP AT
THE ALEUTIAN RANGE WITH THIS LOW IN THE GULF. WITH SOME RAIN AND SNOW
MIX NEAR KODIAK CITY...A PRETTY STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT HAS SET UP.
AS THE LOW SWINGS EAST TONIGHT...THIS WILL LEAD TO A STRONG WESTERLY
WIND DEVELOPING OUT OF THE GAPS OF THE ALEUTIAN RANGE AND SPREAD OVER
KODIAK ISLAND AND THE BARREN ISLANDS TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL MOVE NEAR
YAKUTAT TOMORROW WITH MORE GAP WINDS AND STRONG WESTERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING OVER COOK INLET AND THE KENAI PENINSULA. IN ADDITION...THE
WRAP AROUND FROM THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH MOISTURE INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL TOMORROW...BUT THE COLD ADVECTION WILL CREATE AREAS OF
OVERRUNNING PRECIP EARLY TOMORROW BEFORE BEGINNING TO SWITCH TO
WESTERLY. ONE OF THESE AREAS WILL BE THE ANCHORAGE BOWL.
THEREFORE...HAVE DECIDED A SNOW ADVISORY IS NECESSARY FOR THE
ANCHORAGE AREA TOMORROW WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE HILLSIDE
DUE TO THE UPSLOPE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS. THE LOW TO DISSIPATE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...SO PRECIP AND WINDS WILL BE
ON THE DOWNTURN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
THE STRONG LOW NEAR KODIAK ALSO IS EFFECTING THE AREAS NEAREST THE
ALEUTIAN RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME PRECIP TO SPREAD INTO
THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY TONIGHT AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE LOW WITH
THE TROWAL. STRONG SURFACE WINDS NEAR THE ALEUTIAN RANGE IN SOUTHWEST
ALASKA CREATING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS NEAR ILIAMNA THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING. THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA WILL BE SPARED ANY
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS LOW. HOWEVER...A LOW MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
BERING TO BRING PRECIP AND SOME MODERATE WINDS TO THE COAST LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. AS THE LOW PULLS TO THE EAST
TOMORROW...PRECIP TO WANE OVER THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA.

ALEUTIANS AND BERING...
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING BEHIND THE LOW
NEAR KODIAK CREATING STRONG NORTH WINDS OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. A
SMALLER LOW WORKING EAST ACROSS THE BERING HAS PASSED THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS AND WILL MOVE TO THE COAST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...MODERATE
WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE BERING WITH SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TOMORROW.
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO APPROACH THE CENTRAL ALEUTIAN CHAIN
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL WARMER TEMPERATURES AND SOME RAINFALL BY
TOMORROW NIGHT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
BEYOND TOMORROW...THE COLD BERING STRAIT LOW TO RETROGRADE INTO
SIBERIA WITH A LOW WORKING TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY. THIS
BRINGS US TO THE UNCERTAINTY PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE EUROPEAN
MODELS PUSH THIS LOW IN BRISTOL BAY FRIDAY...WHEREAS THE GFS AND A
MAJORITY OF ITS ENSEMBLES BRING IT INTO THE GULF. THE RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN A BIT BETTER WITH THE GFS...SO LEANED TOWARD
THIS SOLUTION WITH A DECAYING LOW IN THE GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 161 171 THROUGH MIDNIGHT
                          125 THROUGH 3 AM AKST TONIGHT
                          121 TOMORROW
         HEAVY SNOW WARNING 121 THOUGH 9 PM AKST TONIGHT
         BLIZZARD WATCH 125 TOMORROW
         SNOW ADVISORY 101 TOMORROW
MARINE...HURRICANE 130 132
         STORM 120 138 140 150
         GALE 121 125 129 141 155 160 165 170 171 172 175 179
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 130 132 138 140 141 150 160 165
                              180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JN DEC 07