Storm Warning 167, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 230017
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AST SAT DEC 22 2007

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-231500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 963 MB LOW NEAR 51N 145W THIS EVENING MOVES TO 56N 137W AT 971 MB
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS CENTER MOVES INLAND SOUTH OF SITKA SUNDAY
NIGHT. A 972 MB LOW NEAR 54N 161W SUNDAY NIGHT MOVES TO 54N 153W AT
979 MB MONDAY AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY 978 MB LOW MOVES TO OVER
SHELIKOF STRAIT MONDAY. 

$$

PKZ351-231500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AST SAT DEC 22 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 FT.
RAIN. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 FT.
RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
18 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED AND THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-231500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AST SAT DEC 22 2007

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 
16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
20 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 231227
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AST SUN DEC 23 2007

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-240300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 961 MB LOW NEAR 54N 142W WILL MOVE INLAND NEAR SITKA SUNDAY
EVENING. A 985 MB LOW NEAR 49N 173W WILL STRENGTHEN TO 976 MB NEAR
KODIAK ISLAND MONDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL THEN MOVE INLAND NEAR
SEWARD AT 987 MB MONDAY NIGHT.
$$

PKZ351-240300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AST SUN DEC 23 2007

...STORM WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE TO NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT INCREASING TO W WIND 35 TO 45 KT
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 12 TO 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 25 TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 40 TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 45 TO 55 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-240300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AST SUN DEC 23 2007

...STORM WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE TO NW WIND 30 TO 40 KT INCREASING TO NW 40 TO 50 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 14 TO 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE 35 TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...SE WIND 40 TO 50 KT BECOMING SW 30 TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 240006
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AST SUN DEC 23 2007

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-241500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 961 MB LOW NEAR 54N 142W WILL MOVE INLAND NEAR SITKA SUNDAY
EVENING. A 985 MB LOW NEAR 49N 173W WILL STRENGTHEN TO 976 MB NEAR
KODIAK ISLAND MONDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL THEN MOVE INLAND NEAR
SEWARD AT 987 MB MONDAY NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ351-241500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AST SUN DEC 23 2007

...STORM WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 26 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...W WIND 55 KT. SEAS 33 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.WED AND THU...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-241500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AST SUN DEC 23 2007

...STORM WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 45 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 26 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 30 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 241216
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AST MON DEC 24 2007

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-250300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 981 MB LOW NEAR 54N 155W WILL STRENGTHEN TO 972 MB NEAR KODIAK
ISLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND WEAKENING
TO 989 MB NEAR 59N 143W TUESDAY EVENING. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE
INLAND AND DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
COAST.
$$

PKZ351-250300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AST MON DEC 24 2007

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 TO 55 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT SHIFTING TO W 35 TO 55 KT TOWARD MORNING. 
SEAS 22 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...W WIND 45 TO 55 KT. SEAS 26 FT. SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-250300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AST MON DEC 24 2007

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 40 TO 50 KT BY LATE MORNING. 
SEAS 15 TO 21 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SW TO NW WIND 50 TO 65 KT. SEAS 20 TO 30 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.

.TUE...W WIND 55 KT. SEAS 30 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST FRI DEC 21 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...GFS OVERALL IS THE PREFERRED MODEL. THE NAM HAS
FINALLY ADJUSTED POSITION OF STRONG LOW OVER THE GULF THIS MORNING
AND HAS A REASONABLE TRACK THROUGH TONIGHT. FORECAST PACKAGES IN
GENERAL WILL BE BASED ON THE 12Z GFS RUN WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS. THE
EXCEPTION...THE NAM HIGHER RESOLUTION WILL BE USED FOR THE SHORT-TERM
IN THE EAST DOMAIN. THE GFS MADE A MAJOR CHANGE IN SHIFTING THE NEXT
NPAC STORM WELL SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS MON. THIS CHANGE WAS CONTINUED
ON THE 12Z RUN ALSO...SO WILL CONTINUE TO BLEND TOWARD THIS SOLUTION.

.ANALYSIS...A 970S LOW NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND THIS MORNING MOVES INTO
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WEAKENS INLAND TONIGHT.
THE 970S LOW CENTER NEAR COLD BAY THIS AFTERNOON MAINTAINS INTENSITY
AS IT MOVES INTO BRISTOL BAY SAT AFTERNOON. THIS CENTER WEAKENS AS IT
MOVES ONTO THE SW MAINLAND SUN. ASSOCIATED FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING
OVER BRISTOL BAY TO JUST WEST OF KODIAK ISLAND MOVES ALONG THE SW
ALASKA COAST/KODIAK ISLAND THIS EVENING. FRONT WEAKENS OVER SW ALASKA
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE EAST AND SOUTH PORTION OF THE FRONT CLEARS
KODIAK ISLAND EARLY SAT MORNING AND MOVES INTO SOUTHCENTRAL SAT.
SURFACE FEATURES WEAKEN OVER THE MAINLAND SUN. HOWEVER...THE BROAD
UPPER TROUGH LIKELY TO KEEP THE MENTION OF SNOW OR SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STRONG NPAC CENTER MOVES TO SE OF
KODIAK ISLAND MON MORNING.

.EAST...NOT LOOKING FOR MAJOR SNOW AMOUNTS OVER SOUTHCENTRAL/NORTH
GULF THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT AS WEAKENING GULF STORM MOVES INLAND.
HIGHEST VALUES...WHICH WILL BE WELL BELOW WARNING LEVELS..LIKELY OVER
ZONES 125...131...AND 145. MAIN REASONING IS LACK OF STRONG DYNAMICS
AND RELATIVELY SHORT RESIDENCE TIME. FOR COOK INLET/ANCHORAGE
BOWL...LACK OF STRONG OVERRUNNING AND COLD ADVECTION. SNOW OVER MOST
AREAS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE
INTERIOR. ANOTHER SHOT AT SNOW LIKELY AGAIN ON OVER SOUTHCENTRAL AND
THE WESTERN GULF SAT AND SAT NIGHT AS WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH ASSOCIATED
WITH BRISTOL BAY LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER
KACHEMAK BAY COULD BE INTERESTING SAT...ALTHOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
NOT AS INTENSE AS THIS LAST EVENT. MORNING SOUNDING FROM ANCHORAGE
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE REGION SHOW SIGNIFICANT WARMING
OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TOWARD MORE
SEASONABLE VALUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEXT NPAC STORM ENTERING THE
GULF MON WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINDS AND WARMING TEMPS.

.WEST...STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE BERING SEA WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. SAT PIC SHOWS EXTENSIVE OPEN/CLOSED CELL CU OVER MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL BERING SEA. EXPECT PERIODIC BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH SNOW
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE PRIBILOFS INTO TONIGHT. SNOW WILL
SPREAD INTO SW ALASKA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH APPROACH OF
FRONTAL TROUGH OVER BRISTOL BAY. TRAILING LOW MOVING INTO SW ALASKA
SUN MORNING WILL LIKELY HOLD THREAT OF SNOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIND
CHILLS WILL MODERATE SOME TONIGHT OVER THE DELTA AS WEAK WARM
ADVECTION. AREAS WEST OF BETHEL LIKELY TO HAVE TO LOWEST WIND CHILL.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING ZONE 195
MARINE...GALES 155 172 175 179 AND 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC DEC 07