Storm Warning 145, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 261340 CCA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AST MON NOV 26 2007

CORRECTED HEADLINE 141

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-270300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 971 MB LOW NEAR KODIAK ISLAND WILL WEAKEN TO 1004 MB 100 NM SOUTH
OF CAPE SUCKLING TUESDAY EVENING AND DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. A
WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF TUESDAY AND TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN GULF TUESDAY NIGHT.
$$

PKZ120-270300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AST MON NOV 26 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  
$$

PKZ121-270300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AST MON NOV 26 2007

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ125-270300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AST MON NOV 26 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO SE 25 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT
SUBSIDING TO 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

PKZ129-270300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AST MON NOV 26 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT AND TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ130-270300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AST MON NOV 26 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 45 KT BECOMING W WIND 30 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 22 FT
SUBSIDING TO 17 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  
$$

PKZ132-270300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AST MON NOV 26 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT SUBSIDING TO 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 25 FT.  
$$

PKZ138-270300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AST MON NOV 26 2007

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO W 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  
$$

PKZ140-270300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AST MON NOV 26 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  
$$

PKZ141-270300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AST MON NOV 26 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT
SUBSIDING TO 4 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 270004
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST MON NOV 26 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-271500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 995 MB LOW 90 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL MOVE TO 200 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND MON NIGHT THEN WILL DISSIPATE TUE
MORNING. A WEAK 1002 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP 180 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK
CITY AND WILL MOVE TO NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND AND WEAKEN TO 1020 MB 
WED AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ120-271500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AST MON NOV 26 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-271500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AST MON NOV 26 2007

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.WED THROUGH SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-271500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AST MON NOV 26 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-271500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AST MON NOV 26 2007

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT BY MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.WED THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-271500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AST MON NOV 26 2007

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 20 KT BY MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-271500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AST MON NOV 26 2007

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 
17 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-271500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AST MON NOV 26 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT.
RAIN. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-271500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AST MON NOV 26 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-271500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AST MON NOV 26 2007

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
115 PM AST SUN NOV 25 2007

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...IN THE UPPER ELEVLS THERE IS A HIGH
AMPLITUDE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CENETRED OVER THE BERING SEA AND NORTH
PACIFIC WITH A RIDGE CENETRED OVER THE WESTERN US/CANADA. A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL JET EXTENDS ALONG THE NORTH PACIFIC NEAR 30N TO 180 AND
THEN CURVES NORTHEASTWARD UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE INTO THE
GULF OF ALASKA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE PLUME OF
MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED FROM THE WESTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC TO THE
GULF OF ALASKA...FEEDING INTO A STRONG LOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN
GULF. THIS IS ONE OF THREE VERY STRONG LOWS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
LONG-WAVE TROUGH. WITH A FAIRLY WARM AIR MASS OVER THE REGION MUCH
OF PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THE BIG STORY WITH THIS LOW
IS THE WINDS WITH WIDESPREAD STORM FORCE WINDS BEING OBSERVED ACROSS
THE GULF WATERS. AS FRONT APPROACHES NORTHERN GULF THIS AFTERNOON
EXPECT WINDS TO REACH HURRICANE FORCE FROM THE NORTH GULF COAST TO
THE BARREN ISLANDS REGION...ESPECIALLY THROUGH CHANNELED AREAS. THE
AMATULI ISLAND C-MAN STATION HAS ALREADY OBSERVED A PEAK WIND OF 64
KT. HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTAGE VALLEY AND TURNAGAIN
ARM. LIKE THE PAST COUPLE SYSTEMS EXPECT THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
OBSERVED AT PORTAGE AS THE FRONT NEARS. TILTING OF ISOBARS TO A NW
TO SE ORIENTATION HAS REDUCE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS TURNAGAIN
ARM SO THAT WESTERN TURNAGAIN ARM WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY
THIS MORNING. THE OTHER TWO LOWS HAVE SURFACE PRESSURES DOWN IN THE
LOWER 970S...BUT ARE HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON THE ANCHORAGE FORECAST
AREA. ONE LOW IS WEST OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND THE OTHER IS ABOUT
500 MILES SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THE LATTER LOW IS THE ONE
TO WATCH BECAUSE IT HAS COLD AIR FEEDING IN THE BACK SIDE OF IT AS
WELL AS GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...NONE OF THE MODELS INITIALIZED THE GULF LOW VERY
WELL. NAM MODEL WAS CLOSEST ON THE POSITION WITH THE OTHER MODELS
TOO FAR NORTH AND WEST...SO PREFER IT FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS OR SO.
AFTER THIS GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN MOVING THE LOW OVER KODIAK
ISLAND AND THEN MAKING A SHARP TURN IN DIRECTION BY MOVING THE LOW
OFF TO THE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF ON MONDAY. THIS MAKES SENSE
AS RIDGE BUILDING AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS
PUSHES EVERYTHING EASTWARD. UKMET MATCHES UP WITH GFS WHILE NAM/ECMWF
WEAKEN LOW OVER COOK INLET. SINCE ALMOST ALL GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBER SHOW
A SIMILAR TRACK AS OPERATIONAL GFS DECIDED TO GO WITH THAT SOLUTION.
ALSO WENT HEAVILY TOWARD NEW GFS SOLUTION WITH SYSTEMS OUT WEST.
MODELS ARE ALL IN THE SAME GENERAL REGION FOR TRACK AND DEPTH OF
LOWS SO FELT IT WAS PRUDENT TO GO WITH NEW SOLUTION THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS BLENDED FAIRLY WELL INTO THE EXISTING EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL...LOTS OF WINDS AND RAIN ALONG THE GULF COASTAL REGION.
DO NOT EXPECT AND FLOODING PROBLEMS BECAUSE SMALL STREAMS HAVE HAD A
LONG ENOUGH BREAK IN RAIN TO DRAIN MUCH OF THEIR WATER. WILL HOWEVER
MONITOR RAINFALL RATES AND STREAM LEVELS CLOSELY. HIGH WIND WARNINGS
FOR TURNAGAIN ARM/PORTAGE VALLEY (ZONE 101 AND 125) CURRENTLY GO
THROUGH 10 PM...BUT IF LOW REALLY MAKES IT TO SOUTHERN COOK
INLET/BARREN ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THESE WINDS
TO LAST LONGER...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN TURNAGAIN ARM. THERE WILL
BE A BRIEF SHOT OF PRECIP LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS UPPER
SHORT-WAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALONG WITH REMNANTS OF THE
FRONT...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME WHAT WILL STILL BE SOME
FAIRLY STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT
OF PRECIP FOR INLAND AREAS AS UPPER LOW OPENS INTO A TROUGH AND THEN
PUSHES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OTHERWISE...ALL OF SOUTHCENTRAL WILL DRY OUT MONDAY NIGHT.
MORE COASTAL RAIN LIKELY TUESDAY WITH FRONT MOVING IN FROM ALEUTIANS
SYSTEM...WHILE INLAND AREAS REMAIN DRY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...COASTAL PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST WILL SEE ONLY BRIEF
BREAKS BETWEEN SYSTEMS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SO LOOK FOR MULTIPLE SHOTS
OF PRECIP AND WIND. INLAND OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY WILL REMAIN
DRIER DUE TO DOWNSLOPING WINDS MUCH OF THE TIME.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MOST UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN OVER
EASTERN HALF OF THE BERING SEA REGION THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS STORM
SYSTEMS TRACK UP INTO THE EASTERN BERING. WITH ONE LOW AFTER ANOTHER
EXPECT RAPIDLY CHANGING CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...MODELS INDICATE MEAN TROUGH RETROGRADING
SLIGHTLY WESTWARD WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE EAST PACIFIC
NORTHWARD OVER MAINLAND ALASKA. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO
DEVELOPMENT OF AN OMEGA BLOCK...MEANING COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 101 AND 125.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING 120 130.
         STORM WARNING 125 132 138 140 141.
         GALE WARNING 129 150 155 160 165 170 172 175.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB NOV 07