Storm Warning 112, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 221211
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AST THU NOV 22 2007

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-230300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 988 MB LOW AT 54N 153W EARLY THIS MORNING MOVES TO 57N 157W AT 
984 MB MIDDAY...THEN TO NEAR DILLINGHAM AT 983 MB THIS AFTERNOON. 
A 973 MB LOW MOVES NORTH TO 50N 177E THIS EVENING...THEN TO 52N 173E
AT 960 MB FRI MORNING. THE LOW THEN REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH
FRI NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-230300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AST THU NOV 22 2007

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S TO SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 40 TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 18 TO 25 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...E WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 19 TO 26 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-230300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AST THU NOV 22 2007

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT.  
.FRI...E WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 19 TO 26 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-230300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AST THU NOV 22 2007

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
SEAS BUILDING TO 19 TO 26 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING SW 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 26 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-230300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AST THU NOV 22 2007

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 20 FT. RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 55 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 230019
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AST THU NOV 22 2007

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-231500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 986 MB LOW NEAR 58N 157W WILL MOVE TO NEAR 64N 161W AND WEAKEN TO
994 MB FRI MORNING. A 979 MB LOW NEAR 48N 175E WILL MOVE TO NEAR 54N
174E AND STRENGTHEN TO 957 MB THU NIGHT THEN WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHWEST BERING SEA THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. A 993
MB LOW FORMING NEAR 47N 173W FRI AFTERNOON WILL STRENGTHEN TO 984 MB
NEAR 55N 164W FRI NIGHT THEN MOVE NEAR 58N 166W SAT AFTERNOON. A 988
MB LOW FORMING NEAR 43N 170W WILL STRENGTHEN TO 969 MB NEAR 50N 162W 
SAT AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ411-231500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AST THU NOV 22 2007

...STORM WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-231500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AST THU NOV 22 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS
11 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-231500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AST THU NOV 22 2007

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6
TO 10 FT BUILDING TO 15 TO 19 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 20 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-231500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AST THU NOV 22 2007

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 231204
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AST FRI NOV 23 2007

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-240300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 954 MB LOW AT 54N 172E THIS MORNING REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH SAT NIGHT AS IT SLOWLY WEAKENS TO 964 MB. A 977 MB LOW MOVES
NORTH TO 53N 164W LATE FRI NIGHT...THEN MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH AS IT
MOVES TO 58N 166W LATE SAT NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-240300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AST FRI NOV 23 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S TO E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S TO E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-240300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AST FRI NOV 23 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 19 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-240300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AST FRI NOV 23 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 19 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-240300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AST FRI NOV 23 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 13 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST WED NOV 21 2007

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PRESENT THIS MORNING OVER THE
BERING SEA...WITH A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE YUKON. COLD AIR AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE PRESENT
OVER THE BERING. OVER THE MAINLAND...VERY WARM...MOIST AIR IS PRESENT
IN SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH EXTENDS ALL THE WAY NORTH FROM THE TROPICS.
AT THE SURFACE...A DISSIPATING LOW IS PRESENT OVER THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND THIS MORNING. A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM
THIS LOW TO ANOTHER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTH PACIFIC SOUTH
OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY RAIN...IS
PRESENT OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND EAST OF THE LOW. RAINFALL HAS BEEN
VERY HEAVY OVER COASTAL REGIONS. FOR EXAMPLE...PORTAGE HAS RECEIVED
OVER 8 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH HURRICANE
FORCE WIND GUSTS. SMALL STREAM FLOODING REMAINS A CONCERN OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA DUE TO HEAVY
RAIN COUPLED WITH SNOWMELT.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODEL CONFIDENCE IS BUILDING FOR THE NEXT MAJOR LOW TO MOVE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA AND INTO THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND
THURSDAY. FAVORING GFS MODEL FOR THIS LOW. FOR THE NEXT MAJOR LOW TO
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THURSDAY NIGHT...MODEL CONFIDENCE IS
ALSO BUILDING AND WE ARE ALSO FAVORING THE GFS. FROM FRIDAY
ONWARD...MODEL CONFIDENCE DECREASES SOMEWHAT ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE
EXACT POSITION OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE BERING. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH FOR GENERALLY CYCLONIC FLOW TO PERSIST OVER THE BERING FRIDAY
ONWARD.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...
VERY MOIST ONSHORE FLOW TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT FAIRLY SMALL CHANGES IN THE LOCATION OF THE
PRECIPITATION...WITH THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN KENAI AND PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND RECEIVING THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION...AND COOK INLET REGION
AND COPPER RIVER BASIN RECEIVING LESS PRECIP DUE TO DOWNSLOPING. ALSO
EXPECT CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG TODAY
AND TONIGHT OVER MOST AREAS...AS THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND
WEAKENS AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. HOWEVER...ANOTHER STRONG
LOW IS POISED TO FOLLOW A SIMILAR TRACK AS ITS PREDECESSOR...MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF THURSDAY MORNING AND INTO THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS TO THE
USUAL AREAS...AND A HIGH WATCH WATCH HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR PORTAGE
VALLEY...TURNAGAIN ARM...AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS NEAR ANCHORAGE FOR
THURSDAY. COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH PERHAPS SOME BETTER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR INLAND AREAS...AS WELL AS MAYBE A SHOT OF
SNOW.

SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BRISTOL BAY REGION THIS MORNING WILL DISSIPATE
TODAY. AREAS OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
BRISTOL BAY NORTH INTO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY...WHILE THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY PRECIP TO MAINLY FALL AS SNOW. A
SIMILAR SETUP WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT THAT A BIT
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AND STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE ALEUTIAN RANGE AND MOVES
THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND. THIS LOW SHOULD HAVE MORE PUNCH THAN
THE PRESENT LOW FOR THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...AS IT IS EXPECTED TO
HAVE MORE UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT. COLDER AIR AND CALMER WEATHER WILL
WORK INTO THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
COLD NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE BERING/ALEUTIANS TODAY
WITH GENERALLY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. WARMER AIR WILL
GRADUALLY WORK INTO THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. TONIGHT...A FAIRLY
WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS...BRINGING MOSTLY
RAIN. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE THEN MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE WESTERN BERING FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING
WARMER...WET WEATHER TO THE ENTIRE REGION.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
AREAS OF STRONG LOW PRESSURE ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST IN THE
BERING/ALEUTIANS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MILD TEMPERATURES AND WET
WEATHER LIKELY TO PERSIST OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND INLAND SOUTHCENTRAL.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH 101 AND 125.
MARINE...STORM WARNINGS ZONES 120 130 132 138 140 351 352.
         GALE WARNINGS ZONES 125 129 141 150 155 160 165 180 414.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING ZONES 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

FOISY NOV 07