Storm Warning 102, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 291200
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM ADT MON OCT 29 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-300200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A STRONG WEATHER FRONT MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA
TODAY AND TONIGHT WHILE A 963 MB LOW MOVES TO 40 NM SOUTHEAST OF
AKHIOK THIS EVENING. THIS LOW MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH AS IT MOVES
ONSHORE THE SOUTHWEST END OF THE KENAI PENINSULA TUE MORNING.
$$

PKZ120-300200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM ADT MON OCT 29 2007

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 19 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 27 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-300200-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM ADT MON OCT 29 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON EXCEPT 30 KT
SOUTH OF CAINES HEAD. SEAS 4 FT EXCEPT 8 FT SOUTH OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT EXCEPT 30 KT SOUTH OF CAINES HEAD. SEAS 4 FT
EXCEPT 8 FT SOUTH OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 25 KT BY NOON. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-300200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM ADT MON OCT 29 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 9 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-300200-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM ADT MON OCT 29 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-300200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM ADT MON OCT 29 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT THIS MORNING THEN
DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 21 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 45 KT BECOMING SW 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 23 FT.
RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-300200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM ADT MON OCT 29 2007

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 23 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
22 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-300200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM ADT MON OCT 29 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT.
RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-300200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM ADT MON OCT 29 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. OUT OF TURNAGAIN ARM...GUSTS TO SE WIND 50
KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. OUT OF TURNAGAIN
ARM...GUSTS TO SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-300200-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM ADT MON OCT 29 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT BY NOON. SEAS 6 FT.
RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
300 PM ADT SUN OCT 28 2007

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE BERING SEA AND
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA
TONIGHT. THIS LOW STILL HAS A LOT OF UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AS CAN BE
SEEN ON THE IR SATELLITE. A SECONDARY LOW CAN BE SEEN ON THE VISIBLE
SATELLITE A LITTLE FARTHER WEST IN THE BERING SEA BUT THIS LOW DOES
NOT HAVE MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT.
THE BIG SYSTEM THAT IS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM FAXAI IS EASILY
SEEN ON THE IR SATELLITE SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. THE
JET STREAM FEEDING INTO THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS A TROPICAL CONNECTION
ALL THE WAY INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. IT IS NOT AS PRONOUNCED AS
YESTERDAY BUT IT IS STILL BRINGING A LOT OF WARM AIR INTO THE SYSTEM.

THOUGH THERE IS NOT A GIANT AMOUNT OF COLD AIR AVAILABLE IN THE
BERING SEA FOR THIS SYSTEM TO TAP INTO...THERE IS ENOUGH THAT THIS
LOW WILL REALLY DEEPEN QUICKLY AS IT MERGES WITH THE LOW IN THE
BERING SEA MONDAY AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK ISLAND.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED NUMEROUS TIMES THE MODELS
ARE STILL HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY HANDLING THE EXTRA TROPICAL SYSTEM.
FORTUNATELY AS IT GETS CLOSER THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS AND THE
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OF EACH MODEL IS IMPROVING. THE LATEST RUNS
ARE DIVIDED INTO TWO CAMPS...THE FIRST IS THE GFS AND UKMET SOLUTION
WHICH DOWNPLAYS THE EXTRA TROPICAL SYSTEM AND DEEPENS THE BERING SEA
LOW AND MOVES IT ONSHORE IN NORTHEAST BRISTOL BAY. THERE ARE TWO
REASONS NOT TO LIKE THIS SOLUTION. THE FIRST IS THAT THERE IS A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO KEEP THE LOW FURTHER
SOUTH AND THE COLD ADVECTION FROM THE AIR IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA
WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN THE LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THEREFORE
IT POINTS TO THE SOLUTION THAT IS CLOSER TO WHAT BOTH THE ECMWF AND
NAM HAVE. THE NAM AND ECMWF BOTH MAKE TO EXTRA TROPICAL SYSTEM THE
DOMINANT LOW AND HAVE IT ABSORB THE LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE
BERING SEA SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK ISLAND TOMORROW. THE NAM AND ECMWF
HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES THOUGH. IN THE END THE NAM SOLUTION
WHICH BRINGS THE LOW INTO COOK INLET IN TUESDAY IS THE PREFERRED
SOLUTION. THE ECMWF WANTS TO BRING THE LOW TO MIDDLETON ISLAND
TUESDAY. THIS IS POSSIBLE BUT THE OVERALL CLUES POINT TO THE LOW
MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA A LITTLE FARTHER WEST THAN THAT.
EVEN THOUGH THE SOLUTION WILL NOT BE PERFECT THE NAM SHOULD NOT BE
TOO FAR OFF EITHER.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF
ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS TO THE COAST AND COASTAL
MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. THE LOW IN THE BERING SEA WILL ALSO BRING RAIN
TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA AS IT MOVES THROUGH THAT AREA. FOG IS LIKELY
TO DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE BIG LOW WILL MOVE INLAND INTO THE INTERIOR
OF THE STATE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BRINGING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO
SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA AND MOSTLY RAIN EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE.
ANOTHER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE ALEUTIANS AND THEN INTO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA LATE IN THE WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE AND STORM WARNINGS CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THROUGH NORTH GULF
COAST WATERS.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

OCT 07