Alert archive / Kansas / Tornado Warnings in 2006

Tornado Warning 18, NWS Topeka, KS

April 15, 2006Jefferson County, Kansas

NWS Topeka, KS issued this tornado warning at Apr 15, 2006, 7:15 PM CDT for Jefferson County, Kansas. It was in force for 45 min. 3 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Apr 15, 2006, 7:15 PM CDT (00:15 UTC)
Expired: Apr 15, 2006, 8:00 PM CDT
In force: 45 min
Issued by: NWS Topeka, KS
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Jefferson County, KS

The radar

The Topeka radar (KTWX), 75 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:17 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Apr 15, 7:20 PM CDT	TSTM WND DMG	Grantville, KS	TRAILER AND BARN DAMAGE
Apr 15, 7:55 PM CDT	HAIL 1	Perry, KS
Apr 15, 7:58 PM CDT	HAIL 0.88	2 E Perry, KS

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this tornado warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Topeka, KS (KTOP), launched 00:00Z, 0.3 hours before the alert went out and 28 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1495 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -85 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1459 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 71 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 439 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 519 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 2.1
Supercell composite: 8.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WFUS53 KTOP 160015
TORTOP
KSC087-160100-
/O.NEW.KTOP.TO.W.0018.060416T0015Z-060416T0100Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
715 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  JEFFERSON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST KANSAS

* UNTIL 800 PM CDT

* AT 712 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 4 MILES SOUTH OF
  GRANTVILLE...OR ABOUT 6 MILES EAST OF TOPEKA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
  45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  PERRY...
  PERRY LAKE...
  OZAWKIE...
  OSKALOOSA...
  MCLOUTH...
  WINCHESTER...

FOR YOUR SAFETY...GO TO A STORM SHELTER OR BASEMENT NOW TORNADOES
MAY HAVE WINDS GREATER THAN 100 MPH. AVOID OVERPASSES AND WINDOWS.
COVER YOUR HEAD.

STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST
SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

LAT...LON 3929 9518 3916 9518 3906 9527 3907 9541
      3907 9549 3908 9550 3907 9557 3908 9558
      3916 9557 3936 9533

$$

1 follow-up statement

000 
WWUS53 KTOP 160036
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
736 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2006

KSC087-160100-
/O.CON.KTOP.TO.W.0018.000000T0000Z-060416T0100Z/
JEFFERSON-
736 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2006

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY...

AT 733 PM CDT...JEFFERSON COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED A 
ROTATING WALL CLOUD 2 MILES NORTH OF WILLIAMSTOWN...OR ABOUT 10 
MILES NORTH OF DOWNTOWN LAWRENCE.  THE STORM WAS MOVING EAST AT 35 
MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MCLOUTH.

IF A TORNADO APPROACHES...GO TO A BASEMENT OR SEEK SHELTER IN A
HALLWAY OR CLOSET ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING. USE BLANKETS
OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR HEAD AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

LAT...LON 3930 9518 3916 9518 3906 9524 3907 9541
      3926 9536

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this tornado warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Topeka, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before this tornado warning went out at Apr 15, 3:23 PM CDT, 3 hours 52 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Apr 15, 3:23 PM CDT, 3 hours 52 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
323 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2006

.DISCUSSION...

DRYLINE SEEN WELL IN BOTH RADAR AND SATELLITE JUST NOW MOVING
THROUGH SLN AND CNK. WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTION ONGOING FROM NORTHEAST
OF A LINE FROM MHK TO EMP.  STRONG CAP ON 18Z TOP SOUNDING WILL
WEAKEN WITH TIME...BUT MOISTURE NOT EXTREMELY DEEP AND MIXED LAYER
CAPE GENERALLY 1000 J/KG OR LESS AT THIS TIME.  BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE IN OUR CWA SHOULD BE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN KANSAS ALONG/AHEAD
OF DRYLINE FROM 21 THROUGH 02Z AS STRONGER FORCING AND COLDER AIR
ALOFT ACROSS NEBRASKA COULD WEAKEN CAP ENOUGH FOR SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION TO FORM.  RELATIVELY HIGH LCLS SOMETHING OF A NEGATIVE
FOR TORS...BUT STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS CONCERNING.  REFERENCE TOR
WATCH 190 FOR MORE INFO.

GFS/ETA MODELS ARE RELATIVELY CONSISTENT IN PRODUCING CONVECTION
ONLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES WITH BEST CHANCE FAR
NORTHEAST THIS EVENING.  RUC AND PARALLEL NAM WOULD GENERATE
THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER SOUTH...BUT CHANCES DECREASE WITH SOUTHWARD
EXTENT...THUS HIGHEST POPS FAR NORTHEAST TAPERING OFF TO ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

LOW PRESSURE OCCLUDES OVERNIGHT AND THEN MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD ON
SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE/CLOUDINESS SHOULD AFFECT NORTHEAST KANSAS ON SUNDAY KEEPING
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER THAN THEY OTHERWISE WOULD BE.  THERE IS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY MAINLY ALONG THE NEBRASKA BORDER
AND EARLY IN THE DAY.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FROM NGM/NAM/GFS AGREE QUITE WELL WITH EACH
OTHER FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND HAVE DIFFERED LITTLE FROM THEM.
THIS RESULTED IN RAISING LOWS TONIGHT A FEW DEGREES FROM ONGOING
FORECAST.

THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVE OFF INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY SUNDAY EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH NUDGES INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS
BY 12Z MONDAY. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO ON MONDAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE
INTO THE UPPER TEENS NEAR THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF KANSAS TO THE
LOWER 20S IN THE SOUTHERN CWA. 500 MB RIDGE WILL BE OVER EASTERN
KANSAS EARLY MONDAY THEN MOVE EAST AS NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE ROCKIES MONDAY EVENING. WILL LEAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S ON MONDAY.

NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY AS UPPER
TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS AND SURFACE FRONT/DRYLINE MOVES
ACROSS THE CWA INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME POPS FOR
TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA. THE UPPER
BLOCKING PATTERN STILL FORECAST TO OCCUR WITH THE PLAINS UPPER LOW
MOVING NORTHEAST FROM NEBRASKA TO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK ON FRIDAY WILL
KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES SOUTH OF THE CWA INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 15, 3:21 PM CDT, 3 hours 54 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
321 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2006

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-162030-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
321 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
OVER EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN KANSAS...ALONG THE
DRYLINE AND NEAR A WARM FRONT DRAPED NEAR THE KANSAS...NEBRASKA
BORDER. THERE IS AN ENHANCED THREAT OF TORNADOES...LARGE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THIS AREA AS ISOLATED SUPERCELLS
ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE WARM FRONT. THE REST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA MAY
ALSO SEE SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

THE RANGELAND FIRE DANGER INDEX WILL BE IN THE EXTREME
CATEGORY OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND IN THE VERY HIGH
CATEGORY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN KANSAS.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Apr 15, 6:59 PM CDT, 16 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
659 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0647 PM     TORNADO          WILLIS                  39.72N 95.51W
04/15/2006                   BROWN              KS   PUBLIC

            OWNER OF HOUSE CALLED AFTER TORNADO WENT OVER HIS
            HOUSE...REPORTED LARGE PORTION OF HIS ROOF
            REMOVED...SEVERAL TREES UPROOTED...AND HE BELIEVES THE
            TORNADO MOVED THE FOUNDATION OF HIS HOUSE.

&&

CAVANAUGH

Local storm report, Apr 15, 7:00 PM CDT, 15 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
700 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0659 PM     HAIL             TOPEKA                  39.05N 95.68W
04/15/2006  E1.75 INCH       SHAWNEE            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORT OF GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AT 37TH AND BURLINGAME

&&

CAVANAUGH

Local storm report, Apr 15, 7:02 PM CDT, 13 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
702 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     HAIL             TOPEKA                  39.05N 95.68W
04/15/2006  E1.50 INCH       SHAWNEE            KS   AIRPLANE PILOT

            HAIL REPORT AT SOUTH TOPEKA TURNPIKE EXIT.

&&

CAVANAUGH

Local storm report, Apr 15, 7:03 PM CDT, 12 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
703 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     HAIL             TOPEKA                  39.05N 95.68W
04/15/2006  E1.50 INCH       SHAWNEE            KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HAIL REPORT AT SOUTH TOPEKA TURNPIKE EXIT.

&&

CAVANAUGH

Local storm report, Apr 15, 7:11 PM CDT, 4 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
711 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0659 PM     HAIL             TOPEKA                  39.05N 95.68W
04/15/2006  E1.75 INCH       SHAWNEE            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            21ST AND FAIRLAWN

&&

BYRNE

Local storm report, Apr 15, 7:13 PM CDT, 2 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
713 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0659 PM     HAIL             TOPEKA                  39.05N 95.68W
04/15/2006  E1.75 INCH       SHAWNEE            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL AT LEAST GOLF BALL SIZE AT 21ST AND FAIRLAWN.

&&

CAVANAUGH

The office that day

Everything else NWS Topeka, KS issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Apr 15, 7:19 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Douglas	41 min
Apr 15, 7:34 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Shawnee	15 min
Apr 15, 7:58 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Jefferson	16 min

Nearby

Tornado Warnings in Kansas, 2006 Every tornado warning in 2006 Tornadoes in 2006

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.