Alert archive / New Jersey / Winter Storm Watches in 2006
Winter Storm Watch 3, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly
NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly issued this winter storm watch at Feb 10, 2006, 4:17 AM EST for 4 states. It took effect at Feb 11, 2006, 12:00 PM EST. It was in force for .
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Feb 10, 2006, 4:17 AM EST (09:17 UTC)
- In effect from
- Feb 11, 2006, 12:00 PM EST
- Expired
- Feb 11, 2006, 11:58 AM EST
- In force
- Issued by
- NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly
All 31 counties
Kent County, DE, New Castle County, DE, Sussex County, DE, Caroline County, MD, Cecil County, MD, Kent County, MD, Queen Anne's County, MD, Talbot County, MD, Atlantic County, NJ, Burlington County, NJ, Camden County, NJ, Cape May County, NJ, Cumberland County, NJ, Gloucester County, NJ, Hunterdon County, NJ, Mercer County, NJ, Middlesex County, NJ, Monmouth County, NJ, Morris County, NJ, Ocean County, NJ, Salem County, NJ, Somerset County, NJ, Sussex County, NJ, Warren County, NJ, Berks County, PA, Carbon County, PA, Delaware County, PA, Lehigh County, PA, Monroe County, PA, Northampton County, PA, Philadelphia County, PA
The radar
The Philadelphia radar (KDIX), 67 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 09:16 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Washington/Dulle, VA (KIAD), launched 00:00Z, 9.3 hours before the alert went out and 219 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2110 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 74 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 148 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 202 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000
WWUS41 KPHI 100917
WSWPHI
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
417 AM EST FRI FEB 10 2006
DEZ002>004-MDZ015-019-020-NJZ021>025-102130-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.A.0003.060211T1700Z-060212T1100Z/
KENT DE-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-
CAROLINE-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-
COASTAL ATLANTIC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOVER...GEORGETOWN...REHOBOTH BEACH...
CENTREVILLE...EASTON...DENTON...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...
CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY...ATLANTIC CITY
417 AM EST FRI FEB 10 2006
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...
...MAJOR EAST COAST STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
AFTER TAKING ALMOST A TWO MONTH BREAK, WINTER WILL BE MAKING ITS
RETURN WITH AVEANGENCE THIS WEEKEND.
LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES LATER
TODAY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY
SATURDAY. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST LATE SATURDAY
NEAR THE VIRGINIA-NORTH CAROLINA BORDER. IT IS THEN FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES UP THE COAST TO A POSITION JUST EAST OF
CAPE COD SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH PLENTY OF GULF AND ATLANTIC
MOISTURE AVAILABLE, THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO
A MAJOR NORTHEASTER. SNOW OR MIXED RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD INTO THE REGION BY MIDDAY SATURDAY FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE QUITE LIGHT DURING THE
EARLY AND MID AFTERNOON HOURS AND WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RELATIVELY WARM ATLANTIC OCEAN, AREAS CLOSE TO THE COAST MAY
SEE MORE RAIN THAN SNOW. BUT AS THE STORM BEGINS TO INTENSIFY
AND THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION MOVES IN LATE IN THE DAY AND AT
NIGHT, THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW, EVEN IN THE COASTAL SECTIONS.
THE SNOW WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS AND CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF
TO LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES BY DAYBREAK. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER
MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 3 TO 8 INCHES
WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS OCCURRING WELL INLAND.
WITH THIS TYPE OF AN EXPLOSIVE EAST COAST STORM, IT IS ALSO
POSSIBLE TO GET CONVECTION, OR THUNDERSNOW, AT THE HEIGHT OF THE
STORM. IF THIS OCCURS, SNOWFALL RATES COULD REACH 2 TO 3 INCHES
AN HOUR. THIS WOULD CAUSE TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS TO BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER.
THIS STORM WILL HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON OUR AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING THIS WEEKEND...PLEASE STAY
TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS ON
THIS WINTER STORM.
A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
$$
DEZ001-MDZ008-012-NJZ001-007>010-012>020-026-027-PAZ054-055-
060>062-067>071-102130-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.A.0003.060211T1700Z-060212T1400Z/
NEW CASTLE-CECIL-KENT MD-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-
MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-
GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...
NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...
NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...TRENTON...PENNSVILLE...
GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...
JACKSON...LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST...JIM THORPE...
STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON...
WEST CHESTER...NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN...MEDIA
417 AM EST FRI FEB 10 2006
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...
...MAJOR EAST COAST STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.
AFTER TAKING ALMOST A TWO MONTH BREAK, WINTER WILL BE MAKING ITS
RETURN WITH AVEANGENCE THIS WEEKEND.
LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES LATER
TODAY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY
SATURDAY. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST LATE SATURDAY
NEAR THE VIRGINIA-NORTH CAROLINA BORDER. IT IS THEN FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES UP THE COAST TO A POSITION JUST EAST OF
CAPE COD SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH PLENTY OF GULF AND ATLANTIC
MOISTURE AVAILABLE, THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO
A MAJOR NORTHEASTER. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION
AROUND MIDDAY SATURDAY FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. THE SNOW
WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS AND CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO
LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES TOWARD DAYBREAK. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER
MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 6 TO 12 INCHES.
USING THE AFOREMENTIONED TRACK FOR THIS STORM, THE AXIS OF THE
HEAVIEST SNOW WOULD RUN FROM NORTHERN DELAWARE NORTHEAST ACROSS
PHILADELPHIA AND TRENTON TO THE NEW YORK CITY AREA. ACCUMULATIONS
IN THIS AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE 8 TO AROUND 12 INCHES. IF THE STORM
TRACKS FARTHER EAST, THE HEAVY SNOW WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST. IF IT
TRACKS FARTHER WEST, CLOSER TO THE COAST, THE HEAVY SNOW WOULD
SHIFT TO THE WEST.
WITH THIS TYPE OF AN EXPLOSIVE EAST COAST STORM, IT IS ALSO
POSSIBLE TO GET CONVECTION, OR THUNDERSNOW, AT THE HEIGHT OF THE
STORM. IF THIS OCCURS, SNOWFALL RATES COULD REACH 2 TO 3 INCHES
AN HOUR. THIS WOULD CAUSE TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS TO EXCEED 12 INCHES.
THIS STORM WILL HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON OUR AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING THIS WEEKEND...PLEASE STAY
TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS ON
THIS WINTER STORM.
A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
$$
THIS IS AN EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT FOR THE WINTER OF LATE 2005 THROUGH
EARLY 2006. THE PROBABILITIES GIVEN BELOW ARE BASED ON A
COMBINATION OF STATISTICAL THEORY, OUR SNOWFALL FORECASTS OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL WINTERS, AND THE MOST LIKELY SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR THIS
POTENTIAL STORM. THE PERIOD OF EXPECTED SNOWFALL IS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
=====================================================================
PROBABILITY (PERCENT) OF REACHING OR EXCEEDING
THE FOLLOWING STORM-TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS (INCHES)
=====================================================================
STATION 2IN 4IN 6IN 9IN 12IN 18IN 24IN
=====================================================================
MPO 90 80 65 30 15 5 <5
ABE 90 85 75 40 20 5 <5
PHL 95 90 85 50 20 10 <5
ACY 80 70 50 20 10 <5 <5
GED 70 50 25 10 5 <5 <5
=====================================================================
PROBABILITIES ARE ROUNDED TO THE NEAREST 5 PERCENT.
STATION IDENTIFIERS:
MPO - MOUNT POCONO, PA (MOUNT POCONO AIRPORT)
ABE - ALLENTOWN, PA (LEHIGH VALLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT)
PHL - PHILADELPHIA, PA (PHILADELPHIA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT)
ACY - POMONA, NJ (ATLANTIC CITY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT)
GED - GEORGETOWN, DE (SUSSEX COUNTY AIRPORT)
THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ER/PHI
TFG/RPW4 follow-up statements
000
WWUS41 KPHI 101349
WSWPHI
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
849 AM EST FRI FEB 10 2006
DEZ002>004-MDZ015-019-020-NJZ021>025-102200-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.A.0003.060211T1700Z-060212T1100Z/
KENT DE-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-
CAROLINE-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-
COASTAL ATLANTIC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOVER...GEORGETOWN...REHOBOTH BEACH...
CENTREVILLE...EASTON...DENTON...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...
CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY...ATLANTIC CITY
849 AM EST FRI FEB 10 2006
...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...
...MAJOR EAST COAST STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
AFTER TAKING ALMOST A TWO MONTH BREAK... WINTER WILL BE MAKING
ITS RETURN WITH A VENGEANCE THIS WEEKEND.
LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES LATER
TODAY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY
SATURDAY. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST LATE SATURDAY
NEAR THE VIRGINIA-NORTH CAROLINA BORDER. IT IS THEN FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES UP THE COAST TO A POSITION JUST EAST OF
CAPE COD SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH PLENTY OF GULF AND ATLANTIC
MOISTURE AVAILABLE... THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP
INTO A MAJOR NORTHEASTER. SNOW OR MIXED RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION BY MIDDAY SATURDAY FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE QUITE LIGHT DURING THE EARLY
AND MID AFTERNOON HOURS AND WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE RELATIVELY
WARM ATLANTIC OCEAN... AREAS CLOSE TO THE COAST MAY SEE MORE RAIN
THAN SNOW. BUT AS THE STORM BEGINS TO INTENSIFY AND THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION MOVES IN LATE IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT... THE RAIN
WILL CHANGE TO SNOW... EVEN IN THE COASTAL SECTIONS. THE SNOW
WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS AND CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO
LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES BY DAYBREAK. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER MUCH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 3 TO 8 INCHES WITH THE
GREATEST AMOUNTS OCCURRING WELL INLAND.
WITH THIS TYPE OF AN EXPLOSIVE EAST COAST STORM... IT IS ALSO
POSSIBLE TO GET CONVECTION... OR THUNDER-SNOW... AT THE HEIGHT OF
THE STORM. IF THIS OCCURS... SNOWFALL RATES COULD REACH 2 TO
3 INCHES AN HOUR. THIS WOULD CAUSE TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS TO BE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER.
THIS STORM WILL HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON OUR AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING THIS WEEKEND...
PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL
SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST WARNINGS AND
STATEMENTS ON THIS WINTER STORM.
A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
$$
DEZ001-MDZ008-012-NJZ001-007>010-012>020-026-027-PAZ054-055-
060>062-067>071-102200-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.A.0003.060211T1700Z-060212T1400Z/
NEW CASTLE-CECIL-KENT MD-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-
MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-
GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...
NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...
NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...TRENTON...PENNSVILLE...
GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...
JACKSON...LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST...JIM THORPE...
STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON...
WEST CHESTER...NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN...MEDIA
849 AM EST FRI FEB 10 2006
...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...
...MAJOR EAST COAST STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
AFTER TAKING ALMOST A TWO MONTH BREAK... WINTER WILL BE MAKING
ITS RETURN WITH A VENGEANCE THIS WEEKEND.
LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES LATER
TODAY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY
SATURDAY. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST LATE SATURDAY
NEAR THE VIRGINIA-NORTH CAROLINA BORDER. IT IS THEN FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES UP THE COAST TO A POSITION JUST EAST OF
CAPE COD SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH PLENTY OF GULF AND ATLANTIC
MOISTURE AVAILABLE... THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP
INTO A MAJOR NORTHEASTER. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE
REGION AROUND MIDDAY SATURDAY FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. THE
SNOW WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS AND CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING
OFF TO LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES TOWARD DAYBREAK. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
OVER MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 6 TO
12 INCHES.
USING THE AFOREMENTIONED TRACK FOR THIS STORM... THE AXIS OF THE
HEAVIEST SNOW WOULD RUN FROM NORTHERN DELAWARE NORTHEAST ACROSS
PHILADELPHIA AND TRENTON TO THE NEW YORK CITY AREA. ACCUMULATIONS
IN THIS AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE 8 TO AROUND 12 INCHES. IF THE
STORM TRACKS FARTHER EAST... THE HEAVY SNOW WILL SHIFT TO THE
EAST. IF IT TRACKS FARTHER WEST... CLOSER TO THE COAST... THE
HEAVY SNOW WOULD SHIFT TO THE WEST.
WITH THIS TYPE OF AN EXPLOSIVE EAST COAST STORM... IT IS ALSO
POSSIBLE TO GET CONVECTION... OR THUNDER-SNOW... AT THE HEIGHT OF
THE STORM. IF THIS OCCURS... SNOWFALL RATES COULD REACH 2 TO
3 INCHES AN HOUR. THIS WOULD CAUSE TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS TO EXCEED
12 INCHES.
THIS STORM WILL HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON OUR AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING THIS WEEKEND...
PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL
SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST WARNINGS AND
STATEMENTS ON THIS WINTER STORM.
A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
$$
THIS IS AN EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT FOR THE WINTER OF LATE 2005 THROUGH
EARLY 2006. THE PROBABILITIES GIVEN BELOW ARE BASED ON A
COMBINATION OF STATISTICAL THEORY, OUR SNOWFALL FORECASTS OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL WINTERS, AND THE MOST LIKELY SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR THIS
POTENTIAL STORM. THE PERIOD OF EXPECTED SNOWFALL IS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
=====================================================================
PROBABILITY (PERCENT) OF REACHING OR EXCEEDING
THE FOLLOWING STORM-TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS (INCHES)
=====================================================================
STATION 2IN 4IN 6IN 9IN 12IN 18IN 24IN
=====================================================================
MPO 90 80 65 30 15 5 <5
ABE 90 85 75 40 20 5 <5
PHL 95 90 85 50 20 10 <5
ACY 80 70 50 20 10 <5 <5
GED 70 50 25 10 5 <5 <5
=====================================================================
PROBABILITIES ARE ROUNDED TO THE NEAREST 5 PERCENT.
STATION IDENTIFIERS:
MPO - MOUNT POCONO, PA (MOUNT POCONO AIRPORT)
ABE - ALLENTOWN, PA (LEHIGH VALLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT)
PHL - PHILADELPHIA, PA (PHILADELPHIA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT)
ACY - POMONA, NJ (ATLANTIC CITY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT)
GED - GEORGETOWN, DE (SUSSEX COUNTY AIRPORT)
THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ER/PHI
TFG/RPW000 WWUS41 KPHI 102150 WSWPHI URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 450 PM EST FRI FEB 10 2006 DEZ002>004-MDZ015-019-020-NJZ021>025-111100- /O.EXT.KPHI.WS.A.0003.060211T1700Z-060212T1200Z/ KENT DE-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT- CAROLINE-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY- COASTAL ATLANTIC- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOVER...GEORGETOWN...REHOBOTH BEACH... CENTREVILLE...EASTON...DENTON...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON... CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY...ATLANTIC CITY 450 PM EST FRI FEB 10 2006 ...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... ...MAJOR EAST COAST STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY IS CONTINUING A WINTER STORM WATCH, WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. AFTER TAKING ALMOST A TWO MONTH BREAK, WINTER WILL BE MAKING ITS RETURN WITH A VENGEANCE THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF COAST STATES AND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY SATURDAY. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST LATE SATURDAY NEAR THE VIRGINIA-NORTH CAROLINA BORDER. IT IS THEN FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH PLENTY OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE AVAILABLE, THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO GIVE THE REGION A HEAVY SNOWFALL. SNOW OR MIXED RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION BY MIDDAY SATURDAY FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT DURING THE EARLY AND MID AFTERNOON HOURS AND WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE RELATIVELY WARM ATLANTIC OCEAN, AREAS CLOSE TO THE COAST MAY SEE MORE RAIN THAN SNOW. BUT AS THE STORM INTENSIFIES AND THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION MOVES IN LATE IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT, ANY RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW, EVEN IN THE COASTAL SECTIONS. THE SNOW WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES BY DAYBREAK. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 5 TO 9 INCHES WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE RIGHT ALONG THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS. EVEN THOUGH THE COMPUTER MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT, THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM. A SMALL CHANGE IN PATH OR STRENGTH COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. THIS STORM WILL HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON OUR AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING THIS WEEKEND, PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO, OR YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS ON THIS WINTER STORM. A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW, SLEET, OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. $$ DEZ001-MDZ008-012-NJZ008>010-012>020-026-027-PAZ067>071-111100- /O.EXT.KPHI.WS.A.0003.060211T1700Z-060212T1700Z/ NEW CASTLE-CECIL-KENT MD-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX- WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN- NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-COASTAL OCEAN- SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE- PHILADELPHIA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN... MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD... SANDY HOOK...TRENTON...PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN... CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...JACKSON... LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST...WEST CHESTER... NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN...MEDIA 450 PM EST FRI FEB 10 2006 ...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... ...MAJOR EAST COAST STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH, WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. AFTER TAKING ALMOST A TWO MONTH BREAK, WINTER WILL BE MAKING ITS RETURN WITH A VENGEANCE THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF COAST STATES AND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY SATURDAY. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST LATE SATURDAY NEAR THE VIRGINIA-NORTH CAROLINA BORDER. IT IS THEN FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH PLENTY OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE AVAILABLE, THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO GIVE THE REGION A HEAVY SNOWFALL. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON SATURDAY FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT AT FIRST. AS THE STORM INTENSIFIES, HEAVY SNOW WILL BE DEVELOPING SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF TO LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES BY DAYBREAK. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 6 TO 10 INCHES. BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK FOR THIS STORM, THE AXIS OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW WOULD RUN FROM NORTHERN DELAWARE NORTHEAST ACROSS PHILADELPHIA, MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY, AND UP THE NEW YORK CITY AREA. ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE 6 TO AROUND 10 INCHES. WHILE THE COMPUTER MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT, THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS STORM. IF THE STORM TRACKS FARTHER EAST, THE HEAVY SNOW WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST. IF IT TRACKS FARTHER WEST, CLOSER TO THE COAST, THE HEAVY SNOW WOULD SHIFT TO THE WEST. THIS STORM WILL HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON OUR AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING THIS WEEKEND, PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO, OR YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS ON THIS WINTER STORM. A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW, SLEET, OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. $$ NJZ001-007-PAZ054-055-060>062-111100- /O.EXT.KPHI.WS.A.0003.060211T1700Z-060212T1700Z/ SUSSEX-WARREN-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...JIM THORPE... STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON 450 PM EST FRI FEB 10 2006 ...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... ...MAJOR EAST COAST STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH, WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. AFTER TAKING ALMOST A TWO MONTH BREAK, WINTER WILL BE MAKING ITS RETURN WITH A VENGEANCE THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF COAST STATES AND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY SATURDAY. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST LATE SATURDAY NEAR THE VIRGINIA-NORTH CAROLINA BORDER. IT IS THEN FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH PLENTY OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE AVAILABLE, THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO GIVE HEAVY SNOW AMOUNTS. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON SATURDAY FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT AT FIRST. AS THE STORM BEGINS TO INTENSIFY, IF HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPS, IT WOULD MOVE IN SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF TO LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES BY DAYBREAK. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 3 TO 5 INCHES, BUT HIGHER AMOUNTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WHILE THE COMPUTER MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT, THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS STORM. IF THE STORM TRACKS FARTHER EAST, THE HEAVY SNOW WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST. IF IT TRACKS FARTHER WEST, CLOSER TO THE COAST, THE HEAVY SNOW WOULD SHIFT TO THE WEST. THIS STORM WILL HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON OUR AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING THIS WEEKEND, PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO, OR YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS ON THIS WINTER STORM. A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW, SLEET, OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. $$ NIERENBERG
000 WWUS41 KPHI 110849 WSWPHI URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 349 AM EST SAT FEB 11 2006 NJZ001-007>010-PAZ060>062-067>069-111700- /O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0003.060211T1700Z-060212T1700Z/ /O.NEW.KPHI.HS.W.0001.060211T2100Z-060212T1800Z/ SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON- CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN... FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM... EASTON...WEST CHESTER...NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN 349 AM EST SAT FEB 11 2006 ...HEAVY SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A HEAVY SNOW WARNING, WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDDAY SUNDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. THE LATEST FORECAST FOR THE NORTHWEST SUBURBS OF PHILADELPHIA AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW JERSEY IS FOR EIGHT TO THIRTEEN INCHES OF SNOW. THE LATEST FORECAST FOR BERKS COUNTY, THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND FAR NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY IS FOR SIX TO TEN INCHES OF SNOW. SNOW SHOULD BEGIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON, CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND END ON SUNDAY. MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT. SOME THUNDER IS POSSIBLE. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF REGION TO OFF THE NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT, THEN LIFT NORTHEAST TO OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. A HEAVY SNOW WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST, KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT, FOOD AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. $$ DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ012>020-026-027-PAZ070-071-111700- /O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0003.060211T1700Z-060212T1700Z/ /O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0004.060211T2100Z-060212T1800Z/ NEW CASTLE-CECIL-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH- MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN- COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...NEW BRUNSWICK... FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...TRENTON...PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO... CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...JACKSON... LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST...MEDIA 349 AM EST SAT FEB 11 2006 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING, WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL MIDDAY SUNDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. THE LATEST FORECAST FOR THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR IS FOR EIGHT TO THIRTEEN INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET. THE LATEST FORECAST FOR COASTAL MONMOUTH AND OCEAN COUNTIES IS FOR SIX TO TEN INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET. SNOW SHOULD BEGIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON, CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND END ON SUNDAY. MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT. SOME THUNDER IS POSSIBLE. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF REGION TO OFF THE NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT, THEN LIFT NORTHEAST TO OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW AND SLEET ARE EXPECTED. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. $$ PAZ054-055-111700- /O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0003.060211T1700Z-060212T1700Z/ /O.NEW.KPHI.SN.Y.0001.060212T0000Z-060212T1800Z/ CARBON-MONROE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG 349 AM EST SAT FEB 11 2006 ...SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A SNOW ADVISORY, WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING UNTIL MIDDAY SUNDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. THE LATEST FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN POCONOS IS FOR FOUR TO EIGHT INCHES OF SNOW. SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TOWARD EVENING, CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND END ON SUNDAY. MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF REGION TO OFF THE NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT, THEN LIFT NORTHEAST TO OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. A SNOW ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES, AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. $$ DEZ002>004-MDZ012-015-019-020-NJZ021>025-111700- /O.EXT.KPHI.WS.A.0003.060212T0300Z-060212T1800Z/ KENT DE-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES- TALBOT-CAROLINE-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY- ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOVER...GEORGETOWN...REHOBOTH BEACH... CHESTERTOWN...CENTREVILLE...EASTON...DENTON...MILLVILLE... HAMMONTON...CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY...ATLANTIC CITY 349 AM EST SAT FEB 11 2006 ...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... SNOW DEVELOPING TODAY IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SLEET AND THEN RAIN, AND THAT RAIN IS FORECAST TO CHANGE BACK TO SLEET AND THEN SNOW TONIGHT. FOUR TO SEVEN INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET MAY FALL INLAND OVER FAR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY, CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND THE ADJACENT MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE, WHILE THREE TO FIVE INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET MAY FALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST AND THE DELAWARE COAST. THE BULK OF THE SNOW AND SLEET IS EXPECTED FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SOME THUNDER AND STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF REGION TO OFF THE NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT, THEN LIFT NORTHEAST TO OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND SLEET THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. $$
000 WWUS41 KPHI 111658 WSWPHI URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1158 AM EST SAT FEB 11 2006 PAZ054-055-112300- /O.UPG.KPHI.SN.Y.0001.060212T0000Z-060212T1800Z/ /O.EXA.KPHI.HS.W.0001.060211T2100Z-060212T1800Z/ CARBON-MONROE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG 1158 AM EST SAT FEB 11 2006 ...HEAVY SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A HEAVY SNOW WARNING, WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY. THE SNOW ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THIS AFTERNOON TO OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT, THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TO OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE SOUTHERN POCONOS OF 5 TO 9 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION TOWARD EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT HEAVY AT TIMES AND TAPER OFF ON SUNDAY. MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT TO 10 TO 20 MPH, AND CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW, ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS. A HEAVY SNOW WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST, KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT, FOOD, AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLET FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES ON THIS WINTER STORM. $$ DEZ002>004-MDZ012-015-019-020-NJZ021>025-112300- /O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0003.060212T0300Z-060212T1800Z/ /O.EXA.KPHI.WS.W.0004.060211T2100Z-060212T1800Z/ KENT DE-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES- TALBOT-CAROLINE-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY- ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOVER...GEORGETOWN...REHOBOTH BEACH... CHESTERTOWN...CENTREVILLE...EASTON...DENTON...MILLVILLE... HAMMONTON...CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY...ATLANTIC CITY 1158 AM EST SAT FEB 11 2006 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING, WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THIS AFTERNOON TO OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT, THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TO OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. A MIX OF RAIN, SLEET AND SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND CONTINUE THIS EVENING, THEN CHANGE TO ALL SNOW DURING THE COURSE OF TONIGHT AND BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF DURING SUNDAY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO VARY, WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES AT THE COAST, AND 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS. THERE SHOULD BE A TIGHT SNOWFALL GRADIENT ACROSS ATLANTIC AND CAPE MAY COUNTIES IN NEW JERSEY, AND IN SUSSEX COUNTY IN DELAWARE. FOR THESE COUNTIES, 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW INLAND AND 3 TO 6 INCHES RIGHT AT THE COAST. MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH, AND CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW, ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS. A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW, SLEET AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLET FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES ON THIS WINTER STORM. $$ NJZ001-007>010-PAZ060>062-067>069-112300- /O.CON.KPHI.HS.W.0001.060211T2100Z-060212T1800Z/ SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON- CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN... FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM... EASTON...WEST CHESTER...NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN 1158 AM EST SAT FEB 11 2006 ...HEAVY SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY... A HEAVY SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THIS AFTERNOON TO OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT, THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TO OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LEHIGH VALLEY INCLUDING BERKS COUNTY, AND FAR NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST, SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 13 INCHES ARE EXPECTED FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF PHILADELPHIA. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, THEN CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF DURING SUNDAY. MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. SOME THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE. NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH TONIGHT AND CONTINUE ON SUNDAY, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 35 MPH. THIS WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW, ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS. A HEAVY SNOW WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST, KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT, FOOD AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLET FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES ON THIS WINTER STORM. $$ DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ012>020-026-027-PAZ070-071-112300- /O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0004.060211T2100Z-060212T1800Z/ NEW CASTLE-CECIL-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH- MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN- COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...NEW BRUNSWICK... FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...TRENTON...PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO... CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...JACKSON... LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST...MEDIA 1158 AM EST SAT FEB 11 2006 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY... A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THIS AFTERNOON TO OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT, THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TO OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 13 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD MIX WITH SOME SLEET AND RAIN AT TIMES. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF DURING SUNDAY. MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. SOME THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 T0 25 MPH TONIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 35 MPH, AND CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW, ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS. A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW AND SLEET ARE EXPECTED. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLET FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES ON THIS WINTER STORM. $$ GORSE/KRUDZLO/KAWECKI
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this winter storm watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly wrote its last area forecast discussion before this winter storm watch went out at Feb 10, 3:50 AM EST, 27 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Feb 10, 3:50 AM EST, 27 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
350 AM EST FRI FEB 10 2006
.OVERVIEW...
TOM GRANT A VERY RESPECTED AND LONG TIME METEOROLOGIST FROM THE WFO
NYC OFFICE WHO I HAD THE HONOR OF WORKING WITH FOR MANY YEARS USED
TO HAVE AN EXPESSION THAT EVERY SCHOOL CHILD KNOWS IT LOVES TO SNOW
IN FEBRUARY. HE MUST HAVE HAD THIS GFS RUN AND EVENT IN MIND. THAT
ASIDE SCHOOL CHILDREN WOULD PROBABLY HAVE WISHED THIS WAS A MONDAY
NIGHT EVENT INSTEAD. WE HAVE BEEN AT THIS LONG ENOUGH (65 YEARS OF
EXPERIENCE TNGT) TO KNOW CONDITIONS WILL ALWAYS CHANGE AND MODEL QPF
FORECASTS ARE ONE OF THE WEAKER LINKS IN THE CHAIN OF FCSTG. THE 06Z
RUN OF THE NAM JUST PROVED THAT POINT. FOR NOW ALL THE OTHER MODELS
ARE CONVERGING ON AN NEARLY IDEAL TRACK FOR A WINTER STORM FOR OUR
CWA. ANYTIME WE SEE A MILLER TYPE A STORM FORM ALONG/IN THE GUFMEX
THE THOUGHT OF ONE FOOT SNOWS ENTER OUR HEAD BECAUSE OF THE DUAL
RICH MOISTURE SOURCES. ONE STILL NEEDS THE IDEAL TRACK AND UPPER AIR
CONDS TO HAVE THIS COME TO FRUITION. IN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL HISTORY
OF PHL...THERE HAVE BEEN ONLY ABOUT TEN WINTER STORMS SINCE 1882
THAT HAVE PRODUCED ACCUMULATIONS EXCEEDING 10 INCHES IN THE MONTH OF
FEBRUARY...SO THE CONFLUENCE OF EVENTS DOES NOT OCCUR AS OFTEN AS
ONE WOULD THINK. NEVERTHELESS THE MDLS (ASIDE FROM THE 06Z NAM)
AGREE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR WINTER STORM AND A WINTER STORM
WATCH WILL BE ISSUED WITH THIS FCST PKG FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA WITH SAT
NIGHT (DEPENDING UPON ONE/S PERSPECTIVE) HAVING THE BEST/WORST
CONDITIONS.
THE GFS INIT BETTER THAN THE NAM WITH THE CLOSED LOW ENTERING ND AND
WAS FOLLOWED A BIT MORE CLOSELY. WE SLOWED IT DOWN A BIT AS PER THE
SREF MEAN. THE 00Z NAM/S TRACK WHL EDGING OFSHR LOOKS LIKE ITS TOO
DEEP INTO THE COLD AIR AND THERE HAS BEEN A CONVERGENCE BTWN THE
ECMWF/UKMET/CAN GGEM AND GFS WITH A NEARLY PERFECT TRACK FOR HEAVY
SNOW FOR OUR CWA. THE CAVEAT HAS BEEN THE EUROPEAN MDLS THAT HAVE
FAILED TO CLOSE THE H5 LOW WHEN IT PASSES THRU OUR CWA. THEY HAVE
BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THAT JUST AS MANY OF THE NAM/GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS HAVE DONE OTHERWISE. THE UPSHOT IS THE EURO SOLUTIONS WOULD
GIVE US THE LOW END OF THE CURRENT FCST ACCUM RANGES WE ARE ABT TO
ISSUE. THE 00Z GFS/NAM WOULD SLIDE US TWD THE HIER RANGE OF OUR FCST
AMTS. EVEN THE GFS AND NAM EMPHASIZE NJ AS BEING HIT THE HARDEST SO
CONFID ABT THE WATCH IS SHAKIEST IN OUR NWRN ZNS BECAUSE OF DISTANCE
AND ALG THE SERN ZNS BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY ABT THE AMT OF RAIN THAT
WILL FALL AND THE EFFECT OF THE RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THE EVENT ON SUNDAY)...
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM GREAT LAKES HAVE DONE AN EXCELLENT JOB OF
SENDING ANOTHER LAKE EFFECT STREAMER INTO THE NRN PART OF OUR CWA.
WAA WILL CONT THRUT THE DAY TODAY WITH THE DEEPEST MSTR AGAIN FCSTD
FOR OUR NRN ZONES. WE WILL KEEP CHC POPS GOING UP N AND BECAUSE OF
THE FCSTD OMEGA WILL JKEEP THE SPRINKLE/FLURRY WORDING ELSW. BASED
ON H8 TEMP FCST AND THICK CONSIDERATION...A BLEND OF GFS MOS AND NAM
MOS LOOKS LIKE THE WAY TO GO. FOR TNGT...THE GFS AND UKMET ARE
OOZING SOME LGT PCPN INTO OUR SRN ZONES. BLV THAT RIDGING THAT HAS
TO FORM AS THE ND CLSD LOW DIGS SWD WILL HELP EVAP ANY PCPN CHGS. IN
ADTN COLLAB CONSENSUS BLVS THAT THE GFS MAY BE A BIT TOO FAST. ITS
POSN SAT EVE IS ABT 120 MILES FTHR S THAN IT WAS WITH LAST NGT/S RUN.
WITH THE RDGG...THE EXPANSE OF CLOUDS MAY BE OVERDONE. FOR NOW THE
RDGG DOES NOT LOOK THAT SHARP IN OUR OPINION TO EVAP THEM. IF WE ARE
WRONG...THE MINS WILL BE TOO HIGH.
NOW FOR THE MAIN SHOW...THE GFS IS ABOUT 4MB DEEPER THAN THE SREF
MEAN (ALTHO JUST ABT RIGHT ON WITH THE CAN RGEM) AND A BIT FTHR TO
THE E. THE FLAVOR OF THIS WINTER HAS BEEN FOR INTENSIFICATION TO OCR
A BIT SLOR THAN THE MDLS HAVE ANTICIPATED. ANYONE ONE SLICES
THOUGH...THIS WILL BE AN INTENSE AND RAPIDLY DEEPENING SYS. THE
INTENSE WAA DOES NOT GET CRANKING UNTIL THE AFTN ON THE GFS AND IF
WE SLOW IT DOWN ABT THREE HRS THE LATE AFTN AND MAINLY S AND E OF
I95. DUE TO THE FLOW OFF THE WARM WATER AND CRITICAL LLVL
THICKNESSES WILL BE CLOSE TO RAIN/SNOW LINE. PCPN FALLING DURG THE
DAY TOO MIGHT MELT SOMEWHAT AS IT FALLS AS WET BULB ZERO TEMPS WILL
ALSO BE ARND FRZG. THIS IS LESS OF A CONCERN FTHR N AND W. BY SAT
NGT...THE FGEN FRCG AND FCSTD WAA MAKE THIS AN AROUND I95 CORRIDOR
AND POINT SEWD AND A MOST OF NEW JERSEY STORM. AT THIS JUNCTURE IT
IS DIFFICULT TO SLICE OUR NWRN ZNS OUT OF THE WATCH (WHICH MEANS
PTNL NOT CERTAINTY) BUT WOULD THINK IF THE SEWD DRIFT CONTS...THE
PLACE WHERE WRNG CRIT MAY NOT OCR WOULD BE OUR NWRN PA ZNS. WE HAVE
BEEN WRONG BEFORE FOR NOT TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE HIER RATIOS THOSE
LOCATIONS HAVE. IN SPITE OF NOT HAVING AS AN EXUBERANT WAA...THE ABE
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING THE COINCIDENCE OF FCSTD OMEGAS IN THE
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH AREAS. BY THE BY AVP DOES NOT.
NOW ALG THE I95 AND NRN NJ FOR THIS SPECIFIC GFS RUN THE FCST MDL IS
FCSTG STEEP LAPSE RATES BTWN 700-500 MB (GT 7C/KM) ALG WITH STEADY
THETAE TEMPS WITH HEIGHT AS WELL AS SOME OUTRIGHT QPV. THIS ALL
PACKAGES INTO THE PTNL FOR THUNDER. THE ABILITY FOR THIS TO BE KEYED
IN THE RIGHT LOCATION THIS FAR IN ADVANCE (AND WHETHER TRUE AT ALL -
IF THE H5 LOW CLOSES AFTER IT PASSES US ALA THE EUROS ITS A NO GO)
IS NOT THERE. THIS WILL HAVE TO WATCHED IN SUBSEQUENT RUNS. THE SREF
MEAN QPF FOR PHL IS ABT .85 WATER EQUIVALENT AND IS REASON WE TONED
DOWN THE GFS/NAM QPF A BIT. THE REASON WE DID NOT GO DOWN AS MUCH AS
WE TRADITIONALLY WOULD IS BECAUSE OF THE CONVECTIVE CAPABILTITY.
THIS IS GETTING INTO THE MESOSCALE...BUT THE INCRG FGEN FRCG IS
FAVORING THE NRN HALF OF NJ AS RECEIVING THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMTS
(MAYBE THE GREATEST CHC OF THUNDER ALSO?) IN OUR CWA. THE THUNDER
PTNL IS A THOUGHT AND DON/T WANT TO BOX LATER SHIFTS IN. WE WILL
MNTN IN THE WATCH STATEMENT BUT NOT INCLUDE IN THE WORDED ZONES.
ALG THE SERN ZNS CONFID IS NOT HIGH AT ALL ABT SNOWFALL AMTS AS
SFC TEMP FCSTS ARE SUPPOSE TO REMAIN HIGH AND THE R/S LLVL THICK
PIVOT ALG THE CSTL COUNTIES. THIS WILL DEPEND UPON A MORE EWD TRACK
TO GET MORE SNOW AND IN ADNT THE WATER EQUIVALENT/SNOW RATIO S/B
LWR. LO-MID 40S OCEAN TEMPS ADD TO THE UNCERTAINTY. WE EXPECT THE
EVENT TO BE JUST ABT OVER BY SUN MRNG...WE WILL CONT TO CARRY SOME
LOWER CHCS IN ERN ZNS AS PER THE SLOR THAN GFS SOLN BEING ACCEPTED.
&&
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
AFTER THE WEEKEND EVENT, THINGS QUIET DOWN A BIT. AS OF NOW, WELL
HAVE TO WAIT FOR AT LEAST THE MID WEEK PERIOD FOR ANYTHING
SUBSTANTIAL AND WITH THE RETORGRADING WRN NOAM RDG THE PATTERN WILL
GET BRIEFLY MILDER. BUT FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A LONG TIME REAL COLD
AIR WILL BE BUILDING IN CANADA AND WITH THE FCSTD EPO EXPECTED TO
RMN NEGATIVE...IT IS A SIGN THAT WINTER IS NOT OVER. WE WILL LOP ABT
A CAT OFF THE MAX/MINS BECAUSE OF THE NEW SNOW FOR SUN/MON.
&&
.AVIATION...
SCT AC AND CI MOST AREAS THIS MORNING EXCEPT FOR THE SNOW SHOWERS
THAT HAVE BEEN MOVING ESE ACROSS CENTRAL NJ. CIGS IN THE SNOW
SHOWERS GENERALLY 3 TO 5 THSD FT BUT IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS HAVE
DROPPED TO MVFR CONDS WITH BRIEF IFR VSBY. ONCE THE SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES MOVE OUT OF OUR AREA EARLY THIS MORNING, INCREASING
AND THICKENING AC AND CI WILL BE THE RULE.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING TO NEAR 25 KT WELL OFFSHORE EARLY THIS
MORNING, BUT SHOULD BE DIMINISHING DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THEN WELL WAIT FOR THE COASTAL STORM LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
IT APPEARS AS IF WINDS WILL BE INCREASING LATE SATURDAY AND WE MAY
HAVE WIND GUSTS OVER 25 KT TOWARD EVENING. SINCE GALE WARNINGS WILL
PROBABLY BE NEEDED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, I WILL NOT PUT UP
THE SCA, EVEN THOUGH CONDITIONS MAY REACH CRITERIA LATE IN THE
THIRD PERIOD. IT IS THEN FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES UP THE
COAST TO A POSITION JUST EAST OF CAPE COD SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE UPCOMING STORM WILL DEVELOP INTO A
MAJOR NORTHEASTER. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST NEAR THE VIRGINIA-NORTH CAROLINA BORDER LATE SATURDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL BE DETERIORATING VERY QUICKLY MID DAY SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT HIGH END GALES(36-46 KTS)
WILL OCCUR AND MAY REACH STORM FORCE(>47 KTS) AS THE STORM TRACKS TO
THE NORTHEAST.
ANYONE PLANNING A CANYON TRIP SHOULD CERTAINLY CHECK OUR NEARSHORE
FCST ON OUR WEB SITE AND THE CANYON FORECAST FROM THE OCEAN
PREDICTION CENTERS WEB SITE AT WWW.OPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
&&
.TIDES...
WE ARE IN A LOW ASTRONOMICAL TIDE PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE STORM COULD
BRING STRONG ONSHORE WINDS KICK THE TIDE LEVELS UP TO AROUND 2-3 FT
BRIEFLY. THIS MIGHT PRODUCE LOCALIZED MINOR TIDAL FLOODING. THIS LOW
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE RATHER QUICKLY, MEANING THAT THIS WOULD BE
PRIMARILY AN OCEAN FRONT(BARRIER ISLAND)CONCERN. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MAKE ADJUSTMENTS ACCORDINGLY. LOOKS LIKE A ONE HIGH TIDE EVENT WITH
THE GREATEST CONCERN BEING SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
ZONES SHLD GO ABT 430 AM.
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-067>071 FROM NOON
SATURDAY TO 9 AM SUNDAY.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>020-026-027 FROM
NOON SATURDAY TO 9 AM SUNDAY.
...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR NJZ021>025 FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM
SUNDAY.
DE...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR DEZ001 FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 9 AM
SUNDAY.
...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR DEZ002>004 FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM
SUNDAY.
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MDZ008-012 FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 9 AM
SUNDAY.
...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MDZ015-019-020 FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6
AM SUNDAY.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
OVERVIEW/SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...KRUZDLO/GIGI
AVIATION/MARINE...RPWHazardous weather outlook, Feb 9, 4:33 AM EST, 23 hours 44 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 433 AM EST THU FEB 9 2006 ANZ430-431-450>455-DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001- 007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-060>062-067>071-100945- DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE- DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE- COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM- NEW CASTLE-KENT DE-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD- QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON- SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM- GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND- ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC- COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH- NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA- 433 AM EST THU FEB 9 2006 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, DELAWARE, THE NORTHERN MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE AND NEW JERSEY, EXCLUDING THE FIVE NORTHEAST COUNTIES. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ABOUT A POSSIBLE WINTER STORM FOR CALENDAR DAY SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL MANY DIFFERENT MODEL SOLUTIONS WHICH WILL HOPEFULLY COME INTO AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL OF BEING THE HEAVIEST SNOW OF THIS WINTER TO DATE. NO ADDITIONAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE OUTLOOK PERIOD. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. TFG
Nearby
Winter Storm Watches in New Jersey, 2006Winter Storm Watches in Pennsylvania, 2006Winter Storm Watches in Maryland, 2006Every winter storm watch in 2006
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.