Severe Thunderstorm Warning 38, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
325 PM CDT MON MAY 29 2006

.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
FORECAST CONCERN NEAR TERM...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHEAST
CWA AT LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING.  SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT HAS SLOWED
MOVEMENT OF SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR A MEDFORD/WINONA LINE AS
OF 3AM.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS WEAK SHORT WAVE LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS IOWA...WHICH WILL MOVE INTO WISCONSIN THIS
MORNING.  WILL HAVE TO RETAIN SOME POPS AT LEAST DURING THE MORNING
HOURS AS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. DEBRIS CIRRUS WILL DISSIPATE DURING
THE MORNING WITH SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED MUCH OF THE DAY...AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN.  WILL USE MET GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES AS SIGNIFICANT COOLING
NOT REALLY ANTICIPATED.

MODELS SHOW SOME DISCREPANCY IN TIMING OF NEXT SHORT WAVE.  TRENDS
OF GFS WOULD BRING BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COMING IN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. WILL FOLLOW THIS TREND AND MENTION
HIGHER POPS THEN.  SYSTEM PULLS EAST THURSDAY WITH ONLY SLIGHT
COOLING ANTICIPATED.  AGAIN ACCEPT WARMER MET GUIDANCE OVERALL.

LONGER TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MAINTAINED SOME LOW CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTHERN CWA DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH THE SURFACE WAVE MOVING THROUGH. DRY WEATHER
THEREAFTER. HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THEN NEAR CLIMATOLOGY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. HEAT BEGINS TO RETURN ON TUESDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.

&&

DWE/RAH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
356 AM CDT MON MAY 29 2006

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
301200-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
356 AM CDT MON MAY 29 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA THIS MORNING...AND
INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN LATER TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT WILL RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE.
THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE THUNDERSTORMS BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS FROM EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
216 PM CDT MON MAY 29 2006

MNZ042-043-291945-
MORRISON-TODD-
216 PM CDT MON MAY 29 2006

AT 213 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THAT THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING 11 MILES SOUTH OF
STAPLES...OR 18 MILES NORTH OF LONG PRAIRIE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 35 MPH.

ONE HALF INCH HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

THESE STORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE COMMUNITY OF MOTLEY.

LS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
232 PM CDT MON MAY 29 2006

MNZ043-044-292015-
MILLE LACS-MORRISON-
232 PM CDT MON MAY 29 2006

AT 230 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ONE HALF INCH HAIL AND
WINDS UP TO 50 MPH NEAR LITTLE FALLS.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH...WILL AFFECT THE
COMMUNITIES OF PIERZ...LASTRUP...HARDING...AND VINELAND BETWEEN 230
PM CDT AND 315 PM CDT.

LS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
243 PM CDT MON MAY 29 2006

MNZ070-077-292045-
DAKOTA-RICE-
243 PM CDT MON MAY 29 2006

AT 239 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR FARIBAULT...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT THE COMMUNITIES OF
BRIDGEWATER...DUNDAS...NORTHFIELD...AND RANDOLPH BETWEEN 245 PM CDT
AND 345 PM CDT.

ONE HALF INCH HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
323 PM CDT MON MAY 29 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0318 PM     HAIL             CLEARWATER              45.41N 94.04W
05/29/2006  M0.75 INCH       WRIGHT             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0318 PM     HAIL             CLEARWATER              45.41N 94.04W
05/29/2006  E0.75 INCH       WRIGHT             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

LRS