Alert archive / Minnesota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2006

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 255, NWS Twin Cities, MN

October 3, 20064 counties in Minnesota

NWS Twin Cities, MN issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Oct 3, 2006, 10:49 PM CDT for 4 counties in Minnesota. It was in force for 56 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Oct 3, 2006, 10:49 PM CDT (03:49 UTC)
Expired: Oct 3, 2006, 11:45 PM CDT
In force: 56 min
Issued by: NWS Twin Cities, MN
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

Counties Anoka County, MN, Hennepin County, MN, Sherburne County, MN, Wright County, MN

The radar

The Minneapolis radar (KMPX), 47 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:52 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Oct 3, 3:34 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	8 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Minneapolis, MN (KMPX), launched 00:00Z, 3.8 hours before the alert went out and 47 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 746 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -217 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 880 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 65 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 296 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 530 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 23.9

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS53 KMPX 040350
SVRMPX
MNC003-053-141-171-040445-
/O.NEW.KMPX.SV.W.0255.061004T0349Z-061004T0445Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1049 PM CDT TUE OCT 3 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SHERBURNE COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
  WRIGHT COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
  ANOKA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
  HENNEPIN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

* UNTIL 1145 PM CDT

* AT 1048 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...  
  CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR 
  ST MICHAEL...OR ABOUT 15 MILES WEST OF ANOKA...AND MOVING          
  EAST-NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  ST MICHAEL...
  ROGERS...
  ELK RIVER...
  ANOKA...
  EAST BETHEL...

LAT...LON 4530 9380 4516 9377 4519 9315 4539 9323

$$

JPR/MDB

2 follow-up statements

000 
WWUS53 KMPX 040418
SVSMPX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1116 PM CDT TUE OCT 3 2006

MNC141-171-040426-
/O.CAN.KMPX.SV.W.0255.000000T0000Z-061004T0445Z/
SHERBURNE MN-WRIGHT MN-
1116 PM CDT TUE OCT 3 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WRIGHT AND SHERBURNE COUNTIES
IS CANCELLED...

LAT...LON 4536 9351 4526 9350 4511 9342 4516 9312
      4540 9309

$$

MNC003-053-040445-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0255.000000T0000Z-061004T0445Z/
ANOKA MN-HENNEPIN MN-
1116 PM CDT TUE OCT 3 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1145 PM CDT 
FOR EXTREME NORTHERN HENNEPIN AND ANOKA COUNTIES...

AT 1114 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS 
LOCATED NEAR OAK PARK...OR ABOUT 7 MILES EAST OF ANOKA...AND MOVING 
EAST AT 50 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE EAST BETHEL...COON 
RAPIDS...CHAMPLIN...BLAINE...LINO LAKES AND ANOKA.

LAT...LON 4536 9351 4526 9350 4511 9342 4516 9312
      4540 9309

$$

JPR/MDB

000 
WWUS53 KMPX 040442
SVSMPX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1142 PM CDT TUE OCT 3 2006

MNC003-053-040452-
/O.EXP.KMPX.SV.W.0255.000000T0000Z-061004T0445Z/
ANOKA MN-HENNEPIN MN-
1142 PM CDT TUE OCT 3 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR HENNEPIN AND ANOKA COUNTIES
EXPIRES AT 1145 PM CDT...

SEVERE STORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
IS NOT EXPECTED.

LAT...LON 4536 9351 4526 9350 4511 9342 4516 9312
      4540 9309

$$

JPR/MDB

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Twin Cities, MN wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Oct 3, 2:22 PM CDT, 8 hours 27 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 3, 2:22 PM CDT, 8 hours 27 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
222 PM CDT TUE OCT 3 2006

.DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATL IMAGERY HAD DEPICTED A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO WYOMING. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
STRONG FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT OVER SOUTHERN MN AND
WI...WILL PRODUCE LARGE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA OVER MUCH OF CWA INTO
EARLY TONIGHT.  MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN BUILDING AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE CNRL CONUS THRU THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.

THE NEAR TERM FORECAST CONCERN IS THE SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE ARE PARTICULAR
CONCERN NEAR AND IN THE GENL VICINITY OF SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WHERE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES EXIST.  18Z UPPER
AIR PLOT FROM KMPX SHOWED SOMEWHAT OF A CAP JUST ABOVE 800 MB. THIS
CAP SHOULD ERODE ONCE THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OR OUTFLOW FROM EXISTING
TSRA HELP DESTABLIZE AIRMASS.

ON THE SFC MAP...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING OVER SOUTHERN MN AND SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. EARLIER...SFC DEWPOINTS HAD POOLED INTO THE MIDDLE 60S
ALONG AND IN THE VICINITY OF SFC BOUNDARY.  ON-GOING CONVECTION OVER
THE DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN MN...SHOULD SPREAD EAST AND EXPAND
SOUTHEAST INTO THE WARM SECTOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  SFC
WINDS HAVE VEERED TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
CWA.  SFC WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT.
AIRMASS HAD BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPES OVER 1200 J/KG AND
LIFTED INDICES MINUS 4 DEG CELSIUS OVER SOUTH CNTRL MN. LCL HEIGHTS
WERE GENERALLY LESS THAN 3000 FEET AGL. SFC WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN EARLIER THIS EVENING.  WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN MONTANA
INTO CNTRL ROCKIES. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS BY MIDNIGHT.  MDCRS DATA INDICATED A 70 JET MAX
EXTENDING INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY INCREASE
THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PROFILES OVER OUR CWA THIS EVENING.
FORECAST 0-3KM VGP WILL LIKELY BE AROUND .25 TO .35 WHICH IS IDEALLY
CONDUCIVE AT LEAST F2 TORNADOES.

AFORMENTIONED...APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL LIKELY INCREASE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT OVER MUCH OF THE REST OF OUR CWA.

DRY AND MILDER WEATHER ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
TEMP SLOWLY MODERATING BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S BY
FRIDAY.

LONGER TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
CONTINUING AGREEMENT OF FRONT MOVING ACROSS AREA ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY EVENING. 06Z GFS DID NOT SEEM TOO GOOD WITH WAVE ACTION ON
SUNDAY/MONDAY SO HAVE KEPT MOST OF THOSE PERIODS DRY. LOOKS QUITE
MILD FOR SATURDAY AHEAD OF FRONT. HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPS INTO UPPER
70S IN SPOTS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A NEED FOR SOME LOW 80S
IN LATER FORECASTS DEPENDING ON TIMING OF FRONT. NEXT TROUGH A BIT
OF A QUESTION FOR TUESDAY. LOOK LIKE A NW FLOW WAVE AND MAY NOT HAVE
MUCH MOISTURE WITH IT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.

&&

Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 3, 3:36 AM CDT, 19 hours 13 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
336 AM CDT TUE OCT 3 2006

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
040845-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
336 AM CDT TUE OCT 3 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE MINNESOTA AND IOWA
BORDER TOWARD MID AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...WITH TORNADOES ALSO POSSIBLE. REMAIN ALERT TO CHANGING
WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND PREPARE TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER WARNINGS BE NEEDED IN YOUR AREA TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

KAT

In the hours before

Local storm report, Oct 3, 8:25 PM CDT, 2 hours 24 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
825 PM CDT TUE OCT 03 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0821 PM     HAIL             12 S EAU CLAIRE         44.65N 91.49W
10/03/2006  E1.00 INCH       EAU CLAIRE         WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KME

Special weather statement, Oct 3, 8:29 PM CDT, 2 hours 20 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
829 PM CDT TUE OCT 3 2006

MNZ065>067-040230-
MCLEOD-RENVILLE-SIBLEY-
829 PM CDT TUE OCT 3 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR MCLEOD...RENVILLE AND SIBLEY
COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM CDT...

AT 826 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR FAIRFAX...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF DIMES IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN SIBLEY...SOUTHEASTERN RENVILLE AND SOUTHERN MCLEOD
COUNTIES...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR
POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD
SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

Local storm report, Oct 3, 10:14 PM CDT, 35 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1014 PM CDT TUE OCT 03 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1008 PM     HAIL             EAGAN                   44.82N 93.16W
10/03/2006  M0.75 INCH       DAKOTA             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KME

Local storm report, Oct 3, 10:23 PM CDT, 26 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1023 PM CDT TUE OCT 03 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1022 PM     HAIL             INVER GROVE HEIGHTS     44.83N 93.06W
10/03/2006  E0.75 INCH       DAKOTA             MN   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

KME

Special weather statement, Oct 3, 10:25 PM CDT, 24 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1025 PM CDT TUE OCT 3 2006

MNZ063-WIZ023-024-040430-
PIERCE-ST. CROIX-WASHINGTON-
1025 PM CDT TUE OCT 3 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR WASHINGTON...ST. CROIX AND PIERCE
COUNTIES UNTIL 1130 PM CDT...

AT 1022 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR COTTAGE GROVE...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. SOME CITIES
AFFECTED ARE AFTON...RIVER FALLS...AND BALDWIN.

JPR/MDB

Local storm report, Oct 3, 10:41 PM CDT, 8 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1041 PM CDT TUE OCT 03 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 PM     HAIL             HENDERSON               44.53N 93.91W
10/03/2006  E0.88 INCH       SIBLEY             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KME

The office that day

Everything else NWS Twin Cities, MN issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Oct 3, 10:04 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	Dakota, Hennepin	26 min
Oct 3, 10:33 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	Le Sueur	27 min
Oct 3, 10:44 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	Scott	46 min
Oct 3, 11:10 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	Dakota	50 min
Oct 3, 11:29 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	Scott	34 min
Oct 3, 11:32 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	Washington	28 min
Oct 3, 11:59 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	Dakota	46 min
Oct 4, 12:17 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	Le Sueur, Rice	58 min
Oct 4, 1:26 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	Martin	49 min
Oct 4, 1:49 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	Blue Earth, Watonwan	41 min
Oct 4, 2:00 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	Faribault	60 min
Oct 4, 2:35 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	Steele, Waseca	37 min
Oct 4, 2:43 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	Freeborn	62 min
Oct 4, 2:29 PM CDT	Frost Advisory	MPX	Anoka, Benton, Chisago, Douglas, Isanti, Kanabec and 12 more	15 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Minnesota, 2006 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2006

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.