Severe Thunderstorm Warning 249, NWS Twin Cities, MN

000 
WWUS53 KMPX 032127
SVSMPX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
426 PM CDT TUE OCT 3 2006

MNC065-032200-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0249.000000T0000Z-061003T2200Z/
KANABEC MN-
426 PM CDT TUE OCT 3 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT
FOR KANABEC COUNTY...

AT 424 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 65 
MPH AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES WEST OF 
WARMAN...OR ABOUT 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF MORA...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 
MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE WOODLAND...WARMAN...KROSCHEL...AND 
QUAMBA.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS 
IN MORRISON COUNTY.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 4615 9343 4598 9344 4597 9350 4587 9352
      4592 9315 4598 9312 4600 9306 4616 9306

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
222 PM CDT TUE OCT 3 2006

.DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATL IMAGERY HAD DEPICTED A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO WYOMING. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
STRONG FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT OVER SOUTHERN MN AND
WI...WILL PRODUCE LARGE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA OVER MUCH OF CWA INTO
EARLY TONIGHT.  MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN BUILDING AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE CNRL CONUS THRU THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.

THE NEAR TERM FORECAST CONCERN IS THE SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE ARE PARTICULAR
CONCERN NEAR AND IN THE GENL VICINITY OF SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WHERE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES EXIST.  18Z UPPER
AIR PLOT FROM KMPX SHOWED SOMEWHAT OF A CAP JUST ABOVE 800 MB. THIS
CAP SHOULD ERODE ONCE THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OR OUTFLOW FROM EXISTING
TSRA HELP DESTABLIZE AIRMASS.

ON THE SFC MAP...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING OVER SOUTHERN MN AND SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. EARLIER...SFC DEWPOINTS HAD POOLED INTO THE MIDDLE 60S
ALONG AND IN THE VICINITY OF SFC BOUNDARY.  ON-GOING CONVECTION OVER
THE DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN MN...SHOULD SPREAD EAST AND EXPAND
SOUTHEAST INTO THE WARM SECTOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  SFC
WINDS HAVE VEERED TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
CWA.  SFC WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT.
AIRMASS HAD BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPES OVER 1200 J/KG AND
LIFTED INDICES MINUS 4 DEG CELSIUS OVER SOUTH CNTRL MN. LCL HEIGHTS
WERE GENERALLY LESS THAN 3000 FEET AGL. SFC WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN EARLIER THIS EVENING.  WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN MONTANA
INTO CNTRL ROCKIES. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS BY MIDNIGHT.  MDCRS DATA INDICATED A 70 JET MAX
EXTENDING INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY INCREASE
THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PROFILES OVER OUR CWA THIS EVENING.
FORECAST 0-3KM VGP WILL LIKELY BE AROUND .25 TO .35 WHICH IS IDEALLY
CONDUCIVE AT LEAST F2 TORNADOES.

AFORMENTIONED...APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL LIKELY INCREASE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT OVER MUCH OF THE REST OF OUR CWA.

DRY AND MILDER WEATHER ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
TEMP SLOWLY MODERATING BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S BY
FRIDAY.

LONGER TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
CONTINUING AGREEMENT OF FRONT MOVING ACROSS AREA ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY EVENING. 06Z GFS DID NOT SEEM TOO GOOD WITH WAVE ACTION ON
SUNDAY/MONDAY SO HAVE KEPT MOST OF THOSE PERIODS DRY. LOOKS QUITE
MILD FOR SATURDAY AHEAD OF FRONT. HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPS INTO UPPER
70S IN SPOTS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A NEED FOR SOME LOW 80S
IN LATER FORECASTS DEPENDING ON TIMING OF FRONT. NEXT TROUGH A BIT
OF A QUESTION FOR TUESDAY. LOOK LIKE A NW FLOW WAVE AND MAY NOT HAVE
MUCH MOISTURE WITH IT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
336 AM CDT TUE OCT 3 2006

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
040845-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
336 AM CDT TUE OCT 3 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE MINNESOTA AND IOWA
BORDER TOWARD MID AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...WITH TORNADOES ALSO POSSIBLE. REMAIN ALERT TO CHANGING
WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND PREPARE TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER WARNINGS BE NEEDED IN YOUR AREA TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

KAT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
359 PM CDT TUE OCT 03 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LASTRUP                 46.04N 94.06W
10/03/2006                   MORRISON           MN   PUBLIC

            WINDOWS BLOWN OUT.

0356 PM     HAIL             HILLMAN                 46.01N 93.89W
10/03/2006  M1.00 INCH       MORRISON           MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KME