Severe Thunderstorm Warning 49, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
725 PM CST MON MAR 20 2006

.UPDATE...HAVE CANCELLED ALL COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST MS FROM
TOR WATCH 103. CURRENT RADAR AND SAT LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
WEAKENING TREND OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA ATTM AS
MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING MOVES NORTHWARD. SFC BASED INSTABILITY OR
CAPES ALSO SHOW A WEAKENING TREND ESPECIALLY WHERE MUCH OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OCCURRED EARLIER THIS EVENING. LATEST MODEL
RUNS FROM BOTH THE GFS AND RUC DEPICT A SLOW WEAKENING TREND THROUGH
09Z SUGGESTING A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER AND FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FOR MUCH OF THE CWFA THROUGH EARLY TUE MORNING. WILL LIKELY CLEAR
MORE COUNTIES OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA BEFORE 10 PM.

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...
     COASTAL SANTA ROSA...COASTAL WALTON...INLAND ESCAMBIA...
     INLAND OKALOOSA...AND INLAND SANTA ROSA.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM...AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED FOR ADJUSTMENT TO MODERATE RISK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
745 AM CST MON MAR 20 2006

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-211200-
BALDWIN COASTAL-BALDWIN INLAND-BUTLER-CHOCTAW-CLARKE-CONECUH-
COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-ESCAMBIA COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-GEORGE-
GREENE-MOBILE COASTAL-MOBILE INLAND-MONROE-OKALOOSA COASTAL-
OKALOOSA INLAND-PERRY-SANTA ROSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND-STONE-
WASHINGTON-WAYNE-WILCOX-
745 AM CST MON MAR 20 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...INLAND
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...AND THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN AND
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS FURTHER
TO THE NORTH...THE AREA SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE. AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
AND TRACK ALONG THE WARM FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA BY MID AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AROUND MID AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND SPREAD EAST INTO SOUTHWEST ALABAMA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...AND THEN SOUTHEAST OF I-65 LATER
IN THE EVENING.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS
CHARACTERIZED BY A VERY WARM AND MOIST LOWER ATMOSPHERE COMBINED
WITH MODERATE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. THE GREATEST CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD OCCUR
NORTHWEST OF I-65 BETWEEN 3 AND 9 PM. THIS IS WHERE THE MOST
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL RESIDE ALONG WITH THE COMBINATION OF HIGHEST
WIND SHEAR VALUES. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLOOKED THE
ENTIRE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER...WITH A MODERATE RISK NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM CENTRAL
PERRY COUNTY MISSISSIPPI THROUGH NORTHWEST WASHINGTON COUNTY ALABAMA
TO NORTHEAST CHOCTAW COUNTY ALABAMA. STAY TUNED TO LATER OUTLOOKS ON
THIS DEVELOPING SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY ALONG THE BEACHES OF THE
ALABAMA AND WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE DUE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS.

STRONG ONSHORE WINDS WILL PROVIDE HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS FOR
SMALL CRAFT OVER THE MARINE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL
MAKE HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT OVER THE MARINE
AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO BRING MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THE DRY AIR MASS...
SUNNY SKIES...AND WINDY CONDITIONS...WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF
WILDFIRES.

OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL MAY
BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE
WEATHER...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST OF I-65.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
412 PM CST MON MAR 20 2006

ALZ051-202300-
CHOCTAW-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...
412 PM CST MON MAR 20 2006

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS MOVING INTO WESTERN CHOCTAW COUNTY...

AT 408 PM CST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES WEST OF MELVIN...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...
WATER VALLEY...ROCK SPRINGS...HODGEWOOD...TOXEY...WIMBLY AND LOU
THROUGH 500 PM CST.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE SMALL HAIL...DANGEROUS CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING... AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH...WHICH COULD
DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS OR BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL
OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM HAS
PASSED.

THIS STORM COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...RESULTING IN BRIEF PONDING OF WATER AROUND LOW
LYING AREAS. REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO WATER COVERED
ROADWAYS. THE DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW A SAFE CROSSING.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CST MONDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.