Red Flag Warning 67, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1000 AM CDT SUN OCT 15 2006

.UPDATE...JUST MINOR WORDING CHANGES EXPECTED FOR THE ZONE FORECAST
THIS MORNING. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO THE WEST AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS COAST AND ISENTROPIC
LIFTING INCREASES. EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES HOLDING OFF UNTIL OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NEED SOME TIME TO SATURATE FROM THE
TOP DOWN. LOOKS LIKE SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN IS ON THE WAY. ALSO...A
WINDY DAY EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE
(850 JET NEAR 50 KNOTS) AND WE ARE CURRENTLY CONSIDERING A WIND
ADVISORY(25 TO 39 MPH FOR 1 HOUR OR LONGER) FOR PARTS OF THE COASTAL
ZONES.

.MARINE...SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED ON THE MARINE UPDATE THIS
MORNING. HAVE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS IN ALL ZONES W/ SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS NOW FROM 0 TO 60 NM. CURRENTLY HAVE SCEC IN MOBILE BAY
AND EXPECT THAT TO BE UPGRADED THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO GALE FORCE POSSIBLE. CURRENTLY NOT ANTICIPATING A GALE
WARNING...BUT CONDITIONS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. SEAS WILL RANGE
FROM 7 TO 11 ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS BY LATE TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY.

UPDATED WWA SECTION BELOW.

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: MOBILE BAY.

&&

13/JC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
100 PM CDT SUN OCT 15 2006

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-
161200-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
MOBILE BAY-BALDWIN COASTAL-BALDWIN INLAND-BUTLER-CHOCTAW-CLARKE-
CONECUH-COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-ESCAMBIA COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-
GEORGE-GREENE-MOBILE COASTAL-MOBILE INLAND-MONROE-OKALOOSA COASTAL-
OKALOOSA INLAND-PERRY-SANTA ROSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND-STONE-
WASHINGTON-WAYNE-WILCOX-
100 PM CDT SUN OCT 15 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
ADJACENT GULF COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A STRONG ONSHORE WIND FLOW WILL CREATE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
ON THE SURF BEACHES OF THE ALABAMA AND WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

IN ADDITION...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING MOBILE BAY AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OVER THE MARINE AREA
SOUTH OF DAUPHIN ISLAND ARE POSSIBLE STARTING LATE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP...SOME OF THE RAINFALL COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. AS THE
AIRMASS BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST
THREAT WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND EXTREMELY HEAVY RAIN. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLOOKED
THE AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 43 FOR A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND NEAR THE COAST WITH 15 TO 25 MPH WINDS LIKELY. A WIND ADVISORY
MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON MONDAY.

THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS
BOATING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. A
FEW GUSTS TO GALE FORCE AREA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE COASTAL
WATERS ON MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ALSO...A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL EXIST ON MONDAY AS VERY
DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL EXIST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS OR EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS WILL NOT BE REQUIRED THROUGH TONIGHT.